Who wins now?

[Sir Mohamed]

Still Hillary.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Polls in June mean nothing. Just wait until the GOP smear machine rallies behind their racist leader and starts to blame everything on Hispanics and blacks.

Uh, that's exactly what Trump has been doing all campaign. What type of voter hasn't already got behind him with all of his dogwhistles already but will just because he gets more blatant about it?

Really I'd say that a strategy that isn't going to win over whites who voted for Obama and would obviously increase minority turnout isn't a very good one, but that's just me.

[Human]

Hillary Clinton will probably still win by a relatively large margin, but "Brexit" should mildly benefit Donald Trump due to an inevitable slight economic slowdown as a result of this decision.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Hillary Clinton will probably still win by a relatively large margin, but "Brexit" should mildly benefit Donald Trump due to an inevitable slight economic slowdown as a result of this decision.

Even if that happens in the US, it won't for two years.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner/bet-history/donald-trump/today#all-history

Looks like odds on a Trump victory have shortened a bit, but not by much.

Right now the average across all betting sites is Clinton 76.01%, Trump 28.20% (Odds will always add up to more than 100% so the house wins).

[Suburbia]

Most likely Clinton.

[psychprofessor]

So, Trump essentially says Brexit is good for his business; praises the Scots for their wonderful decision, even though they voted overwhelmingly to remain and talks about how this vote is great for his resort. Oh yeah, and how David Cameron is "negotiating" to meet with him. Score another victory for Hillary for just letting Trump be Trump.

[evergreenarbor]

Hillary Clinton will probably still win by a relatively large margin, but "Brexit" should mildly benefit Donald Trump due to an inevitable slight economic slowdown as a result of this decision.

[Virginiá]

This election is a Tossup, regardless of Brexit or current polls.

How has it ever been a tossup?

1. Structural Democratic advantage in the EC
2. Clinton's massive money + infrastructure advantage over Trump
3. Polls showing Hillary leading in virtually all the polls, many times by landslide margins. On RCP, Trump has only led or tied in 11 or 12 polls out of too many to count since he announced
4. Fundamentals are not all that favorable to Trump right now
5. Demographics of the electorate were already unfavorable to Republicans before the election even started

And no this isn't a snide comment, I am genuinely curious why you believe this is currently a tossup.

[IceSpear]

It won't.

This forum overreacts to everything.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

It won't.

This forum overreacts to everything.

In fairness, if the election were a referendum between Trump's platform and Clinton's platform, without either candidate's actual personality on the ballot, I would be very, very concerned about the Trump side winning.

Not exactly. Hillary's would be hundreds of pages long and Trump's would be about eight questionable soundbites.

[President Johnson]

DONALD JOHN TRUMP. I said this before and will continue to do so.

[SillyAmerican]

This election is a Tossup, regardless of Brexit or current polls.

How has it ever been a tossup?

1. Structural Democratic advantage in the EC
2. Clinton's massive money + infrastructure advantage over Trump
3. Polls showing Hillary leading in virtually all the polls, many times by landslide margins. On RCP, Trump has only led or tied in 11 or 12 polls out of too many to count since he announced
4. Fundamentals are not all that favorable to Trump right now
5. Demographics of the electorate were already unfavorable to Republicans before the election even started

And no this isn't a snide comment, I am genuinely curious why you believe this is currently a tossup.

I'll take a crack at answering this.

1. Trump has identified issues that people are very concerned about, namely jobs and national security; if he can stay on message (granted, a very big "if"), Trump will do well on these issues
2. As Brexit demonstrates, there is legitimate concern over relinquishing a nation's sovereignty in the name of some globalized ideal, and I think that concern is being felt by citizens of the United States as well as those of the UK
3. Hillary Clinton represents the epitome of establishment politics, and this cycle there is a definite anti-establishment sentiment being expressed by the electorate, especially within the block of younger voters
4. Despite her having held the offices of Senator from New York and Secretary of State, supporters of Hillary Clinton still can't point to any firm legislative or foreign policy accomplishments of hers
5. There is still the little matter of the FBI investigation into Mrs. Clinton's use of a private email serve, which I do not believe we have heard the last of

While I agree with Virginia's five points, I do not believe they remove the legitimacy of these five counter-points, the consequence of which supports TN volunteer's statement that this election can be considered a tossup, at least for right now.

[Ljube]

I don't agree with Virginia's point No. one. It would be valid for all other Republicans, but not for Trump, who actually has a structural advantage in the EC and is more likely to win a close election than to lose it.

[/]

Sadly, I'm beginning to think that there's just enough idiots and BernieBros in America to swing this election towards Trump.

America won't get the leader it needs. They'll get the leader they deserve. Goodbye, liberty. Hello, Fascism.

Then why are they not showing up in the polls now?

(Brexit polls showed around a tie or very narrow remain lead so that's not comparable)

Yeah, but not until the last minute :/

[Chief Justice Keef]

You could blame the Brexit results on the observation that Leave voters were probably more inclined to vote than Remain voters.

In the US, Trump certainly has passionate supporters, but he also has a passionate base that's entirely against him.

[Suburbia]

I just came back from church an hour ago, and at church, it's a tossup between Clinton and Trump but I think Clinton wins if the economy here at home does not tank.

[Virginiá]

I'll take a crack at answering this.

1. Trump has identified issues that people are very concerned about, namely jobs and national security; if he can stay on message (granted, a very big "if"), Trump will do well on these issues
2. As Brexit demonstrates, there is legitimate concern over relinquishing a nation's sovereignty in the name of some globalized ideal, and I think that concern is being felt by citizens of the United States as well as those of the UK
3. Hillary Clinton represents the epitome of establishment politics, and this cycle there is a definite anti-establishment sentiment being expressed by the electorate, especially within the block of younger voters
4. Despite her having held the offices of Senator from New York and Secretary of State, supporters of Hillary Clinton still can't point to any firm legislative or foreign policy accomplishments of hers
5. There is still the little matter of the FBI investigation into Mrs. Clinton's use of a private email serve, which I do not believe we have heard the last of

While I agree with Virginia's five points, I do not believe they remove the legitimacy of these five counter-points, the consequence of which supports TN volunteer's statement that this election can be considered a tossup, at least for right now.

#1 - #2 are legitimate concerns, but they currently resonate with a voting bloc that is already heavily Republican. He may win over yet more voters from the working class white voters bloc, but he'll definitely lose support among college educated whites. So while I don't doubt these points, I think Trump's pull on them exists within a part of the electorate that Republicans have already done well with, and hasn't been enough to win national elections.

#3 is a fair point, and obviously Democrats have this issue too, but it wasn't enough to topple Clinton in the primaries. The Democratic base appears to be coming back to her slowly but surely.

#4 I don't think that really matters. Obama didn't have much, either. I'm sure this could be argued by Trump, but it doesn't negate Trump's own negative attributes. Overall I doubt this issue will mean much. This election seems to be shaping up to be a referendum on Trump, and it's his own fault for steering it that way.

#5 True. Personally I don't think it will amount to anything in the end, but it could, I guess, so that is a risk. However, right now, unless they want to charge her, it won't have any more impact than it already has

I don't agree with Virginia's point No. one. It would be valid for all other Republicans, but not for Trump, who actually has a structural advantage in the EC and is more likely to win a close election than to lose it.

Based on what? What exactly is his advantage? Because it has been widely accepted that Democrats have an EC advantage among all the traditional "blue wall" states and virtually all of the swing states having some sort of pro-Democratic trend going on (CO, VA, NV and NC for instance). Even if you give PA a notable R trend, it still doesn't negate Democrat's EC advantage.

[SillyAmerican]

I'll take a crack at answering this.

1. Trump has identified issues that people are very concerned about, namely jobs and national security; if he can stay on message (granted, a very big "if"), Trump will do well on these issues
2. As Brexit demonstrates, there is legitimate concern over relinquishing a nation's sovereignty in the name of some globalized ideal, and I think that concern is being felt by citizens of the United States as well as those of the UK
3. Hillary Clinton represents the epitome of establishment politics, and this cycle there is a definite anti-establishment sentiment being expressed by the electorate, especially within the block of younger voters
4. Despite her having held the offices of Senator from New York and Secretary of State, supporters of Hillary Clinton still can't point to any firm legislative or foreign policy accomplishments of hers
5. There is still the little matter of the FBI investigation into Mrs. Clinton's use of a private email serve, which I do not believe we have heard the last of

While I agree with Virginia's five points, I do not believe they remove the legitimacy of these five counter-points, the consequence of which supports TN volunteer's statement that this election can be considered a tossup, at least for right now.

#1 - #2 are legitimate concerns, but they currently resonate with a voting bloc that is already heavily Republican. He may win over yet more voters from the working class white voters bloc, but he'll definitely lose support among college educated whites. So while I don't doubt these points, I think Trump's pull on them exists within a part of the electorate that Republicans have already done well with, and hasn't been enough to win national elections.

#3 is a fair point, and obviously Democrats have this issue too, but it wasn't enough to topple Clinton in the primaries. The Democratic base appears to be coming back to her slowly but surely.

#4 I don't think that really matters. Obama didn't have much, either. I'm sure this could be argued by Trump, but it doesn't negate Trump's own negative attributes. Overall I doubt this issue will mean much. This election seems to be shaping up to be a referendum on Trump, and it's his own fault for steering it that way.

#5 True. Personally I don't think it will amount to anything in the end, but it could, I guess, so that is a risk. However, right now, unless they want to charge her, it won't have any more impact than it already has

This election may well come down to which candidate is most effective in presenting their narrative -- whether it's Hillary Clinton framing this as a referendum on Trump, or Donald Trump framing this election as a referendum on establishment politics. Granted, both narratives have certain legitimate aspects; as a result, I believe the next few months will prove to be very interesting.

[Doimper]

I love how you say 'anti-immigrant' like you aren't even trying to hide it anymore.

I also find it hilarious how Trump is winning this poll. Classic Old Atlas overreaction.

What else would you like me to call it? It's anti-immigrant. The British working class is fed up with immigration control being ceded to Brussels. They voted their pocketbook. I can't blame them.

If Americans were smart, they'd realize that for every two illegal immigrants here, there's one fewer American with a job. My guess is that if Trump can harness that, he'll win the election.

If Americans were smart, they'd realize that immigrants create demand and thus jobs.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Polls in June mean nothing. Just wait until the GOP smear machine rallies behind their racist leader and starts to blame everything on Hispanics and blacks.

LOL!