Scottish independence referendum 2017?
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Author Topic: Scottish independence referendum 2017?  (Read 21453 times)
Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #50 on: June 25, 2016, 05:53:47 PM »

Scexit just became the Status Quo move, to a large extent. That's what the change is.

Northern Ireland probably won't happen, just because there's no way that one doesn't end bloody.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #51 on: June 25, 2016, 05:58:20 PM »

We clearly need another grinder poll over Sexit.
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ag
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« Reply #52 on: June 25, 2016, 08:39:25 PM »

just because there's no way that one doesn't end bloody.

When has that stopped things from happening?
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jaichind
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« Reply #53 on: June 25, 2016, 09:03:19 PM »

Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 52% (+5)
No: 48% (-5)
(via Panelbase / 24 - 25 Jun)
Chgs. from 28 Apr.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #54 on: June 25, 2016, 10:50:39 PM »

This time I hope they leave. The childish selfishness of "if you make one single decision we don't like, we will leave!!1!1!!1!" is disgusting. England can do without them.

So, UK was childish? They acted exactly the same with EU.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #55 on: June 26, 2016, 02:58:38 AM »

The question I have is what if Scotland decides to go ahead with another referendum in the near future and Westminster refuses to recognize it (particularly if it's something like a mirror image of the Quebec sovereignty vote in 1995)? From what I've read, there's a lot of debate on what would have happened had Quebec voted Oui in 1995 and tried to unilaterally declare independence. Washington would have been very reluctant to go against Ottawa, while Paris on the other hand was ready to accept the result in full. Even on an issue like this, so long as there is at least relatively sane leadership on both sides (i.e. not Donald Trump and not Boris Johnson), I cannot ever imagine any daylight between Washington and London. I realize that's only one international relationship (albeit probably the most important), but in the event Westminster refuses to recognize a possible Yes vote in another Scottish referendum, it seems like a pretty nasty situation to deal with for many countries.

The other question has to do with how another vote would be possible. With the SNP short of a majority in the Scottish Parliament, who do they rely on to force a vote? Is it the Scottish Greens that give them the votes to send it the people?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #56 on: June 26, 2016, 04:53:50 AM »

Scexit just became the Status Quo move, to a large extent. That's what the change is.

Northern Ireland probably won't happen, just because there's no way that one doesn't end bloody.

More precisely, Northern Ireland requires cross-community consensus.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #57 on: June 26, 2016, 05:38:27 AM »


The other question has to do with how another vote would be possible. With the SNP short of a majority in the Scottish Parliament, who do they rely on to force a vote? Is it the Scottish Greens that give them the votes to send it the people?

Quite likely, they were part of the Yes campaign last time, and they are generally less Eurosceptic than the E+W Greens

the Lib Dems would also probably vote for a referendum, but I don't know if they'd support independence or not (I suspect that they don't either)
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Beezer
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« Reply #58 on: June 26, 2016, 05:48:36 AM »

What's the point in polling after such an emotional event? Eventually everything will settle down and any sort of 2nd referendum will be far closer than people might think.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #59 on: June 26, 2016, 06:45:00 AM »

What's the point in polling after such an emotional event? Eventually everything will settle down and any sort of 2nd referendum will be far closer than people might think.

Actually, i think a recession and another, more right-wing, eurosceptic Tory government would almost certainly increase the prospect of independence. Remember a small part of the Scottish socialist and radical elements are in favour of Brexit in order to strengthen the Scottish parliament (that was the main OUT campaign's argument). But I can only see that happening in a federal UK, which the Tory Right won't allow.

 
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #60 on: June 26, 2016, 01:50:23 PM »

Looks like Brussels isn't that enamoured with the SNP:

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3660320/NON-EU-slaps-Sturgeon-SNP-leader-dramatically-announces-wants-immediate-discussions-STAY-EU-humiliated-Brussels-says-No-s-not-works.html
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #61 on: June 26, 2016, 02:25:14 PM »

Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 52% (+5)
No: 48% (-5)
(via Panelbase / 24 - 25 Jun)
Chgs. from 28 Apr.

Surprisingly tight under the circs.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #62 on: June 26, 2016, 02:59:57 PM »


I can understand them being butt hurt with the UK in general but I'm surprised they would be cold towards the SNP and Scotland considering how pro-European they've been.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #63 on: June 26, 2016, 03:45:08 PM »

Its interesting to see people I know who were ardent unionists in the last referendum now start to reconsider their opinion; its anecdotal but most of my pals who were no supporters seem to be now a little supportive of independence; including my Mum who's not exactly a traditional independence supporter.  People misunderstood how much small-c conservatism was a factor rather than principled opposition to independence, and now that the status quo doesn't really exist anymore that's causing lots of people to think again

The other question has to do with how another vote would be possible. With the SNP short of a majority in the Scottish Parliament, who do they rely on to force a vote? Is it the Scottish Greens that give them the votes to send it the people?

They're still a few seats short of a majority even with the Greens (there was a bit of a story on the Greens's policy on a second referendum before the May election; I think this chucks that out of the window), but I assume that the opposition parties wouldn't stand in the way if there was public demand for it which currently there is.  Besides I'm pretty sure the Lib Dems and Labour are both reconsidering their opposition to a second referendum at this point; and there might be more supporters of independence in both parties now.

The news that Scotland would have to apply for membership isn't exactly that shocking, the big barrier last time was Spain; and I'd argue that the conditions have changed enough to make everyone reconsider things. 
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parochial boy
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« Reply #64 on: June 26, 2016, 05:06:28 PM »


Wouldn't it be a bigger "F*** the British" to let Scotland in relatively easily and in doing so precipitate the break up of the UK?
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« Reply #65 on: June 26, 2016, 05:09:20 PM »

I imagine there will be a lot more 'official' support this time. As IAC says, it's not difficult to imagine Labour and the Lib Dems flipping to neutral or anti-union. Sane with the trade unions, business groups, universities and the major newspapers.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #66 on: June 26, 2016, 06:43:56 PM »

I imagine there will be a lot more 'official' support this time. As IAC says, it's not difficult to imagine Labour and the Lib Dems flipping to neutral or anti-union. Sane with the trade unions, business groups, universities and the major newspapers.

Yeah, but does that actually matter though?
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« Reply #67 on: June 26, 2016, 06:59:41 PM »

No aside from people who like trivia like me.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #68 on: June 27, 2016, 03:23:06 AM »

I imagine there will be a lot more 'official' support this time. As IAC says, it's not difficult to imagine Labour and the Lib Dems flipping to neutral or anti-union. Sane with the trade unions, business groups, universities and the major newspapers.

Yeah, but does that actually matter though?

Of course it does. Plenty of people vote with their institution and not with their head.
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bore
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« Reply #69 on: June 27, 2016, 06:02:57 AM »


This doesn't necessarily mean much, because no one expects Scotland to get all or even most of the UK's many opt outs and they never have. The question is more whether the EU would accept Scotland at all.
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afleitch
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« Reply #70 on: June 27, 2016, 11:38:29 AM »


This doesn't necessarily mean much, because no one expects Scotland to get all or even most of the UK's many opt outs and they never have. The question is more whether the EU would accept Scotland at all.

This doesn't necessarily mean much as it's from the Daily Mail Cheesy
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #71 on: June 27, 2016, 12:39:29 PM »

One issue is that Sturgeon truly believes that Scotland as an EU member state could hold on to the pound, while the EU has made it clear that all new member states are obligated to adopt the euro after a transitional period. Brussels has no real incentive to make an exception in the case of Scotland.
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ag
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« Reply #72 on: June 27, 2016, 12:46:39 PM »

One issue is that Sturgeon truly believes that Scotland as an EU member state could hold on to the pound, while the EU has made it clear that all new member states are obligated to adopt the euro after a transitional period. Brussels has no real incentive to make an exception in the case of Scotland.

I do not think they will care much. Scottish pound will not be a major currency either way - they will switch, like the Irish did.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #73 on: June 27, 2016, 01:21:09 PM »

Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 52% (+5)
No: 48% (-5)
(via Panelbase / 24 - 25 Jun)
Chgs. from 28 Apr.
Surprisingly tight under the circs.
Panelbase have been showing some of the lowest levels of support for independence since the previous referendum, compared to other pollsters - so it's a very positive for independence supporters.

No-one seemed to have posted this poll though:

Survation/Daily Record (25 Jun)Sad
Yes - 48% (+4 on 15-20 Apr)
No - 41% (-6)
DK - 9% (NC)

Yes - 54% (+6)
No - 46% (-6)
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joevsimp
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« Reply #74 on: June 27, 2016, 02:01:47 PM »

One issue is that Sturgeon truly believes that Scotland as an EU member state could hold on to the pound, while the EU has made it clear that all new member states are obligated to adopt the euro after a transitional period. Brussels has no real incentive to make an exception in the case of Scotland.

not strictly true, Denmark (and the exUK) have official opt outs, the Swedes have an official policy of intentionally failing to meet the criteria for joining and the Poles and others are also dragging their feet

to me the obvious route after independence is to keep the GBP for a year while setting up a mint and a central bank (or working out how scotland's note-issuing commercial banks operate from now) then bring in a separate Scottish pound pegged to GBP for a while before letting it float off, stability is maintained through the transition and the issue of adopting the Euro is kicked safely into the long grass for long enough to keep everyone happy
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