Scottish independence referendum 2017?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Obviously - I can't vote. I thought the last ref was devoid of a plan and had no cause other than emotion and sentiment. BUT this time there would be a legitimate and tangible justification...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Obviously - I can't vote. I thought the last ref was devoid of a plan and had no cause other than emotion and sentiment. BUT this time there would be a legitimate and tangible justification...

[Beezer]

Sturgeon isn't in an enviable position. The final resolution of Brexit negotiations will likely provide the UK with a halfway decent deal. By that point the independence option will be a border with rUK, the euro, and oil at a signficantly lower price than where it was back in 2014 (not the kind of devo max choice Salmond was touting back then). My guess is she'll put off another referendum in the hope that Britain will run into some sort of major recession in the near future than can be blamed on the Brexit.

[joevsimp]

So I'm not in Scotland, but last time I said that if I was voting, the biggest thing holding me back from voting Yes would've been worries about it destabilising the situation in Ireland.  now it looks like that mess is getting stirred up anyway, might as well get on with it.  

I know it seems opportunistic, but Sturgeon is right to want Independence for Scotland to be on the agenda for Brexit negotiations  

[Phony Moderate]

Quite likely that the SNP has regained a lot of lost support in the North over the past 36 hours?

[Hnv1]

Will it not make sense to have a referendum once Brexit negotiations are complete?

[ag]

Sturgeon isn't in an enviable position. The final resolution of Brexit negotiations will likely provide the UK with a halfway decent deal. By that point the independence option will be a border with rUK, the euro, and oil at a signficantly lower price than where it was back in 2014 (not the kind of devo max choice Salmond was touting back then). My guess is she'll put off another referendum in the hope that Britain will run into some sort of major recession in the near future than can be blamed on the Brexit.

Pretty much any decent deal England may get out of this that I can see will involve joining Schengen and retaining free labor mobility (or else, the deal will not be decent).  And there will be a recession that will be blaimed on Brexit with a near certainty. So, I do not think her position is that bad

[DavidB.]

This time I hope they leave. The childish selfishness of "if you make one single decision we don't like, we will leave!!1!1!!1!" is disgusting. England can do without them.

[ag]

Will it not make sense to have a referendum once Brexit negotiations are complete?

Not if the English insist on delaying the negotiations. I could see Scots agreeing on the referendum in late June 2018 in exchange for an iron-clad guarantee that the English are out of the EU by then. Of course, the Scots would use this period to negotiate their entrance in advance. And, especially if after the new election they are the swing vote in Westminster, they could further use it to weaken the British negotiating position meanwhile.

[Cranberry]

This time I hope they leave. The childish selfishness of "if you make one single decision we don't like, we will leave!!1!1!!1!" is disgusting. England can do without them.

Even if you have that position, you have to admit that this "one single decision we don't like" is pretty much the biggest decision the English could have made.

[Clyde1998]

The childish selfishness of "if you make one single decision we don't like, we will leave!!1!1!!1!" is disgusting.

I can see you don't follow UK politics closely. Otherwise you would know that this is not the first time that a decision has been made that Scotland disagrees with, not even close to it.

[jeron]

The childish selfishness of "if you make one single decision we don't like, we will leave!!1!1!!1!" is disgusting.

I can see you don't follow UK politics closely. Otherwise you would know that this is not the first time that a decision has been made that Scotland disagrees with, not even close to it.

This, and if the English people have the right to decide to leave the EU, I don't see why the Scottish (and Northern Irish) people shouldn't have the right to leave the UK. I really don't see why this would be disgusting

[Cassius]

I would make one point - obviously, I'm no expert on the Scottish economy and someone else may be able to correct me on this - if Scotland should choose to leave the UK, assuming we've left the EU, then they'll be leaving the economic area with which they do nearly two thirds of their trade (I think this is the correct figure as of about 2014) for an economic area with which they do roughly 15% (indeed, it's ironic that one of the most heavily Remain areas of the UK actually does less trade with the EU than the country as a whole). Undoubtedly, again, assuming we actually do leave the EU, the Scots will have to work out some trade deal with us.

Now, I'm not saying 'ermagerd Scotland can't leave UK cos teh trade'; undoubtedly, there are a lot of other issues in play (for example, the funding Scotland receives from the EU), but it would be rather ironic if, in order to remain a member of one trading bloc, Scotland walked out of by far its  export market.

[DavidB.]

This, and if the English people have the right to decide to leave the EU, I don't see why the Scottish (and Northern Irish) people shouldn't have the right to leave the UK. I really don't see why this would be disgusting

Oh, don't misunderstand me, I'm totally supportive of the Scottish right to secede and I do not find that to be disgusting.

[parochial boy]

I would make one point - obviously, I'm no expert on the Scottish economy and someone else may be able to correct me on this - if Scotland should choose to leave the UK, assuming we've left the EU, then they'll be leaving the economic area with which they do nearly two thirds of their trade (I think this is the correct figure as of about 2014) for an economic area with which they do roughly 15% (indeed, it's ironic that one of the most heavily Remain areas of the UK actually does less trade with the EU than the country as a whole). Undoubtedly, again, assuming we actually do leave the EU, the Scots will have to work out some trade deal with us.

Now, I'm not saying 'ermagerd Scotland can't leave UK cos teh trade'; undoubtedly, there are a lot of other issues in play (for example, the funding Scotland receives from the EU), but it would be rather ironic if, in order to remain a member of one trading bloc, Scotland walked out of by far its  export market.

Ah, but Scotland has this cake you see, it's a sort of shortbread type thing, that you can buy at airports, that is very popular in England.

And the English are still going to want to buy that cake.

[ag]

I would make one point - obviously, I'm no expert on the Scottish economy and someone else may be able to correct me on this - if Scotland should choose to leave the UK, assuming we've left the EU, then they'll be leaving the economic area with which they do nearly two thirds of their trade (I think this is the correct figure as of about 2014) for an economic area with which they do roughly 15% (indeed, it's ironic that one of the most heavily Remain areas of the UK actually does less trade with the EU than the country as a whole). Undoubtedly, again, assuming we actually do leave the EU, the Scots will have to work out some trade deal with us.

Now, I'm not saying 'ermagerd Scotland can't leave UK cos teh trade'; undoubtedly, there are a lot of other issues in play (for example, the funding Scotland receives from the EU), but it would be rather ironic if, in order to remain a member of one trading bloc, Scotland walked out of by far its  export market.

Ah, but Scotland has this cake you see, it's a sort of shortbread type thing, that you can buy at airports, that is very popular in England.

And the English are still going to want to buy that cake.

The English are still going to trade with Europe - including Scotland. The main difference will be that the English will no longer have an input in formulating European policies, and would have to accept them wholesale, while the Scots will be on the inside, participating in setting the agenda. That is all.

[Cassius]

I would make one point - obviously, I'm no expert on the Scottish economy and someone else may be able to correct me on this - if Scotland should choose to leave the UK, assuming we've left the EU, then they'll be leaving the economic area with which they do nearly two thirds of their trade (I think this is the correct figure as of about 2014) for an economic area with which they do roughly 15% (indeed, it's ironic that one of the most heavily Remain areas of the UK actually does less trade with the EU than the country as a whole). Undoubtedly, again, assuming we actually do leave the EU, the Scots will have to work out some trade deal with us.

Now, I'm not saying 'ermagerd Scotland can't leave UK cos teh trade'; undoubtedly, there are a lot of other issues in play (for example, the funding Scotland receives from the EU), but it would be rather ironic if, in order to remain a member of one trading bloc, Scotland walked out of by far its  export market.

Ah, but Scotland has this cake you see, it's a sort of shortbread type thing, that you can buy at airports, that is very popular in England.

And the English are still going to want to buy that cake.

The English are still going to trade with Europe - including Scotland. The main difference will be that the English will no longer have an input in formulating European policies, and would have to accept them wholesale, while the Scots will be on the inside, participating in setting the agenda. That is all.

Well, they'll get to participate, but as one of 28 states, and a small one at that (they'll have a maximum of around 13 MEP's, which is more than they have now but not a lot more). I doubt they'll be able to exercise the same level of influence that we have (and note that our influence, such as it was, was directed almost entirely towards stymying attempts to integrate the Union, rather than applying an agenda across it).

[ag]

I would make one point - obviously, I'm no expert on the Scottish economy and someone else may be able to correct me on this - if Scotland should choose to leave the UK, assuming we've left the EU, then they'll be leaving the economic area with which they do nearly two thirds of their trade (I think this is the correct figure as of about 2014) for an economic area with which they do roughly 15% (indeed, it's ironic that one of the most heavily Remain areas of the UK actually does less trade with the EU than the country as a whole). Undoubtedly, again, assuming we actually do leave the EU, the Scots will have to work out some trade deal with us.

Now, I'm not saying 'ermagerd Scotland can't leave UK cos teh trade'; undoubtedly, there are a lot of other issues in play (for example, the funding Scotland receives from the EU), but it would be rather ironic if, in order to remain a member of one trading bloc, Scotland walked out of by far its  export market.

Ah, but Scotland has this cake you see, it's a sort of shortbread type thing, that you can buy at airports, that is very popular in England.

And the English are still going to want to buy that cake.

The English are still going to trade with Europe - including Scotland. The main difference will be that the English will no longer have an input in formulating European policies, and would have to accept them wholesale, while the Scots will be on the inside, participating in setting the agenda. That is all.

Well, they'll get to participate, but as one of 28 states, and a small one at that (they'll have a maximum of around 13 MEP's, which is more than they have now but not a lot more). I doubt they'll be able to exercise the same level of influence that we have (and note that our influence, such as it was, was directed almost entirely towards stymying attempts to integrate the Union, rather than applying an agenda across it).

Well, true, they will have less influence than what you had - but they will have infinitely more influence than what you have now and will have in the future. And they will apply that influence towards making you yield on things that matter for them.

So, I am looking forward to seeing signs on Scottish roads saying things like: "built with the support of the EU, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and the United Kingdom of Small Britain and Belfast Suburbus" And, yep, you will pay for this - voluntarily, and singing:)

[Clyde1998]

Today's Daily Record surprised me a bit, tbh:

[Blair]

Scotland could get all the migrating banks tbh

[Cassius]

Scotland could get all the migrating banks tbh

Doubt it, if citygeddon (which may or may not happen, only a couple of banks have announced they'll move their operations) takes place they're much more likely to head to Dublin or Frankfurt, which are already far better established as financial centres and have unquestioned EU status.

I would make one point - obviously, I'm no expert on the Scottish economy and someone else may be able to correct me on this - if Scotland should choose to leave the UK, assuming we've left the EU, then they'll be leaving the economic area with which they do nearly two thirds of their trade (I think this is the correct figure as of about 2014) for an economic area with which they do roughly 15% (indeed, it's ironic that one of the most heavily Remain areas of the UK actually does less trade with the EU than the country as a whole). Undoubtedly, again, assuming we actually do leave the EU, the Scots will have to work out some trade deal with us.

Now, I'm not saying 'ermagerd Scotland can't leave UK cos teh trade'; undoubtedly, there are a lot of other issues in play (for example, the funding Scotland receives from the EU), but it would be rather ironic if, in order to remain a member of one trading bloc, Scotland walked out of by far its  export market.

Ah, but Scotland has this cake you see, it's a sort of shortbread type thing, that you can buy at airports, that is very popular in England.

And the English are still going to want to buy that cake.

The English are still going to trade with Europe - including Scotland. The main difference will be that the English will no longer have an input in formulating European policies, and would have to accept them wholesale, while the Scots will be on the inside, participating in setting the agenda. That is all.

Well, they'll get to participate, but as one of 28 states, and a small one at that (they'll have a maximum of around 13 MEP's, which is more than they have now but not a lot more). I doubt they'll be able to exercise the same level of influence that we have (and note that our influence, such as it was, was directed almost entirely towards stymying attempts to integrate the Union, rather than applying an agenda across it).

Well, true, they will have less influence than what you had - but they will have infinitely more influence than what you have now and will have in the future. And they will apply that influence towards making you yield on things that matter for them.

So, I am looking forward to seeing signs on Scottish roads saying things like: "built with the support of the EU, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and the United Kingdom of Small Britain and Belfast Suburbus" And, yep, you will pay for this - voluntarily, and singing:)

Well, maybe, we'll have to see . On the other hand, the Scots may be in the EU, but they'll be so small as to be practically invisible - we've already seen how countries of a similar size (Ireland and Greece) fair in their attempts to make EU institutions see their way.

[Dereich]

Scotland could get all the migrating banks tbh

Doubt it, if citygeddon (which may or may not happen, only a couple of banks have announced they'll move their operations) takes place they're much more likely to head to Dublin or Frankfurt, which are already far better established as financial centres and have unquestioned EU status.

Give it time; its only been one business day and I doubt all the banks have contingency plans (staff, locations in other countries etc.) ready to go yet.

[parochial boy]

[ag]

Good!

[Clyde1998]

Amazing!

To confirm figures:

(Pollster To Be Confirmed)/Sunday Post:
Yes - 59%
No - 32%
DK - 9%

Excluding Don't Knows
Yes - 65%
No - 35%

Sample - 1,700