Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017

[Harry Hayfield]

Yvette Cooper MP (Lab, Normanton) has suggested on Twitter that there will be an early election that will either be called on September 21st for October 20th as part of a dastardly scheme by the Conservatives to ruin their big day of announcing the winner of the Labour leadership election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yvette Cooper MP (Lab, Normanton) has suggested on Twitter that there will be an early election that will either be called on September 21st for October 20th as part of a dastardly scheme by the Conservatives to ruin their big day of announcing the winner of the Labour leadership election.

I love how Labour leaders seem to view national politics as a distraction from their internal squabbles. Says everything you need to know about their priorities.

[Phony Moderate]

Bit of trivia: The last time a British GE campaign conincided with an US presidential general election campaign was 1964.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bit of trivia: The last time a British GE campaign conincided with an US presidential general election campaign was 1964.

And in both countries the left won triumphantly. Hopefully it's a sign...

[Gary J]

Yvette Cooper MP (Lab, Normanton) has suggested on Twitter that there will be an early election that will either be called on September 21st for October 20th as part of a dastardly scheme by the Conservatives to ruin their big day of announcing the winner of the Labour leadership election.

Exactly how does the government get around the Fixed-term Parliaments Act in just over 2 months, with Parliament in recess for most of it?

[DL]

Isn't the Fixed Term Election act just symbolic? If the PM asks the queen to dissolve parliament doesn't she have to agree?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't the Fixed Term Election act just symbolic? If the PM asks the queen to dissolve parliament doesn't she have to agree?

No. There are get-out clauses but they are messy.

[Harry Hayfield]

Yvette Cooper MP (Lab, Normanton) has suggested on Twitter that there will be an early election that will either be called on September 21st for October 20th as part of a dastardly scheme by the Conservatives to ruin their big day of announcing the winner of the Labour leadership election.

Exactly how does the government get around the Fixed-term Parliaments Act in just over 2 months, with Parliament in recess for most of it?

The simple rule of thumb is 429 MP's have to vote for an early election, or there is a vote of no confidence in the existing government and a vote of no confidence in the next government. The first is impossible (as it means Labour voting for an early election) the second is more than possible. May triggers a no confidence motion and whips her MP's to abstain, stating that she wishes to have a mandate (similar to Schroder and Merkel a few years back) and so the motion is carried and the government resigns, Corbyn is then asked to form a government and 14 days later presents it to the House, the Conservatives (who have the majority) vote against it and we have a general election.

[Gary J]

Yvette Cooper MP (Lab, Normanton) has suggested on Twitter that there will be an early election that will either be called on September 21st for October 20th as part of a dastardly scheme by the Conservatives to ruin their big day of announcing the winner of the Labour leadership election.

Exactly how does the government get around the Fixed-term Parliaments Act in just over 2 months, with Parliament in recess for most of it?

The simple rule of thumb is 429 MP's have to vote for an early election, or there is a vote of no confidence in the existing government and a vote of no confidence in the next government. The first is impossible (as it means Labour voting for an early election) the second is more than possible. May triggers a no confidence motion and whips her MP's to abstain, stating that she wishes to have a mandate (similar to Schroder and Merkel a few years back) and so the motion is carried and the government resigns, Corbyn is then asked to form a government and 14 days later presents it to the House, the Conservatives (who have the majority) vote against it and we have a general election.

I accept the suggested approach is possible. I do not see it can be arranged within the timescale Yvonne Cooper was fearing. If Mrs May wanted to trigger an election in the next few months, she would have had to already start the process. Parliament is due to go into a recess after next Thursday.

[politicallefty]

The simple rule of thumb is 429 MP's have to vote for an early election, or there is a vote of no confidence in the existing government and a vote of no confidence in the next government. The first is impossible (as it means Labour voting for an early election) the second is more than possible. May triggers a no confidence motion and whips her MP's to abstain, stating that she wishes to have a mandate (similar to Schroder and Merkel a few years back) and so the motion is carried and the government resigns, Corbyn is then asked to form a government and 14 days later presents it to the House, the Conservatives (who have the majority) vote against it and we have a general election.

That's something I've always wondered about the new fixed elections law in the UK. Your scenario is more convoluted than I think would ever happen. If the PM is trying to force an early election, it's likely the opposition doesn't want it (like right now) and wouldn't have any part of the Government's no-confidence motion. As bad as the optics may be, I think it's more likely the Government gets defeated by its own majority in Parliament. Like I said, it may not be a good political move in the immediate term, but ultimately, people really don't vote on issues of process. How often do governments actually lose a snap election because they called a snap election? If May were to force an election by the end of the year, she's almost guaranteed to catch Labour at its worst.

[DL]

Again, pardon me for being persistent but doesn't the Queen always have to follow the advice of her PM? What if May simply goes to the Queen and says "I request that your majesty dissolve parliament"?

We went through this in Canada. In 2006 the Harper Conservatives passed the "fixed elections act" stating that elections were to be every four years unless parliament voted no confidence in a minority government. In August 2008 Harper decided that he wanted to call a snap early election to try to get a majority. He simply went to the Governor General and requested a dissolution and he got it! The courts subsequently ruled that the Fixed Term law was only symbolic and that nothing could stand in the way of a PM being the only person who could give advice to the crown. Why would it be any different in the UK? The crown is the crown!

[Gary J]

Again, pardon me for being persistent but doesn't the Queen always have to follow the advice of her PM? What if May simply goes to the Queen and says "I request that your majesty dissolve parliament"?

We went through this in Canada. In 2006 the Harper Conservatives passed the "fixed elections act" stating that elections were to be every four years unless parliament voted no confidence in a minority government. In August 2008 Harper decided that he wanted to call a snap early election to try to get a majority. He simply went to the Governor General and requested a dissolution and he got it! The courts subsequently ruled that the Fixed Term law was only symbolic and that nothing could stand in the way of a PM being the only person who could give advice to the crown. Why would it be any different in the UK? The crown is the crown!

The UK Act does not explicitly abolish any extant prerogative powers of the Crown to dissolve Parliament and call a general election. It does impose a comprehensive scheme of when a general election can take place and deletes the previous statute law about the topic.

There may be room for legal argument, but I would interpret the present UK law as excluding a dissolution outside its terms.

[Angel of Death]

The Tories are playing this smart. They know that Labour will likely not be able to get rid of Corbyn before going through a (losing) general election. Putting off the election as long as possible could lengthen their rule for another decade with little opposition.

[Gary J]

I have looked at the Canadian law about fixed term elections. It inserts an explicit provision in the Canada Elections Act regarding the power of the Governor General to dissolve Parliament.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There is nothing remotely comparable to the Canadian provision in the UK legislation.

[DL]

I have looked at the Canadian law about fixed term elections. It inserts an explicit provision in the Canada Elections Act regarding the power of the Governor General to dissolve Parliament.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There is nothing remotely comparable to the Canadian provision in the UK legislation.

I believe that language was inserted because it was so obvious. Under our constitutional monarchy there is no way short of a constitutional amendment for parliament to pass a law that affects the reserve powers of the crown. Of course one thing that is different in the UK is the fact that there is no written constitution in the first place.

What if Theresa May simply used her majority to repeal the Fixed Term Elections act and THEN asked the queen for a dissolution?

[Gary J]

I have looked at the Canadian law about fixed term elections. It inserts an explicit provision in the Canada Elections Act regarding the power of the Governor General to dissolve Parliament.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There is nothing remotely comparable to the Canadian provision in the UK legislation.

I believe that language was inserted because it was so obvious. Under our constitutional monarchy there is no way short of a constitutional amendment for parliament to pass a law that affects the reserve powers of the crown. Of course one thing that is different in the UK is the fact that there is no written constitution in the first place.

What if Theresa May simply used her majority to repeal the Fixed Term Elections act and THEN asked the queen for a dissolution?

Repeal and then dissolve would work. However the Conservatives do not have a majority in the House of Lords, so repealing the 2011 legislation might take time. If the House of Lords reject the bill, it would have to be passed again in the next session, so that the Parliament Act can be used to override the Lords.

[DL]

Probably one big difference between the UK and Canada is that in the UK the monarch is the queen herself and she is there for life and has 1000 history behind her. In Canada the Governor General is invariably some useless flunky appointed by the PM as a pay off. When the PM of Canada tells the Governor General to "jump" the GG says "how high?" In contrast if the PM of Great Britain asked the queen to do something that clearly contravened the law, she would just say NO

[Linus Van Pelt]

The other important difference is that Canada has a written constitution with an explicit amending formula that sets out a more stringent procedure than just an act of the federal Parliament. Under the 1982 amending formula, a change to the powers of the Queen or Governor General requires the consent of the federal Parliament and all the provincial legislatures.

By contrast, in the UK there is no written constitution and no federal system, and there isn't a clear "amending formula" beyond acts of Parliament. So the line between a constitutional amendment and an act of Parliament is less firm.

[Ronnie]

Tories open an 11 point lead over Labour: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-poll-lead-yougov-labour-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-first-pmqs-thatcher-a7146526.html

[Babeuf]

Probably to be expected considering the current Labour infighting and a new-PM bump for May.

Still very concerning numbers though!

[Enny]

I can't at all see there being another General Election anytime soon. If there was it would be relatively the same as the 2015 Election. The Tories dipped a little bit in opinion polls since there, but I've noticed they're going back up since May got in. The most significant difference I predict if an election was held soon is UKIP's vote depleting, due to the loss of Farage as leader and their now lack of relevance. The only thing which could make a General Election's results wildly different is if Labour split. In either case it's good news for the Tories for now.

[Phony Moderate]

UKIP is still the only real option (in England and Wales) for protest voters, and there's long been a fair few such voters.

[Enny]

UKIP is still the only real option (in England and Wales) for protest voters, and there's long been a fair few such voters.

True, but nonetheless UKIP's influence is waning now due to winning the Referendum, Farage's resignation and the Tories promising to implement a proper Brexit....although May's decision to wait until at least 2017 to trigger Article 50 will likely have angered quite a few Kippers.

[Hnv1]

I think Owen Smith can take it, unlike EdM he is from the heart of the soft left and trying to portray him as a Blairite is ridiculous. I can also see a lot of trade union and party members trending to him as left enough and more easy on the ear. Question is how many trots did momentum register through RS

[Phony Moderate]

I think Owen Smith can take it, unlike EdM he is from the heart of the soft left and trying to portray him as a Blairite is ridiculous.

Certain past statements of his put that into question.