Who wins now?

[Virginiá]

This election is a Tossup, regardless of Brexit or current polls.

How has it ever been a tossup?

1. Structural Democratic advantage in the EC
2. Clinton's massive money + infrastructure advantage over Trump
3. Polls showing Hillary leading in virtually all the polls, many times by landslide margins. On RCP, Trump has only led or tied in 11 or 12 polls out of too many to count since he announced
4. Fundamentals are not all that favorable to Trump right now
5. Demographics of the electorate were already unfavorable to Republicans before the election even started

And no this isn't a snide comment, I am genuinely curious why you believe this is currently a tossup.

[Virginiá]

I'll take a crack at answering this.

1. Trump has identified issues that people are very concerned about, namely jobs and national security; if he can stay on message (granted, a very big "if"), Trump will do well on these issues
2. As Brexit demonstrates, there is legitimate concern over relinquishing a nation's sovereignty in the name of some globalized ideal, and I think that concern is being felt by citizens of the United States as well as those of the UK
3. Hillary Clinton represents the epitome of establishment politics, and this cycle there is a definite anti-establishment sentiment being expressed by the electorate, especially within the block of younger voters
4. Despite her having held the offices of Senator from New York and Secretary of State, supporters of Hillary Clinton still can't point to any firm legislative or foreign policy accomplishments of hers
5. There is still the little matter of the FBI investigation into Mrs. Clinton's use of a private email serve, which I do not believe we have heard the last of

While I agree with Virginia's five points, I do not believe they remove the legitimacy of these five counter-points, the consequence of which supports TN volunteer's statement that this election can be considered a tossup, at least for right now.

#1 - #2 are legitimate concerns, but they currently resonate with a voting bloc that is already heavily Republican. He may win over yet more voters from the working class white voters bloc, but he'll definitely lose support among college educated whites. So while I don't doubt these points, I think Trump's pull on them exists within a part of the electorate that Republicans have already done well with, and hasn't been enough to win national elections.

#3 is a fair point, and obviously Democrats have this issue too, but it wasn't enough to topple Clinton in the primaries. The Democratic base appears to be coming back to her slowly but surely.

#4 I don't think that really matters. Obama didn't have much, either. I'm sure this could be argued by Trump, but it doesn't negate Trump's own negative attributes. Overall I doubt this issue will mean much. This election seems to be shaping up to be a referendum on Trump, and it's his own fault for steering it that way.

#5 True. Personally I don't think it will amount to anything in the end, but it could, I guess, so that is a risk. However, right now, unless they want to charge her, it won't have any more impact than it already has

I don't agree with Virginia's point No. one. It would be valid for all other Republicans, but not for Trump, who actually has a structural advantage in the EC and is more likely to win a close election than to lose it.

Based on what? What exactly is his advantage? Because it has been widely accepted that Democrats have an EC advantage among all the traditional "blue wall" states and virtually all of the swing states having some sort of pro-Democratic trend going on (CO, VA, NV and NC for instance). Even if you give PA a notable R trend, it still doesn't negate Democrat's EC advantage.