UK leaves the EU... will Scotland get another referendum?

[Blue3]

If the UK leaves the EU (looking almost certain with the vote margin right now)... will Scotland get another referendum?

If it does, will Scottish independence win this time? Many of the Scots who voted to stay in the UK did so to keep the UK in the EU.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If the UK leaves the EU (looking almost certain with the vote margin right now)... will Scotland get another referendum?

If it does, will Scottish independence win this time? Many of the Scots who voted to stay in the UK did so to keep the UK in the EU.

I think it's inevitable, and I think Scotland will leave the UK.  Meanwhile Northern Ireland will have a closed border (Edit: I mean, not a free border, but one with customs, etc.) with the Republic, having been dragged away from Europe by Unionists.  That won't cause any tension at all.

God help us all.

[afleitch]

I think we can organise this while working out means to join the EU/take Britain's slot and hopefully join the Euro, which sorts out the currency issue.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I think we can organise this while working out means to join the EU/take Britain's slot and hopefully join the Euro, which sorts out the currency issue.

In the 2014 referendum they said they would keep Sterling, lol.  Certainly joining the Euro is the sensible solution, even if there are drawbacks to monetary union.

[Vega]

I can't imagine Scotland voting to leave in a second referendum.

[morgieb]

Option 1 was inevitable after the 2015 election. This merely fast-tracks Scexit.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If I were a Scot living in England, or an English living in Scotland, facing the prospect of a hard national border, this would be a very sad day for me.

[Dereich]

If I were a Scot living in England, or an English living in Scotland, facing the prospect of a hard national border, this would be a very sad day for me.

There are now 1.2 million Britons and 3 million EU residents now facing the prospect of hard national borders between the EU and the UK so it's sad days all around.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If the UK leaves the EU (looking almost certain with the vote margin right now)... will Scotland get another referendum?

If it does, will Scottish independence win this time? Many of the Scots who voted to stay in the UK did so to keep the UK in the EU.

I think it's inevitable, and I think Scotland will leave the UK.  Meanwhile Northern Ireland will have a closed border (Edit: I mean, not a free border, but one with customs, etc.) with the Republic, having been dragged away from Europe by Unionists.  That won't cause any tension at all.

God help us all.

There's no reason they couldn't have an open border like non EU member Switzerland has with its neighbors.

[afleitch]

My former 'No' friends are falling to Yes like dominoes right now.

[bullmoose88]

I think we can organise this while working out means to join the EU/take Britain's slot and hopefully join the Euro, which sorts out the currency issue.

As a small country I would not relish taking on the euro and losing monetary control.

Sad day for Britain. The small minded fearful won.

[Cassius]

I think we can organise this while working out means to join the EU/take Britain's slot and hopefully join the Euro, which sorts out the currency issue.

As a small country I would not relish taking on the euro and losing monetary control.

Sad day for Britain. The small minded fearful won.

Well, judging by the state of the interwebs this morning I'd say much of the Remain camp are pretty small-minded and fearful too.

[bullmoose88]

I think we can organise this while working out means to join the EU/take Britain's slot and hopefully join the Euro, which sorts out the currency issue.

As a small country I would not relish taking on the euro and losing monetary control.

Sad day for Britain. The small minded fearful won.

Well, judging by the state of the interwebs this morning I'd say much of the Remain camp are pretty small-minded and fearful too.

The Pound, FTSE are taking a beating. The dow and S&P futures are taking a beating. Us treasury yields are down and gold is up something like $100/ounce.  The economic fears are coming to pass.

I don't believe in secession. We fought a nasty not so little war over it and watched from here as the scots tabled independence, thankfully. But I wouldn't blame them for leaving now. Just don't take on the euro.

[Cassius]

I think we can organise this while working out means to join the EU/take Britain's slot and hopefully join the Euro, which sorts out the currency issue.

As a small country I would not relish taking on the euro and losing monetary control.

Sad day for Britain. The small minded fearful won.

Well, judging by the state of the interwebs this morning I'd say much of the Remain camp are pretty small-minded and fearful too.

The Pound, FTSE are taking a beating. The dow and S&P futures are taking a beating. Us treasury yields are down and gold is up something like $100/ounce.  The economic fears are coming to pass.

I don't believe in secession. We fought a nasty not so little war over it and watched from here as the scots tabled independence, thankfully. But I wouldn't blame them for leaving now. Just don't take on the euro.

These economic fears are coming to pass because, rather than examining the reality of the situation (the UK is still in the EU and will be for some time as the mandated process of negotiated withdrawal proceeds), people have decided to act like the UK has instantly left the EU, and fling all sorts of unsubstantiated rumour about adding fuel to the fire - not because of any specific problems instantly caused by a vote to leave.

[Gunnar Larsson]

I think we can organise this while working out means to join the EU/take Britain's slot and hopefully join the Euro, which sorts out the currency issue.

As a small country I would not relish taking on the euro and losing monetary control.

Sad day for Britain. The small minded fearful won.

Well, judging by the state of the interwebs this morning I'd say much of the Remain camp are pretty small-minded and fearful too.

The Pound, FTSE are taking a beating. The dow and S&P futures are taking a beating. Us treasury yields are down and gold is up something like $100/ounce.  The economic fears are coming to pass.

I don't believe in secession. We fought a nasty not so little war over it and watched from here as the scots tabled independence, thankfully. But I wouldn't blame them for leaving now. Just don't take on the euro.

These economic fears are coming to pass because, rather than examining the reality of the situation (the UK is still in the EU and will be for some time as the mandated process of negotiated withdrawal proceeds), people have decided to act like the UK has instantly left the EU, and fling all sorts of unsubstantiated rumour about adding fuel to the fire - not because of any specific problems instantly caused by a vote to leave.

Well, making money tends to have a lot to do with predicting the future (be it the value of the pound or how the market for a product will develop). It is a fairly safe the UK will leave the EU.., so it is sensible to factor that in. That said, the first reactions tend to be very swingy

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

I think we can organise this while working out means to join the EU/take Britain's slot and hopefully join the Euro, which sorts out the currency issue.

As a small country I would not relish taking on the euro and losing monetary control.

Sad day for Britain. The small minded fearful won.

Well, judging by the state of the interwebs this morning I'd say much of the Remain camp are pretty small-minded and fearful too.

there's a big qualitative difference between beïng fearful of actual problems and beïng fearful over a pack of lies ㄟ(ツ)ㄏ

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If I were a Scot living in England, or an English living in Scotland, facing the prospect of a hard national border, this would be a very sad day for me.

There are now 1.2 million Britons and 3 million EU residents now facing the prospect of hard national borders between the EU and the UK so it's sad days all around.

Very true.  But EU residents have only a few decades of integration and free movement.  Scotland has been one nation with England and Wales for over 300 years.

[Del Tachi]

Maybe Gibraltar will have a referendum to leave the UK

They voted over 95% for Remain

[Landslide Lyndon]

Maybe Gibraltar will have a referendum to leave the UK

They voted over 95% for Remain

Spain wasted no time to ask the UK for joint sovereignty. Apparently Gibraltarians have no inclination to become the Kaliningrad of the South.   

[ag]

If I were a Scot living in England, or an English living in Scotland, facing the prospect of a hard national border, this would be a very sad day for me.

There are now 1.2 million Britons and 3 million EU residents now facing the prospect of hard national borders between the EU and the UK so it's sad days all around.

Very true.  But EU residents have only a few decades of integration and free movement.  Scotland has been one nation with England and Wales for over 300 years.

Arguably, those most in trouble are those who have moved recently. A Scot whose ancestors moved to England back in 1750 is unlikely to care much about Scotland.

[Helsinkian]

What if the unionists win the second referendum as well? Will the issue then be put to rest for a generation, or will it be a "neverendum"?

[Simfan34]

Westminster would (and should) simply refuse to assent to another referendum, at least until negotiations are completed, whenever that may be. If Holyrood attempts to organize a referendum on its own and declares independence on the basis of that vote, there's more than sufficient national and international precedent from the last time a country tried to unilaterally secede from British rule to declare it illegal. And the prospect of the EU negotiating with a Scotland that has unilaterally declared independence would spook out the Spanish to such a degree that it would be a non-starter for that reason alone.

Heck, I'm willing to argue that Gibraltar is more likely to become an independent Commonwealth Realm sooner than Scotland would become independent. Or, at least, that's how it should be.

[ag]

Westminster would (and should) simply refuse to assent to another referendum, at least until negotiations are completed, whenever that may be. If Holyrood attempts to organize a referendum on its own and declares independence on the basis of that vote, there's more than sufficient national and international precedent from the last time a country tried to unilaterally secede from British rule to declare it illegal. And the prospect of the EU negotiating with a Scotland that has unilaterally declared independence would spook out the Spanish to such a degree that it would be a non-starter for that reason alone.

Heck, I'm willing to argue that Gibraltar is more likely to become an independent Commonwealth Realm sooner than Scotland would become independent. Or, at least, that's how it should be.

What the Scots should do, in the first place, is to start negotiations on EU admission, conditional on the future declaration of independence: so that they would be able to pretty much have the EU agreement on the ballot together with Independene as such.

Secondly, you forget the very serious fact that SNP, at this point, is not only the dominant party in Scotland, but also a 54-strong faction in Westminster. It is quite likely that if there is a new election they will keep that - much more likely, in fact, than that any English party gets an outright majority. At that point Scots would simply offer to support for government whichever party agrees to the Scottish referendum.

And, finally, do not be so sure of the Spaniards. Rajoy may or may not be there by the end of the year.  There is no elected government in Madrid, and it is not unlikely that the new government, when it emerges, will itself be forced into agreeing to negotiate Catalan referendum.  And even if it does not, it might choose to stress the difference between the Catalan and the Scottish situation. Indeed,  Spain is firmly in the EU, so it would be able to block Catalan admission. England decided to leave - tough for them. Why should the Castillians do for the British what the Britishers themselves decided not to?

[2952-0-0]

I just thought of another angle - in many languages, the term for "British" and "English" are one and the same, even in formal usage. They better find new terms quick.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I just thought of another angle - in many languages, the term for "British" and "English" are one and the same, even in formal usage. They better find new terms quick.

Really? In all languages I remotely know those are separate.