Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017

[FredLindq]

Why?! IF Tories just have a small lead over Labour with Cameron as leader, why would Tories win with Johnson as leader?

[Cassius]

Why?! IF Tories just have a small lead over Labour with Cameron as leader, why would Tories win with Johnson as leader?

I'm doubt they will - on the other hand, Cameron was hardly a masterful politician or campaigner himself.

[vileplume]

Why?! IF Tories just have a small lead over Labour with Cameron as leader, why would Tories win with Johnson as leader?

Because the opposition is also extremely disunited and has a leader who doesn't appeal to very many people beyond the Party's activist base (and a few Greens).

[vileplume]

So, I am looking at the LibDem-held constituencies. Seems like they have not done too badly defending Europe. Of course, the boundaries do not coincide, but it still seems likely that Remain either won, or came very close to winning in Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Southport, Sheffield Hallam, Leeds Northeast,  Ceredigion - and of course in the Orkney/Shetland. Surprisingly, the one in doubt is Carshalton and Wallington (outer London), though still close. Only North Norfolk seems a fairly clear Leave vote. So, at the very least, the pro-Europe stance is not going to endanger the existing (tiny) parliamentary group.

And the upside is huge. Big chunks of London. Oxford/Cambridge/Liverpoool - you name it. This could be the ticket to, at least, a partial recovery.

When I talk of resurgence I do not mean LibDems forming a government or anything like that. But I do think that smthg like reliable 30-50 seats should be a possibility. In England/Wales, of course (there will be no Scotland).

That is pie in the sky I am afraid, to get 50 seats the Lib Dems would need huge swings, the 50th most easy seat for the Lib Dems to take is Watford where the Lib Dems are 25.4% behind the first place Tories!(and that is including Scottish seats, without them the swings needed to get to 50 seats would be even larger). These 50 seats also contain seats like Redcar where the Lib Dems will probably never win ever again. Remember also boundary changes are coming which will likely be very bad for the Lib Dems.

I know Lib Dems are well known for their extreme optimism. But if they decide to be realistic they should focus on holding what they have and heavily target a handful of seats where they were close to winning last time e.g Cambridge, Eastbourne (I would say Lewes but boundary changes will probably make it unwinnable). They should aim to double their representation in parliament and become stong competetors in a handful of other seats for the next election, any more than this is unrealistic.

They may well eventually get back to 30-50 seats but trust me it will take more than one election.

[ag]

So, I am looking at the LibDem-held constituencies. Seems like they have not done too badly defending Europe. Of course, the boundaries do not coincide, but it still seems likely that Remain either won, or came very close to winning in Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Southport, Sheffield Hallam, Leeds Northeast,  Ceredigion - and of course in the Orkney/Shetland. Surprisingly, the one in doubt is Carshalton and Wallington (outer London), though still close. Only North Norfolk seems a fairly clear Leave vote. So, at the very least, the pro-Europe stance is not going to endanger the existing (tiny) parliamentary group.

And the upside is huge. Big chunks of London. Oxford/Cambridge/Liverpoool - you name it. This could be the ticket to, at least, a partial recovery.

When I talk of resurgence I do not mean LibDems forming a government or anything like that. But I do think that smthg like reliable 30-50 seats should be a possibility. In England/Wales, of course (there will be no Scotland).

That is pie in the sky I am afraid, to get 50 seats the Lib Dems would need huge swings, the 50th most easy seat for the Lib Dems to take is Watford where the Lib Dems are 25.4% behind the first place Tories!(and that is including Scottish seats, without them the swings needed to get to 50 seats would be even larger). These 50 seats also contain seats like Redcar where the Lib Dems will probably never win ever again. Remember also boundary changes are coming which will likely be very bad for the Lib Dems.

I know Lib Dems are well known for their extreme optimism. But if they decide to be realistic they should focus on holding what they have and heavily target a handful of seats where they were close to winning last time e.g Cambridge, Eastbourne (I would say Lewes but boundary changes will probably make it unwinnable). They should aim to double their representation in parliament and become stong competetors in a handful of other seats for the next election, any more than this is unrealistic.

They may well eventually get back to 30-50 seats but trust me it will take more than one election.

Ok, it might take a couple of elections. Then, again, until Scotland secedes, we may be observing Westminster elections with a somewhat increased frequency

[vileplume]

So, I am looking at the LibDem-held constituencies. Seems like they have not done too badly defending Europe. Of course, the boundaries do not coincide, but it still seems likely that Remain either won, or came very close to winning in Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Southport, Sheffield Hallam, Leeds Northeast,  Ceredigion - and of course in the Orkney/Shetland. Surprisingly, the one in doubt is Carshalton and Wallington (outer London), though still close. Only North Norfolk seems a fairly clear Leave vote. So, at the very least, the pro-Europe stance is not going to endanger the existing (tiny) parliamentary group.

And the upside is huge. Big chunks of London. Oxford/Cambridge/Liverpoool - you name it. This could be the ticket to, at least, a partial recovery.

When I talk of resurgence I do not mean LibDems forming a government or anything like that. But I do think that smthg like reliable 30-50 seats should be a possibility. In England/Wales, of course (there will be no Scotland).

That is pie in the sky I am afraid, to get 50 seats the Lib Dems would need huge swings, the 50th most easy seat for the Lib Dems to take is Watford where the Lib Dems are 25.4% behind the first place Tories!(and that is including Scottish seats, without them the swings needed to get to 50 seats would be even larger). These 50 seats also contain seats like Redcar where the Lib Dems will probably never win ever again. Remember also boundary changes are coming which will likely be very bad for the Lib Dems.

I know Lib Dems are well known for their extreme optimism. But if they decide to be realistic they should focus on holding what they have and heavily target a handful of seats where they were close to winning last time e.g Cambridge, Eastbourne (I would say Lewes but boundary changes will probably make it unwinnable). They should aim to double their representation in parliament and become stong competetors in a handful of other seats for the next election, any more than this is unrealistic.

They may well eventually get back to 30-50 seats but trust me it will take more than one election.

Ok, it might take a couple of elections. Then, again, until Scotland secedes, we may be observing Westminster elections with a somewhat increased frequency

The chances of a general election before 2020 are pretty low I would say. There is no way that the Tories would hold one unless they know that they will get a huge majority. The country is pretty polarised so there isn't much chance of that though I think if a general election was held in a few weeks the Tories would win and get a larger majority than they have now. If Scotland does leave as you appear to want then the Tories chances of getting a majority increase significantly due to the loss of their worst part of the UK.

Also try to refrain from using certainties like 'will' when talking about future events even if you think they are highly likely. Nobody can predict the future and  things often happen which nobody can foresee or as Harold McMillan famously supposed to have said: 'events dear boy, events'.

[Mr. Morden]

If the general election doesn't happen until 2020, what are the odds that it takes place without Scotland?

[StateBoiler]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36632539# - Hilary Benn sacked by Jeremy Corbyn from the Shadow Cabinet amid reports he was orchestrating opposition to Corbyn for the no confidence vote Monday.

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Also:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/hilary-benn-jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-eu-referendum-brexit

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[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully, after Brits start feeling the consequences of Brexit, there will be a swing back to Labour.

[Pandaguineapig]

The labour party needs to separate itself from the anti semitism that has taken over the party sacking Jeremy Corbyn and his buddy red Ken would be a good start

[MaxQue]

The labour party needs to separate itself from the anti semitism that has taken over the party sacking Jeremy Corbyn and his buddy red Ken would be a good start

Ken Livingstone was suspended almost 2 months ago.

[Hnv1]

Heidi Alexander resigns as well, rumours has it we're not done for today

[Harry Hayfield]

Heidi Alexander MP (Lab, Lewisham East) has tendered her resignation and there are expectations that a minimum of 10 Shadow Cabinet members intend to resign by the end of the day (and as many as 14)

[politicallefty]

Provided they have reasonably competent leadership, I can't see how the Tories don't ride this result a very strong Majority Government. The Conservative Party has already proven that it can get a majority from just England and Wales. As someone that mostly supports Labour, I don't see much cause for optimism. With Scotland gone to the SNP, it's hard to see how Labour can even win a hung Parliament. To put it in American terms, it's almost like having California voting solely for an independence party. (In 2012, without California, Romney would have won with Florida and just 7 other electoral votes while still losing the nationwide popular vote by about 2 million votes.)

[Zinneke]

Provided they have reasonably competent leadership, I can't see how the Tories don't ride this result a very strong Majority Government. The Conservative Party has already proven that it can get a majority from just England and Wales. As someone that mostly supports Labour, I don't see much cause for optimism. With Scotland gone to the SNP, it's hard to see how Labour can even win a hung Parliament. To put it in American terms, it's almost like having California voting solely for an independence party. (In 2012, without California, Romney would have won with Florida and just 7 other electoral votes while still losing the nationwide popular vote by about 2 million votes.)

There's no way that ordinary swing-voter people don't punish the Tories for not having a coherent plan after Brexit. I base that off them only having a 10-seat majority.

[Cassius]

The trouble is, there is no coherent plan for Brexit because the EU has not made proper provision for the 'shocking' scenario in which a nation decides to leave - sure, there is the mandated two year period of negotiation, but there are no specific plans on the table that could be readily adopted by both sides written into treaties in the event of a country leaving. Whilst it's true that the Leave side have been rather cavalier in this regard (one of the chief reasons I switched to supporting Remain), it's also true to say they can't put a plan to the public until the EU gives some sort of clear indication as to what the starting terms will be, as opposed to wibbling and wobbling between hardline stances (ie Juncker) and more conciliatory ones (ie Merkel).

[Harry Hayfield]

Current resignations:

Conservative Resignations
David Cameron MP (Witney) Prime Minister

Labour Resignations
Hillary Benn MP (Leeds Central) Technically sacked Shadow Foreign Secretary
Heidi Alexander MP (Lewisham East) Shadow Health Secretary
Gloria de Piero MP (Ashfield) Shadow Minister with responsibility for young people
Ian Murray MP (Edinburgh South) Shadow Scottish Secretary
Lucy Powell MP (Manchester Central) Shadow Education Secretary
Kerry McCarthy MP (Bristol East) Shadow Environment Secretary
Seema Malhora MP (Feltham and Heston) Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury
Lilian Greenwood MP (Nottingham South) Shadow Transport Secretary
Vernon Coaker MP (Gedling) Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
Lord Falconer Shadow Justice Secretary
Chris Bryant MP (Rhondda) Shadow Leader of the House
Tony Perkins MP (Chesterfield) Shadow Armed Forces Minister
Anna Turley MP (Redcar) Shadow Minister for the Civil Society
Chris Matheson MP (City of Chester) PPS to the Shadow Justice Team
Diana Johnson MP (Kingston upon Hull North) Shadow Foreign Office Minister
Stephen Kinnock MP (Aberavon) PPS to Shadow Business Team

New Shadow Cabinet
Shadow foreign secretary - Emily Thornberry (Islington South)
Shadow health secretary - Diane Abbott (Hackney North)
Shadow education secretary - Pat Glass (Durham North West)
Shadow transport secretary - Andy McDonald (Middlesbrough)
Shadow defence secretary – Clive Lewis (Norwich South)
Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury – Rebecca Long-Bailey (Salford and Eccles)
Shadow international development secretary – Kate Osamor (Edmonton)
Shadow environment, food and rural affairs secretary – Rachel Maskell (York Central)
Shadow voter engagement and youth affairs – Cat Smith (Lancaster and Fleetwood)
Shadow Northern Ireland secretary – Dave Anderson (Blaydon)

[politicallefty]

There's no way that ordinary swing-voter people don't punish the Tories for not having a coherent plan after Brexit. I base that off them only having a 10-seat majority.

Ordinarily, I would agree with you. Once again, I think the big caveat is the leadership in each party for the next election. But I just cannot see the UKIP vote staying anywhere close to the 12.6% it got nationwide last year. The Labour vote was a mess during this referendum. I think the UKIP vote will drop and be disproportionately Conservative. I can't see any hit by the Conservatives being any worse than the hit taken by Labour.

[Diouf]

There's no way that ordinary swing-voter people don't punish the Tories for not having a coherent plan after Brexit. I base that off them only having a 10-seat majority.

Ordinarily, I would agree with you. Once again, I think the big caveat is the leadership in each party for the next election. But I just cannot see the UKIP vote staying anywhere close to the 12.6% it got nationwide last year. The Labour vote was a mess during this referendum. I think the UKIP vote will drop and be disproportionately Conservative. I can't see any hit by the Conservatives being any worse than the hit taken by Labour.

UKIP vote drop? I would think that most of those Conservatives, who might lend their vote to UKIP purely due to Euroscepticism, ended up staying with the Conservatives in 2015 due to the referendum pledge. I would expect UKIP to rise, perhaps especially with former Labour voters who saw almost all Labour MPs in favour of remaining. Most of those who voted UKIP in 2015 bought the whole package of anti-globalization, so I'm pretty sure they don't see this vote as "job done" at all.

[StateBoiler]

Provided they have reasonably competent leadership, I can't see how the Tories don't ride this result a very strong Majority Government. The Conservative Party has already proven that it can get a majority from just England and Wales. As someone that mostly supports Labour, I don't see much cause for optimism. With Scotland gone to the SNP, it's hard to see how Labour can even win a hung Parliament. To put it in American terms, it's almost like having California voting solely for an independence party. (In 2012, without California, Romney would have won with Florida and just 7 other electoral votes while still losing the nationwide popular vote by about 2 million votes.)

There's no way that ordinary swing-voter people don't punish the Tories for not having a coherent plan after Brexit. I base that off them only having a 10-seat majority.

Who else are they going to vote for? Labour are clearly out of touch with their base looking at how northern England voted and the party is in the middle of a political coup. The Liberal Democrats are in the wilderness. The only other party that gets a significant share of the vote is UKIP. The SNP would sweep Scotland again.

The only thing I can state with any confidence if an election was held now is the Liberal Democrats' share of the vote would go up from little to small, and UKIP would likely take some voters from both the Conservatives and Labour. The Conservatives and Labour are both right now divided into Leave and Remain camps and that is the single most overarching issue in British politics, moreso than right-wing versus left-wing. Both the two main parties have no clarity on the issue from member to member, and UKIP's clarity so you know what they stand for will aid them (as it would also to the SNP, Liberal Democrats, and Greens). In Labour's case, their leader is Leave in disagreement with what was his Shadow Cabinet before they all resigned. In the Conservatives' case, their leader is Remain and he just quit.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If there is a General Election (and this is not even close to being certain!) it will take place towards the end of the year or perhaps towards the start of the next one. A lot will have happened between now and then. There is no way of telling what the polls will look like by that point, particularly as we don't even know who will be leading the various parties and on what sort of platforms they will be running. Therefore confident speculation about that is just silly.

[Vega]

If there is a General Election (and this is not even close to being certain!) it will take place towards the end of the year or perhaps towards the start of the next one. A lot will have happened between now and then. There is no way of telling what the polls will look like by that point, particularly as we don't even know who will be leading the various parties and on what sort of platforms they will be running. Therefore confident speculation about that is just silly.

Winter elections are generally bad for turnout, aren't they?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You should never, ever trust reports of 'internal polling' particularly when it is not clearly exactly what sort of survey it supposedly was but...

It shows that just 71% of those who voted for Ed Miliband’s Labour party in May last year say they would vote Labour now, and this drops further – to 67% – among working and lower middle-class C2DE voters.

That is not actually a statistically significant difference, particularly given the issues that exist with poll internals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Winter elections are generally bad for turnout, aren't they?

There hasn't been one for forty years so who knows.

[StateBoiler]

You should never, ever trust reports of 'internal polling' particularly when it is not clearly exactly what sort of survey it supposedly was but...

It shows that just 71% of those who voted for Ed Miliband’s Labour party in May last year say they would vote Labour now, and this drops further – to 67% – among working and lower middle-class C2DE voters.

That is not actually a statistically significant difference, particularly given the issues that exist with poll internals.

Write the Guardian and complain to them about their shoddy journalism then. They published it.