Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some tasks are beyond any one man...

[Antonio the Sixth]

You should never, ever trust reports of 'internal polling' particularly when it is not clearly exactly what sort of survey it supposedly was but...

It shows that just 71% of those who voted for Ed Miliband’s Labour party in May last year say they would vote Labour now, and this drops further – to 67% – among working and lower middle-class C2DE voters.

That is not actually a statistically significant difference, particularly given the issues that exist with poll internals.

Write the Guardian and complain to them about their shoddy journalism then. They published it.

Newspaper does not understand how polling works. News at 11.

[Harry Hayfield]

To give you an idea of the number of resignations from the Labour Shadow Cabinet since early on Sunday morning, here's the BBC's page on the matter

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36633158

53 presses of the Page Down button (when most articles only require three)

[Clyde1998]

If the general election doesn't happen until 2020, what are the odds that it takes place without Scotland?

Ladbrokes will give you 6/4 on Scotland voting for independence before the end of 2020. That's an implied probability of 40%. The 2020 election would take place in May, so I guess - just below 40%.

[Harry Hayfield]

Jeremy Hunt MP (Con, Surrey South West) has confirmed that he will be seeking nomination to enter the Conservative leadership election and has made a couple of interesting statements. Those statements include holding a second referendum and a general election.

[Zinneke]

I fail to see why a general election this early is neccessary.

Because only 100 MPs in Westminster were elected believing they would exit the EU. THe Brexiteers themselves have no idea what to do. A general election would at least allow the parties to lay out their plans for Brexit. Right now its down to the Conservative Party Leadership election, a party with just a 10-seat majority in danger of entering civil war.

Labour and Conservatives should really split now.

[Hnv1]

I fail to see why a general election this early is neccessary.

Because only 100 MPs in Westminster were elected believing they would exit the EU. THe Brexiteers themselves have no idea what to do. A general election would at least allow the parties to lay out their plans for Brexit. Right now its down to the Conservative Party Leadership election, a party with just a 10-seat majority in danger of entering civil war.

Labour and Conservatives should really split now.

a GE will with high probability return a hung parliament and an even bigger constitutional crisis now

[ChrisDR68]

Corbyn loses vote of confidence 172-40.

[Gass3268]

Corbyn loses vote of confidence 172-40.

Corbyn refuses to resign, says no confidence vote has 'no constitutional legitimacy'

[Paleobrazilian]

Boris' camp says he won't call a snap election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Corbyn loses vote of confidence 172-40.

Corbyn refuses to resign, says no confidence vote has 'no constitutional legitimacy'

Christ.

[Gass3268]

Corbyn loses vote of confidence 172-40.

Corbyn refuses to resign, says no confidence vote has 'no constitutional legitimacy'

Christ.

He is technically correct, but I agree with your sentiments.

[Yeahsayyeah]

They should not hold Party leader elections by popular vote, if they dump the winning candidate at the first possible moment under fabricated accusations.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Corbyn loses vote of confidence 172-40.

Corbyn refuses to resign, says no confidence vote has 'no constitutional legitimacy'

Christ.

He is technically correct, but I agree with your sentiments.

Why would it need constitutional legitimacy if it's internal party business? Does Corbyn actually intend to take it to courts or something?

[Gass3268]

Corbyn loses vote of confidence 172-40.

Corbyn refuses to resign, says no confidence vote has 'no constitutional legitimacy'

Christ.

He is technically correct, but I agree with your sentiments.

Why would it need constitutional legitimacy if it's internal party business? Does Corbyn actually intend to take it to courts or something?

I think me meant the party's constitution/rules.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Corbyn loses vote of confidence 172-40.

Corbyn refuses to resign, says no confidence vote has 'no constitutional legitimacy'

Christ.

He is technically correct, but I agree with your sentiments.

Why would it need constitutional legitimacy if it's internal party business? Does Corbyn actually intend to take it to courts or something?

I think me meant the party's constitution/rules.

So is there no fixed procedure to call for a leadership election unless the incumbent leader resigns?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So is there no fixed procedure to call for a leadership election unless the incumbent leader resigns?

There can be a challenge. Which is going to happen.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Paging ag...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How many classic Lib Dem seats and targets voted Remain anyway?

[ObserverIE]

How many classic Lib Dem seats and targets voted Remain anyway?

St. Albans (mentioned elsewhere), Bath, Cheltenham, Lewes, Oxford West, Winchester, Cambridge, Harrogate, Richmond, Twickenham, Kingston, Guildford, Hazel Grove, Cheadle?

[ag]

Paging ag...

Of course. This is a no-brainer. One does not have to be a prophet to figure this out

[ag]

How many classic Lib Dem seats and targets voted Remain anyway?

St. Albans (mentioned elsewhere), Bath, Cheltenham, Lewes, Oxford West, Winchester, Cambridge, Harrogate, Richmond, Twickenham, Kingston, Guildford, Hazel Grove, Cheadle?

Many more. Of course, we do not have constituency data, but we can conjecture on the basis of what we have. Actually, of the currently-held seats, of which 7 are in England/Wales, it would seem that in, at least 5 Remain either won or was very close (Westmorland and Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam, Leeds NW, Southport and Ceredigion - and, of course, Orkney and Shetland as well, but that is abroad now). Carshallton and Wallington may have gone to Leave, but with a margin similar to the national one. North Norfolk, it seems, is the only clearly Leave seat they currently hold - though Norwich itself voted to Remain.

[YL]

How many classic Lib Dem seats and targets voted Remain anyway?

St. Albans (mentioned elsewhere), Bath, Cheltenham, Lewes, Oxford West, Winchester, Cambridge, Harrogate, Richmond, Twickenham, Kingston, Guildford, Hazel Grove, Cheadle?

Many more. Of course, we do not have constituency data, but we can conjecture on the basis of what we have. Actually, of the currently-held seats, of which 7 are in England/Wales, it would seem that in, at least 5 Remain either won or was very close (Westmorland and Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam, Leeds NW, Southport and Ceredigion - and, of course, Orkney and Shetland as well, but that is abroad now). Carshallton and Wallington may have gone to Leave, but with a margin similar to the national one. North Norfolk, it seems, is the only clearly Leave seat they currently hold - though Norwich itself voted to Remain.

I'm pretty sure Southport would be more Leave than the bits of Sefton which are really a northern extension of Liverpool, so would question that one.

[Diouf]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3640768/Browns-looking-for-a-Scottish-ally.html

[dspNY]

There almost has to be a snap election because whoever the new Tory PM is needs to face the voters for a binding mandate (or for rejection)