Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017

[Harry Hayfield]

A poll that came out today suggested that 52% of the population would like to see an immediate general election, which according to 68% would "help clear the air". However, none of the Conservatives standing for the leadership are either in favour of the idea or have not commented on it.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

You'd think the Tories would want an early election - I mean labour would hardly be a huge challenge to heat right now, even if Prime Minister Fox has given the keys to the treasury to the swarthy guy he met on Grindr.

[Angel of Death]

If Article 50 is not invoked before the next general election, there's a good chance it won't ever be because of dueling mandates.

[Harry Hayfield]

As stated earlier neither May nor Leadsome have said that there will be a general election before May 2020 if they are elected, but a large number of voices (outside the usual circles) are calling for one including the London School of Economics http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/07/07/general-election-article-50/

[Antonio the Sixth]

The sad thing is that, if there was an election tomorrow, the Tories would probably win it.

[ChrisDR68]

I've always considered the greatest electoral asset the Conservatives have is the Labour Party and the fear of a Labour government.

If Labour manage to get themselves an attractive and electable leader there is a natural majority in this country that will vote them into power as Blair's three victories show. The British are essentially very moderately social democratic in outlook.

Labour though prefers to elect leaders based on which faction they belong to rather than how electable or popular in the country they are.

That's true of Foot, Kinnock, Miliband and Corbyn who together represent 4 of their last 5 general election defeats. The odd one out (Brown) was undone by the global financial crisis and it's aftermath.

Miliband's idea of moving electing their leader by one member one vote has put the party in a bind due to the surge of far leftists joining up. Those people will always vote for the most left wing candidate with the ultimate effect of keeping Labour out of power.

[Harry Hayfield]

In a discussion on Twitter last night, several people who follow the polls suggested that a Conservative majority of 100 was easily on the cards (increasing to at least 150 if Labour split) which thanks to the proposed boundary changes that are seen as being very friendly to the Conservatives the prospect for a 2021 general election being a starting point of a Conservative majority of between 125 and 150

[Cassius]

Apparently (and obviously take this with a truckload of salt as I've only heard this in the Spectator and Torygraph, and the idea just seems bizarre anyway) a movement is afoot, should Labour fail to dislodge Corbyn and Leadsom wins the Tory leadership, by 'moderate' Conservative and Labour MP's to form a new 'centrist', 'pro business' and pro European party. Obviously, if such a thing did happen it would likely be a hilarious disaster.

[Blair]

I've always considered the greatest electoral asset the Conservatives have is the Labour Party and the fear of a Labour government.

If Labour manage to get themselves an attractive and electable leader there is a natural majority in this country that will vote them into power as Blair's three victories show. The British are essentially very moderately social democratic in outlook.

Labour though prefers to elect leaders based on which faction they belong to rather than how electable or popular in the country they are.

That's true of Foot, Kinnock, Miliband and Corbyn who together represent 4 of their last 5 general election defeats. The odd one out (Brown) was undone by the global financial crisis and it's aftermath.

Miliband's idea of moving electing their leader by one member one vote has put the party in a bind due to the surge of far leftists joining up. Those people will always vote for the most left wing candidate with the ultimate effect of keeping Labour out of power.

For the record One Member One vote was always favoured by the right of the party, and was brought in after he won in 2010 because of the 'Union Block vote'

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Apparently (and obviously take this with a truckload of salt as I've only heard this in the Spectator and Torygraph, and the idea just seems bizarre anyway) a movement is afoot, should Labour fail to dislodge Corbyn and Leadsom wins the Tory leadership, by 'moderate' Conservative and Labour MP's to form a new 'centrist', 'pro business' and pro European party. Obviously, if such a thing did happen it would likely be a hilarious disaster.

Ugh. Gag.

[ChrisDR68]

Apparently (and obviously take this with a truckload of salt as I've only heard this in the Spectator and Torygraph, and the idea just seems bizarre anyway) a movement is afoot, should Labour fail to dislodge Corbyn and Leadsom wins the Tory leadership, by 'moderate' Conservative and Labour MP's to form a new 'centrist', 'pro business' and pro European party. Obviously, if such a thing did happen it would likely be a hilarious disaster.

What's the point?

Why not just join the Liberal Democrats and rename them the Social and Liberal Democrats?

Oh wait...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently (and obviously take this with a truckload of salt as I've only heard this in the Spectator and Torygraph, and the idea just seems bizarre anyway) a movement is afoot, should Labour fail to dislodge Corbyn and Leadsom wins the Tory leadership, by 'moderate' Conservative and Labour MP's to form a new 'centrist', 'pro business' and pro European party. Obviously, if such a thing did happen it would likely be a hilarious disaster.

What's the point?

Why not just join the Liberal Democrats and rename them the Social and Liberal Democrats?

Oh wait...

What did Marx say about history repeating itself?

[Diouf]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Crossposted from Scruffy Atlas:

So let's say that May goes back on her word and wants an early election asap. Two dates to note: she kisses hands on the 13th and Parliament breaks up for the Summer on the 21st. Given the stupid FTPA (see provisions here) we can therefore presumably rule out any prospect of an election being called before the Summer Recess, although 2016 is 2016. Parliament then returns briefly in September (5th) before buggering off again for Conference season (15th September to 10th October).

Anyway May is a lot of things but she's not a fool and won't want to piss away what she's strived so openly for for so long. The GB figures for the 2015 GE were Con 38, Labour 31, UKIP 13, LDem 8%, SNP 5%, Greens 4%. She would want, I would guess, a substantially larger poll lead than that (because otherwise you'd be as much at risk of losing the majority as increasing it) and for it to seem stable for there to be any chance of her going for it at all. I could be reading her wrong of course.

[Harry Hayfield]

Crossposted from Scruffy Atlas:

So let's say that May goes back on her word and wants an early election asap. Two dates to note: she kisses hands on the 13th and Parliament breaks up for the Summer on the 21st. Given the stupid FTPA (see provisions here) we can therefore presumably rule out any prospect of an election being called before the Summer Recess, although 2016 is 2016. Parliament then returns briefly in September (5th) before buggering off again for Conference season (15th September to 10th October).

Anyway May is a lot of things but she's not a fool and won't want to piss away what she's strived so openly for for so long. The GB figures for the 2015 GE were Con 38, Labour 31, UKIP 13, LDem 8%, SNP 5%, Greens 4%. She would want, I would guess, a substantially larger poll lead than that (because otherwise you'd be as much at risk of losing the majority as increasing it) and for it to seem stable for there to be any chance of her going for it at all. I could be reading her wrong of course.

Based on the average swing to the government when Brown replaced Blair and Major replaced Thatcher, there could be a 20% Con lead by the start of September (that could produce a Con majority of well over 125)

[Helsinkian]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/752627481400795137

[Harry Hayfield]

Although there is no requirement for the new Prime Minister to hold a general election, given how the Conservatives badgered Gordon Brown to hold an election (and then he bottled it at the last minute) I would be very surprised if the new Prime Minister did not call a general election shortly after his election in October. However, of course, that would mean having to square the circle of the Fixed Term Parliament Act (which requires 426 MP's to vote for an election). I suppose one possible option would to be offer the government's resignation and then challenge Labour and the SNP to form a majority (which is impossible) and then hold an election.

When I first started note I said HIS election. Therefore does the fact that it's a lady mean that only ladies will be able to comment on the likelihood of a new election?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Or just repeal the FTPA with a simple majority? Laws like these are pretty useless in a country with no constitution to speak of.

[IceAgeComing]

But then you have to get the thing through the House of Lords and that's not been easy for this government, although that might be a step too far...  Its certainly something that takes time, and the government doesn't have a majority there so can't rush it through quick enough to make it at all worthwhile.

I think its a given now though that we won't have any move towards an early election towards September, unless we hear about the recall of parliament earlier than the planned return.  Assuming a decent campaigning period; any election would be in late October which is probably too far away for May to have much of a honeymoon period bump anymore, plus Labour should have decided their leader by then anyway although they'll probably still be arguing about it.  That's the only time that I think that she'd go: any later would lead to a winter election and I think that they'd want to avoid having one of those if at all possible.

[Phony Moderate]

She's too busy reading our emails to have even an ounce of self-awareness or principle.

[Blair]

In all fairness if I was asked in a poll who the better PM would be I'd say May- but that wouldn't mean I'd vote Tory

[Filuwaúrdjan]

May's team is continuing to be very firm about there being no GE.

[Antonio the Sixth]

May's team is continuing to be very firm about there being no GE.

At this point, Labourites better pray she's honest.

[Harry Hayfield]

May gives a statement on an early election

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In other words, NO snap election

[Phony Moderate]

May gives a statement on an early election

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In other words, NO snap election

Prime Minister Boris will call a snap election in autumn 2017.