Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2016

[ChrisDR68]

Conservative Home has done a survey and Leadsom already leads May by 38% to 37%.

The rest are nowhere.



http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/07/our-special-next-party-leader-survey-result-its-a-two-horse-race-activists-want-leadsom-v-may-in-the-final.html

[Phony Moderate]

Boris is backing Leadsom.

[Pandaguineapig]

If that poll is correct Gove has really crashed and burned

[Blair]

Leadsom as PM would be a disaster- the tories have a tendency to pick stupid leaders solely because of muh Europe

[Mr. Morden]

So the first ballot for this is on Tuesday?  What time would they most likely be announcing the results?

To answer my own question, looks like results will be announced at about 7pm UK time:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36709218

[YL]

May 165
Leadsom 66
Gove 48
Crabb 34
Fox 16

So May is way ahead, and Fox has gone.

[Cassius]

Gove is pretty much finished - he'll need to win every one of Liam Fox's backers over and gain support from Crabb to overhaul Leadsom, and tbh I'm inclined to think Fox will back Leadsom anyway.

[Blair]

Hearing murmurings that May is getting MP's to vote tactically for Gove; if they get him in the final round they'd easily win

[ObserverIE]

if they get him in the final round they'd easily win

Famous last words...

[Cassius]

May attempting to blatantly fix the contest in such a way is sure to go down an absolute treat with the rank and file.

[Angel of Death]

Crabb is out and is backing May.

[Blair]

May attempting to blatantly fix the contest in such a way is sure to go down an absolute treat with the rank and file.

Tbh the right of the party have been playing the same game like when they screwed Portillo in 2001. The big and understandable stick up would have been getting May v Crabb in the final two.

Crabb has however pulled out now

[ChrisDR68]

So now the only question is can Gove close the 18 MP gap between himself and Leadsom to get himself on the ballot that goes to the membership.

I hope not.

He's behaved abysmally since the referendum result was announced.

Let the best woman win!

[Antonio the Sixth]

May v. Leadsom would be a lot more interesting to watch for sure.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Leadsom vs Corbyn is like Thatcher vs Foot with both sides on steroids and no Alliance for the moderate heroes. Gonna be a mad couple of years - can't blame the Scots for scarpering.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Leadsom vs Corbyn is like Thatcher vs Foot with both sides on steroids and no Alliance for the moderate heroes. Gonna be a mad couple of years - can't blame the Scots for scarpering.

The LibDems shall rise again!

/ag

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

One small relief is that Priti Patel didn't join in the race. (Well it would be a relief in that elexting her would destroy the Tories for good in huge swathes of the country, but alas she'd zealously take everything else down with her)

[Hnv1]

Leadsom vs Corbyn is like Thatcher vs Foot with both sides on steroids and no Alliance for the moderate heroes. Gonna be a mad couple of years - can't blame the Scots for scarpering.

The LibDems shall rise again!

/ag

No they won't. But I do accept a bizarre hung Parliament if elections come this winter followed by a deadlock and another election next April\May.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

How does one pronounce Leadsom's name? Is it lead [Pb]-some or lead [dominant partner in a dance]-some?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Led-sum ... I believe?

[Phony Moderate]

May could well have a decent honeymoon but her seemingly cold and aloof personality would quite possibly (and permanently) work against her when the going gets tough, a la Gordon Brown.

[YL]

Second round:

May 199
Leadsom 84
------------
Gove 46

May and Leadsom go to the members' ballot.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In a normal situation I'd be amused that the Tory base will almost certainly make the worst choice and pivot off the limits off electability to match us, but the fact that Leadsom will be our PM till 2020 and is probably going to immensely screw up the Article 5 nomination (including Nargle The Fargle being included in the official negotions and the serious consideration of just trading with the EU under WTO rules) is just too much.

[Phony Moderate]

Will probably be a solid yet not overwhelmingly victory for May in the end of something like 55-45, thus getting Leadsom a good spot in the cabinet, maybe even Chancellor (though May would make sure that she's, power-wise, more Nigel Lawson than Gordon Brown).

[afleitch]

So it's sh-t v sh-te