Scottish independence referendum 2017?

[Simfan34]

In related news, Sinn Fein called for a Border Poll (referendum on Irish reunification) in Northern Ireland yesterday, while Plaid Cymru called for a Welsh Independence vote if Scotland leaves the UK. Brexit's going well - and it technically hasn't begun yet...

Of course, you nincompoop, Wales voted Leave, so they have no grounds whatsoever.

[Phony Moderate]

A Welsh independence referendum would make the 1979 devolution referendum look like Florida 2000.

[Tintrlvr]

In related news, Sinn Fein called for a Border Poll (referendum on Irish reunification) in Northern Ireland yesterday, while Plaid Cymru called for a Welsh Independence vote if Scotland leaves the UK. Brexit's going well - and it technically hasn't begun yet...

Of course, you nincompoop, Wales voted Leave, so they have no grounds whatsoever.

I think it would be reasonable argument that, if Scotland leaves, the Union has changed sufficiently that Wales would be justified in requesting a referendum on independence also, Brexit or no Brexit (would have been true in 2014 also).

It would fail, though.

[jaichind]

Strong indications that the answer from the May government will be 'no'.

I thought I read somewhere that May was OK with a referendum as long as it takes places after Brexit.  I must have been wrong about that.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov (9-14 Mar) - Yes 37%; No 48%
Survation (8-13 Mar) - Yes 41%; No 48%

Neither poll outside those pollsters standard range and most of each poll was conducted before the announcement from Sturgeon about requesting a Section 30 order to hold a referendum. Additionally, YouGov still don't included sixteen and seventeen year-olds in their polling - despite being eligible voters.

Average of most recent poll from each pollster (YouGov, Survation, Ipsos Mori, BMG, Panelbase)
Yes - 42.4%
No - 47.4%

[Clyde1998]

The annual Scottish Social Attitudes survey results on independence was released today. The survey has been conducted every year, excluding 2008, since the Scottish Parliament was formed.

The poll uses a three option question - as to whether respondents would prefer independence, devolution within the UK or no Scottish Parliament within the UK. This year 46% said independence, 42% said devolution and 8% said no Parliament.

This represents a doubling in independence support since 2012 and the highest figure ever in this survey. It's also the first time that the independence option has been the highest single option.

The survey suggests that the biggest increase in independence support has come from younger voters:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Beezer]

However, the Scottish don't appear all that keen on the EU either. So maybe Scotland will leave the UK only to then seek EFTA membership... 😑

[Clyde1998]

However, the Scottish don't appear all that keen on the EU either. So maybe Scotland will leave the UK only to then seek EFTA membership... 😑

What happened it 2005 to cause a 20% drop in support for increasing the EU's powers? European Constitution?

[Clyde1998]

Just a quick note as to procedures: Scottish Government cannot actually call a referendum. It's up to the May Government to decide if it wants one or not. Either way, of course, welcome to yet another dumpster fire.

And they appear to have decided there won't be one (at least before the UK leaves the EU).

Independence parties still have other options:

• Hold a 'consultative' referendum that would be non-binding (the EU referendum was non-binding after all). This is, apparently, within the powers of the Scottish Parliament - to hold a consultative referendum on any issue.
• Dissolve the Scottish Parliament and hold election campaign as proxy referendum.
• Get another body to oversee a referendum, such as the European Union (a la the Montenegro referendum in 2006). This is the most unlikely option though.

Conservatives are suggesting that if a referendum is hold on the Scottish Government's timetable, Scots wouldn't know what the EU deal would look like. If the UK Government don't think that they'll know what the Brexit deal is going to look like in Autumn 2018/Spring 2019, when the two year negotiation period in Article 50 would expire in March 2019 - then they obviously believe there won't be a deal between the UK and the EU, IMO.

[Tintrlvr]

Just a quick note as to procedures: Scottish Government cannot actually call a referendum. It's up to the May Government to decide if it wants one or not. Either way, of course, welcome to yet another dumpster fire.

And they appear to have decided there won't be one (at least before the UK leaves the EU).

Independence parties still have other options:

• Hold a 'consultative' referendum that would be non-binding (the EU referendum was non-binding after all). This is, apparently, within the powers of the Scottish Parliament - to hold a consultative referendum on any issue.
• Dissolve the Scottish Parliament and hold election campaign as proxy referendum.
• Get another body to oversee a referendum, such as the European Union (a la the Montenegro referendum in 2006). This is the most unlikely option though.

Conservatives are suggesting that if a referendum is hold on the Scottish Government's timetable, Scots wouldn't know what the EU deal would look like. If the UK Government don't think that they'll know what the Brexit deal is going to look like in Autumn 2018/Spring 2019, when the two year negotiation period in Article 50 would expire in March 2019 - then they obviously believe there won't be a deal between the UK and the EU, IMO.

I think option #2 is the best option for independence - hard to see SNP+Green not getting a majority at a snap election that is a proxy referendum on independence given Labour's ongoing weakness. And then they can clearly say they have a mandate for a unilateral declaration of independence (unlike Catalonia, the lack of partisan fragmentation within the pro-independence coalition in Scotland makes this a lot easier - assuming the Greens are on board with a unilateral declaration but maybe even if they are not as the SNP is probably most likely to get a majority on its own).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose Sturgeon could then declare herself to be Tsar of all the Russia's as well. The constitutional situation is what it is.

[Lord Halifax]

I suppose Sturgeon could then declare herself to be Tsar of all the Russia's as well. The constitutional situation is what it is.

Sure, but would it matter? Hard to see Westminster use military force against Scotland if they issued an UDI.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can't respond to that without being really, really rude and I don't particularly want to be so...

[ObserverIE]

May edging towards doing The Full Rajoy.

[MaxQue]

Ah, May wants to lock hp everyone in her sinking Brexit ship.

[Clyde1998]

Not hard to see Westminster use military force against Scotland if they issued an UDI.

FTFY

[Zinneke]

May edging towards doing The Full Rajoy.

Rajoy says the referendum has to be country-wide.

I think the British Tories are much much less passionate about unionism than the Spanish Populares, partly because the Populares know that the Catalan issue helps them stay relevant whereas the Tories have no stake in Scotland.

However, I think May is one of the few who is passionate about the Union, and Sturgeon is exploiting that to bang the nationalist war drum. Ganesh of the FT was on to something when he said this was a move designed to strengthen the SNP's support after a rough time.

[Lord Halifax]

Not hard to see Westminster use military force against Scotland if they issued an UDI.

FTFY

Generally modern Western European democracies have been very reluctant to use military force against their own citizens (unless involved in terrorism). In a scenario where a majority of Scots had voted for independence in a consultative referendum it would also be met with widespread international condemnation. The Swedes declined to use military force against Norway when it unilaterally seceded as far back as 1905, and I have a hard time seeing England do it against Scotland in this day and age (or Spain against Catalonia for that matter).

[Clyde1998]

Not hard to see Westminster use military force against Scotland if they issued an UDI.

FTFY

Generally modern Western European democracies have been very reluctant to use military force against their own citizens (unless involved in terrorism). In a scenario where a majority of Scots had voted for independence in a consultative referendum it would also be met with widespread international condemnation. The Swedes declined to use military force against Norway when it unilaterally seceded as far back as 1905, and I have a hard time seeing England do it against Scotland in this day and age (or Spain against Catalonia for that matter).

I can see Westminster deciding to use some sort of military force in Scotland, although I think that a full scale civil war is highly unlikely.
BTW, the SNP are holding their conference at the moment.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can we return to this planet now?

[IceAgeComing]

Not hard to see Westminster use military force against Scotland if they issued an UDI.

FTFY

Generally modern Western European democracies have been very reluctant to use military force against their own citizens (unless involved in terrorism). In a scenario where a majority of Scots had voted for independence in a consultative referendum it would also be met with widespread international condemnation. The Swedes declined to use military force against Norway when it unilaterally seceded as far back as 1905, and I have a hard time seeing England do it against Scotland in this day and age (or Spain against Catalonia for that matter).

...but no voters wouldn't bother to vote in that case?  There's be no mandate for independence on an unofficial referendum that was 90% yes on a 50% turnout - and I say that as someone who'd campaign for it if and when a second referendum happens...

[Lord Halifax]

Not hard to see Westminster use military force against Scotland if they issued an UDI.

FTFY

Generally modern Western European democracies have been very reluctant to use military force against their own citizens (unless involved in terrorism). In a scenario where a majority of Scots had voted for independence in a consultative referendum it would also be met with widespread international condemnation. The Swedes declined to use military force against Norway when it unilaterally seceded as far back as 1905, and I have a hard time seeing England do it against Scotland in this day and age (or Spain against Catalonia for that matter).

...but no voters wouldn't bother to vote in that case?  There's be no mandate for independence on an unofficial referendum that was 90% yes on a 50% turnout - and I say that as someone who'd campaign for it if and when a second referendum happens...

Fair point, but Salmond clearly toyed with the idea after 2014. What is and isn't a mandate will also be a matter of interpretation in such a situation.

Where did all the Wales stuff go btw? Never got around to reading it. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, it would not be a matter of interpretation. The situation in that respect is very clear.

[IceAgeComing]

The constitutional situation is clear: a mandate for independence would be a 50%+1 vote in a referendum approved by both the Scottish Parliament and Westminster Parliament.  While theoretically other limits could be put on the vote it's unlikely IMO; the one other time they did that in 1979 didn't end well.

[Good Habit]

I can't see a referendum without the consent of Westminster bringing anything positive. If a UDI would be issued after a 90 % turnout referendum would give a 98 % yes to independece, London might back down - but with anything less overwhelming, it's likely that the government would "have to protect it's loyal citizens against an illegal act", and so it's more likely that devolution would be suspended than independence accepted...