2018 Senatorial Elections
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #50 on: October 29, 2016, 08:22:20 PM »


Not likely. She has a 61% favorable rating in Massachusetts.

I think he could have a chance. Things can change, plus if Charlie Baker is still as popular as he is now by 2018, his endorsement could greatly help Weld. Weld was also an extremely popular Republican governor in Massachusetts so he could possibly win that seat if things go perfectly in his favor.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #51 on: October 30, 2016, 10:31:52 PM »

Curt Schilling is a lot more popular than Weld.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #52 on: November 19, 2016, 08:39:48 PM »

Charlie Baker and Elizabeth Warren will be reelected.
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Cynthia
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« Reply #53 on: November 25, 2016, 12:58:58 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2016, 01:05:16 AM by ueutyi »

Arizona: Tossup
California: Likely D (top two)
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Likely D (Lean D if Nelson retires)
Hawaii: Safe D
Indiana: Tossup
Maine: Likely I
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Likely D
Minnesota: Likely D
Mississippi: Likely R
Missouri: Tossup
Montana: Lean D
Nebraska: Likely R
Nevada: Lean D
New Jersey: Likely D
New Mexico: Likely D
New York: Safe D
North Dakota: Tossup
Ohio: Lean D
Pennsylvania: Lean D
Rhode Island: Safe D
Tennessee: Safe R (Lean R if Corker retires and Cooper runs)
Texas: Likely R (depends on how bad Trump performs--if Hispanic turnout is near black turnout level TX would be purple lean-D right now)
Utah: Safe R (Lean R if Matheson runs and Hatch retires)
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Lean D
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Lean D
Wisconsin: Likely D (Lean D if Walker runs)
Wyoming: Safe R
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UncleSam
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« Reply #54 on: January 03, 2017, 03:25:40 AM »

Most races two years out are heavily reliant on Trump's performance over the first 12 - 18 months of his presidency - if the economy is strong (or if a downturn happens within a year or so of his taking office == blame it on Obama) that's good, if he can extricate the US while keeping ISIS down that's good, if he can get the murder rate in Chicago down / prevent major terrorist attacks both would help as well. Obviously failure on any of those metrics / inflammatory failures would have the reverse effect, and generally little progress made on the jobs front would probably be pretty harmful as well for Trump and the Republicans. Failing to pass a replacement for Obamacare to extend coverage to at least a vast majority of those who will lose coverage when they repeal it would probably be disastrous.

With that being said I'll rank how likely the Democrats are to win each race, with expected cutoffs for how Trump is performing. No difference within a tier outside of tier 3, which is ranked, again, by the likelihood of the Democrat winning:
Tier 1: The Safe Dem races
These are races that the Democrats will win barring an unheard of collapse somewhere, Todd Akin level primary shenanigans, or a disastrously terrible nationwide environment for Dems
California: Safe D (note: for a Senate race the party will not let a R vs. R emerge out of the primary - I could definitely see the Dems get caught sleeping on a lesser race, but not Senate)
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Hawaii: Safe D
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Safe D
New York: Safe D
Rhode Island: Safe D
Vermont: Safe I (effectively D)
Washington: Safe D

Tier 2: Pls no more Russ Feingolds
In reality these races are probably closer to the Duckworth - Kirk level of competitiveness - the Democrat will probably win by double digits in most / all of these, depending on the political climate; still, there's a decent chance that one of these could surprise Democrats in a bad year
Michigan: Likely D (Stabenow, as disliked by Michigan Republicans as she is, probably won't get knocked off even by Snyder in a Republican wave year; only reason this really needs be said is that Trump just won Michigan)
Minnesota: Likely D
New Jersey: Likely D
New Mexico: Likely D

Cutoff 1: Republican dream wave year: Trump is highly favorable, Republicans successfully implement an Obamacare replacement that works much better, Trump assassinates Kim Jong-Un, defeats ISIS, saves orphans from trees around the world, and Paul Ryan wins the lottery so that they can balance the budget. Trump Net Favorability: more popular than Jesus in Mississippi

Tier 3: This is where the seats will flip
These range from Democrat-leaning to Republican-leaning, but any of these seats could easily change hands based on the national climate, eventual candidates, and numerous other things that could change between now and then.
Virginia: Lean/Likely D - Kaine could potentially be vulnerable to a Mark Warner-esque challenge in a surprisingly strong Republican year, as he came off rather poorly from losing the election as Clinton's VP and Trump could cut down on many government jobs, that would in turn stall population / economic growth in the DC suburbs around Arlington / Fairfax county that drives Democratic strength in the state. This seat will probably be closer to Tier 2 or even Tier 1 by the time election day rolls around, though. One thing to keep an eye on is whether Barbara Comstock decides to run for the Republicans (a decision that, in turn, will probably be influenced by the results of the 2017 gubernatorial election) - Comstock would be a strong challenger who just won a swing district that Clinton won on the presidential level and, if the Virginia GOP were galvanized by a Gillespie win in 2017, she could bring this closer to tossup / lean D territory.
Pennsylvania: Lean D - Casey is a strong, popular incumbent, and his loss from where we stand now would be shocking. That being said, Democrats did manage to lose the presidential race and a senate race in a year with presidential turnout from Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs, which has to be scary to Casey. Any negative change in public perception towards Trump would almost certainly secure this seats' future, but if Pennsylvania starts to rebound and Trump starts campaigning here, this could just as easily go into the tossup or even lean R category. I think this state is probably Bluer (meaning Democrat, idk why this board has switched the colors) than it voted this past November, however, and that if Trump is even merely moderately popular Casey should be able to hold on.
Maine: Lean I (effectively D) - Maine is a state that is trending Red (aka Republican, I'll stop verifying what I mean by this colloquialism from here on out) overall, but in which a left-leaning Independent like King should be able to hold on barring an unexpected challenge from the left by a 'real' Democrat. I doubt LePage would beat him even in pretty good Republican conditions, but Trump ran pretty strong here and Maine has a Republican Governor and Senator already - stranger things have happened.

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UncleSam
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« Reply #55 on: January 03, 2017, 03:26:52 AM »
« Edited: January 03, 2017, 03:39:23 AM by UncleSam »


Cutoff 2: Trump is, surprisingly to many people, far from a disaster. He scores a few minor wins on convincing companies like Carrier to move jobs back, he avoids major conflicts overseas, doesn't do anything spectacular (like defeating ISIS, preventing Syrian massacres, etc.) but manages to hammer out a bi-partisan infrastructure deal and gets a reasonably-received ObamaCare replacement in place. Aka things go about as well as Republicans could hope for. Trump Net Favorability: +10 to +25


Florida: Lean D / Tilt D - Florida is a Red-leaning state with Republicans winning at just about every level of government, and which barely voted for Obama in a year where Obama won nationally by almost four points (2012). That being said, Nelson is the kind of moderate, incumbent Democrat who should withstand most challenges - the main issue for him is that Rick Scott has already amassed a large amount of money to (presumably) challenge him with, and is well known. The good news is that Rick Scott isn't very popular outside of the Republican party, and even there he isn't exactly beloved. If this race goes down to the wire, however, it seems like the sort of race Democrats might 'expect' to win then be disappointed by (such as Charlie Crist's loss to Scott or Clinton's loss to Trump this past year in Florida). Any neutral or positive political climate would be hugely beneficial to Nelson, however, and he is definitely the favorite from where we stand today. If Nelson loses this race, it would truly be disastrous for the Democrats, because they cannot afford to be shut out out of Florida's national seats - there's just too many crimson red Republican states for them to be able to get shut out in a tilt-R state like Florida and still hold the senate.
Wisconsin: Lean D / Tilt D - I'll probably be disagreeing with many on this board with this, but it sure looks to me like Wisconsin is trending Red, and fast. Democrats were astounded to lose here on a presidential level, but more scary to Democrats should be the fact that Ron Johnson defeated Russ Feingold by a surprisingly-large 4% statewide, a result that Democrats (and many others) expected to be reversed or better in their direction. Scott Walker and Paul Ryan have built a GOP machine in Wisconsin and, given they've already set their sights on Baldwin, I think Democrats really will need to batten down the hatches to hold this one. With all that being said, Baldwin is a relatively popular incumbent who should be able to galvanize the progressive base of her party and would be a favorite as of today against any prospective challenger. It helps that Duffy, the frontrunner as of now for the GOP nomination, is a more traditional establishment Republican who could be vulnerable in many of the western, working-class counties that Trump flipped but which have reliably voted Democrat for many years. Would flipping those back offset presumed gains in the Milwaukee suburbs by a more traditional Republican? I think the answer is yes, and that Baldwin should be able to carry this in the end barring a good Republican environment.
Ohio: Tilt D - Sherrod Brown is in trouble, and even he knows it. Ohio has always leaned a bit Red, but Trump just stomped Clinton there and did a full 10% better than he did nationally in this state. Meanwhile, Brown is a true-blue progressive who already has a solid Trump-esque challenger in Mandel (who, to be fair, he beat somewhat easily back in 2012) and a potential moderate establishment type challenger in Tibieri (a favorite of Kasich's). The fact that Brown is already e-mailing donors looking for a start on this race should point to how competitive it will probably be, and it honestly is very similar to Florida in terms of a seat they need to keep to have any realistic hopes of taking the senate back in 2020. While Brown will be strongly challenged, I think he is nonetheless a slight, slight favorite as of now, and should benefit tremendously from even slight negatives in Trump's performance, particularly on the economy / job numbers.
Nevada: Tilt D / Tossup - Heller is viewed a lot more vulnerable than he probably actually is in my opinion, simply because he is the lone strong Democratic pickup opportunity of this cycle. That being said, given how people's (and therefore donors') minds work, any signs of weakness here could well be met by a windfall for whoever (Dina Titus???) challenges him, and Nevada is a state where Republicans have done surprisingly poorly in recent years, even on the state level (where they've dominated throughout most of the country). Heller would benefit massively from a net positive-favorability Trump, but anything less than that and he is probably going to be buried underneath an avalanche of negative Democratic ads aimed at securing at least one pickup to hold their hat on in this cycle.
West Virginia: Tilt D / Tossup - Yes, Manchin is popular, and yes, if anyone can win here it's him. But the state has shifted hard right in recent years, and even Jim Justice's gubernatorial win here against a weak Republican candidate won't do much to assuage Manchin's stomach when looking at Clinton's 42-point loss here. Simply put, Obama's 'clean coal' plan packaged with Clinton's outright stated goal of putting coal companies out of business has made establishment Democrats less popular than cancer here, but, to Manchin's saving grace, that doesn't quite tell the whole story. West Virginia, like Montana, is a bit of a bizarre state with many Republican-leaning swing voters (who, in this state, are frequently once-upon-a-time Blue Dog Democrats who've shifted hard right only in the last twenty or so years). Manchin is still popular and has a legitimate conservative record on many of the issues Democrats have become despised on in this state, and given that there are many in this state who still remember voting for the Democratic party, it's not out of the question at all that Manchin could follow up Justice's win with a similar win (perhaps even by double digits). The issue for Manchin is that it's also entirely possible he will be completely and utterly dead by the time 2018 rolls around, as Republicans will probably try hard to unseat him and the state really is crimson Red nowadays.

Cutoff 3: Trump is a relative neutral force ranging to moderately unpopular, he doesn't get much done, positives are at least matched by negative news cycles, and unexpected threats arise around the world on the level of ISIS. Domestic terrorism on the level of the Pulse nightclub shootings continues or worsens, Trump demonstrates that he routinely loses in foreign relations deals, and can't close the deal on a replacement trade deal for the TPP. Tariffs help the jobs situation here a bit but are matched by increasing prices for a relative wash, and people start to become a bit disillusioned with a candidate who primarily ran on change but who doesn't seem to be changing much, and what he is changing he is doing slowly and without much of a net benefit. Trump Net Favorability: -10 to +10

Montana: Tossup / Tilt R - Prior to Trump's nominating Ryan Zinke to be Interior Secretary I actually thought this was going to be a solid Republican pickup, as Tester is the only true Democrat from any of the solid Red states Democrats will be defending (Montana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana) and, after barely winning in a presidential election year against a sub-standard candidate, he seemed to be a significant underdog against a popular at-large rep who was already gearing up to challenge him. Now, however, I'm not so sure. Tim Fox would still provide a stiff challenge and, given that this is a pretty Red state and in a neutral political climate, I think Tester would go down swinging under such a scenario. Tester does have definite advantages and the president's party often loses races like this one in recent years, however, so given that Tester doesn't yet have a solid challenger and that Montana did just re-elect a popular Democratic governor (albeit over an unknown businessman) I don't think this is any more than a tossup with a slight tilt to the Republicans, but with admittedly lots of variability. This race will change more than most based on how things unfold over the next two years, and is among the most likely to be missed by polling leading up to it.
North Dakota: Tilt R / Lean R - I honestly expected Trump to make Heitkamp his Agriculture Secretary, but now that that's not going to happen we will almost certainly see Heitkamp take on at-large Rep Kevin Cramer in 2018. I wanted to make this Tilt R initially but honestly, North Dakota is another state that has swung hard Right (and which surprised many by the massive margins Trump / Hoeven collected here) and given that Cramer is already gearing up for a fight, I think Heitkamp is probably going to be toast. A favorable climate would make her very competitive, however, and if Trump and the Republicans make a sh**tshow of things in Washington she has a lot of time to bring this one back.
Arizona: Lean R - This is assuming that Flake gets a stringent primary challenge from Ward, who would definitely be an underdog in the general but is perhaps no worse of an underdog in a primary with Flake - keep in mind that she came surprisingly close to beating McCain in the primary, and he's quite popular in Arizona still. That being said, I think Paul Ryan will convince Trump to let bygones be bygones, stay out of the primary, and let the GOP establishment work their magic to keep Flake on the ballot in the general, where he would definitely be a solid favorite against anyone the Democrats nominate. I think that Flake wins this race in the general barring a total meltdown (similar to Cutoff 5 below), and that Ward would need a near miracle (at least Cutoff 2 but maybe closer to 1) to win the general. Not really sure who is in line on the Democratic side; maybe Ann Kirkpatrick again? The fact I've not heard much about who might challenge Flake is a bit puzzling, but makes sense given how the DNC is a bit in shambles right now. This is the sort of race they will have to get on if they want Flake to have any real concerns past the primary.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #56 on: January 03, 2017, 03:27:15 AM »
« Edited: January 03, 2017, 03:47:26 AM by UncleSam »

Cutoff 4: Trump is a poor president. Period. He demonstrates no foreign policy tact, he fails to get any of his major legislative agenda passed despite majorities in both houses of Congress, the Republicans bicker amongst themselves on anything ranging from a replacement for ObamaCare (which they repeal but don't make anything other than a token effort to replace), a balanced budget, immigration reform, and even Trump's SCOTUS nominee. Trump takes increasingly to being bitter on Twitter, and Kellyanne Conway resigns because she already has four children and doesn't need a fifth who also happens to be POTUS. Trump Net Favorability: -10 to -25

Tier 4: AKA pls no more Todd Akins
These are seats the Republicans will almost certainly win, barring major fiascos or a truly disastrous political climate.
Missouri: Likely / Lean R - Fool me once, shame on you, fool me...you know how this goes. McCaskill managed to rig the Republican primaries once, but there's very little chance the Missouri GOP will find a way to not nominate Ann Wagner this time around. Even if they did, there's virtually no chance they'll nominate someone as bad as Todd Akin, and barring a rematch, I just don't see how McCaskill can win. I get that Missouri has a lot of swing voters who almost made Jason Kander the new Junior Senator from Missouri, but Roy Blunt ran about as bad a campaign as you possibly can barring an Akin-level flub and he still won by almost 3 points. I just don't see McCaskill getting any luckier than Kander did, and I doubt she will run as strong a campaign as Kander did. All of which adds up to a race I see Democrats losing even in a year that otherwise would be quite good for them.
Indiana: Likely R - I thought about making this a lean R as well, but I just don't see it. Donnelly isn't liked by the Democratic base, Todd Young (a relatively unknown Rep) just destroyed Evan Bayh (a legendary former senator and governor) by 10 points there, and the current Vice President is from this state and will certainly campaign here barring a disastrous Trump presidency. Indiana is a heavily Republican state and Donnelly doesn't inspire anyone in particular to vote for him. I think he's headed to a double-digit shellacking and I doubt Democrats will try hard to save him given his recent run towards the center. It doesn't help Susan Brooks is being groomed as his successor already to avoid a repeat of the 2012 Indiana Primary fiasco.

Cutoff 5: Major scandal in the Trump administration. Trump resigns in disgrace. Pence tries to make homosexuality a felony. Paul Ryan loses a primary and vanishes ala Eric Cantor, leaving Republicans with no solid showrunners to key off of nationally. Democrats make huge organizational gains in comparison, and work with moderate Republicans to pass a Democrat-led infrastructure bill, keep ObamaCare's coverage while working on fixing how much it costs (presumably be allowing intrastate competition and removing some of the low-value coverage it assigns), and Bernie Sanders is revealed to be the second coming of Christ on earth. Trump Net Favorability: A Yuge Disaster

Tier 5: Safe R. Done.
For Republicans to lose one of these they would have to do something truly, terribly awful. And even then they'd probably hold them.
Mississippi: Safe R
Nebraska: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Safe R (no, the Castro brothers would not mount a serious challenge to Cruz and no neither is likely to run)
Utah: Safe R
Wyoming: Safe R

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arjavrawal
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« Reply #57 on: January 05, 2017, 04:20:27 AM »

My best guess at this point is that Donnelly loses to...maybe Luke Messer, and that Heller loses to..someone. Steven Horsford maybe?
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peterthlee
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« Reply #58 on: January 08, 2017, 07:27:17 AM »

Missouri safe D? Actually, for IndyRep, you once said that with McCaskill, MO will fall to R's hand.
It will be toss-up/tilt D at most.
As a democratic supporter, I'm eyeing for a safe D MO, but it is not happening unless Rep candidates implode severely...
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #59 on: January 10, 2017, 02:29:28 PM »

For the record, I think MO is Likely R.
Never overestimate the electorate.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #60 on: January 10, 2017, 03:52:58 PM »

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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #61 on: January 11, 2017, 03:04:45 PM »

I know its controversial opinion I have here but I do think think certain office holders will automatically lose just because I dislike them.

That being said MO-SEN 2018 is Lean R until proven other wise. Likely or Toss Up are not good ratings right now.
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windjammer
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« Reply #62 on: January 15, 2017, 07:53:37 AM »

I quite like this prediction.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #63 on: January 15, 2017, 07:20:38 PM »

I could settle with rating Wisconsin Lean D (Likely D was probably too much), but Toss-Up is going too far.
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peterthlee
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« Reply #64 on: January 16, 2017, 06:23:42 AM »
« Edited: March 10, 2017, 11:40:27 PM by peterthlee »

WILD GUESS:


Updated 11/3/2017 for Alabama by-election.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #65 on: January 16, 2017, 03:00:15 PM »
« Edited: January 16, 2017, 03:08:08 PM by ERM64man »

West Virginia: Tossup (considering Rahall got crushed but Justice is winning by double-digits, who the hell knows)

Justice will lose.
Jim Justice won relatively easily. Please stop making hateful comments about West Virginia.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #66 on: January 16, 2017, 11:03:18 PM »

Yes I agree with the above post in that the Midwest is very elastic.

Also God has told me that Claire McCaskill will win re-election.
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« Reply #67 on: February 22, 2017, 12:34:55 AM »

Depends on who is president. I expect Big Don to be in the White House, so Republicans will have some minor losses.

If Hilldog occupies the White House, the GOP will make gains.

Impressive.
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reidmill
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« Reply #68 on: February 22, 2017, 12:50:11 AM »

Yes I agree with the above post in that the Midwest is very elastic.

Also God has told me that Claire McCaskill will win re-election.

I also have an inkling that she'll manage to hold her seat.

Here's my map:

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The_Doctor
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« Reply #69 on: February 22, 2017, 12:29:29 PM »

My guess:


Rationale: Trump's approval ratings will be 45-48%. A lot of this means that Republican turnout will be relatively depressed compared to 2016. Additionally, let's go down the races. The economy will begin slowing down but I don't think it will be horribly crappy at this point.

Dem Holds

1. Ohio: Sherrod Brown is an avowed populist who fits the state well in that regard. He'll win even though Trump won by 8 points. Any other Democrat, I'd peg this as a possible GOP pickup.
2. Florida: Bill Nelson has always won handily in a General Election and is an inoffensive Democrat. Again, D win. Trump won FL by just 1-1.5% so it's not much of a shift to keep it Democratic.
3. Pennsylvania. Bob Casey will prevail. Again, narrow GOP win 2016. This is a two term Democratic Senator who has experience holding down Pennsylvania and won his last term by 6%. Also, he's from a political dynasty who is legend in Pennsylvania. He's also got the advantage of being the out party. Philadelphia + the suburbs will vote Democratic while GOP turnout in the rural areas will be slightly down compared to 2016.
4. Michigan: Debbie has been in power since 2000 and has forged a long time connection to Michigan voters. The state went Republican by just 10,000 votes. She'll be fine.
5. Montana: Jon Tester lost his major GOP opponent in Ryan Zinke, who is now Secretary of the Interior. Tester is a decent retail politician who won re-election even as Romney won the state. Without a presidential election, Tester can probably galvanize enough of his supporters to back him for another term, especially given Montana's reservoir of Democratic votes that exist (narrow 2008 win for McCain, the state's governor is a Democrat, etc).
5. Wisconsin. She's got a tough race, given how red Wisconsin has trended and she's a first term senator unlike Debbie Stabenow. She's also a gay woman and while that wasn't a huge issue in 2012, this could be a problem in 2018. The GOP has kept a presence in Wisconsin and Walker will be running for a third term. This is kind of a 52-47% Democratic win, I think. But I could see WI going GOP. We'll see what the national moods are.

GOP Holds

1. Arizona: Jeff Flake has staked himself out as a critic of Donald Trump and yet also has staked himself out as a libertarian conservative. I don't think Arizona's ready to make the big jump to electing a Democratic Senator - yet. Flake holds on by a similar 50-45% to his 2012 win.
2. Nevada: Heller has a unparalleled ability to survive in rough terrain. He beat the Reid machine in 2012 and even as Obama won Nevada by six points, Heller has survived. Nevertheless, this is one of the races I'm least sure about. But I think Heller will be able to squeak it out. 
3. Texas. Not ready to be Atlas Red, yet. Cruz will win renomination and the General.

GOP pickups

1. West Virginia: The state's been trending hard right and while I expect it to backtrack to the left in the 2020s as the Bernie Sanders Democrats come to power, I think that the current trends suggest that West Virginians will junk Manchin. Nevertheless, could see Wisconsin sending Baldwin home and keeping Manchin. Manchin is the most skilled Democratic pol in a red state.
2. Missouri. Claire McCaskill has a major target on her back. She was due to lose in 2012 but eked out a win because of Akin. I don't think that Missouri will be that forgiving this time around.
3. Indiana: Same deal as MO. The GOP will be more careful to not nominate a Murdoch. Trump also won the state by 20 points.
4. North Dakota. See Indiana and Missouri and Wisconsin. Heitkamp is a first term senator who won by 1 point in a red state and expect the state to boot her. She's also lost a race here in North Dakota, suggesting vulnerability.

so, buckets - the deep Republican states (Atlas blue) will elect GOP senators, swing and lean Dem states will elect Dem Senators.

GOP gains +4 even as they lose 4-10 seats in the House. The major lesson is that the polarization continues apace as GOP states start moving more in line and Democratic states remain committed to the Dem Party and the swing states go to the party out of power. Don't think there will be a scandal big enough for Trump voters to stay home in 2018 (think that's more after 2018).
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #70 on: February 22, 2017, 06:46:27 PM »
« Edited: February 22, 2017, 07:12:16 PM by TD »

TD... these are quite plausible predictions. Are you from North Dakota?

Whoops, bad syntax. Nope, Northeast, not North Dakota. Thanks though:)

Also can anyone set up a 2018 gubernatorial election predictions thread?
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Xing
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« Reply #71 on: February 23, 2017, 06:52:53 PM »

My prediction right now is identical to TD's, except with Heller losing.
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JustinTimeCuber
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« Reply #72 on: February 23, 2017, 09:56:50 PM »

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Dr. MB
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« Reply #73 on: February 25, 2017, 08:03:04 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2017, 08:10:20 PM by MB298 »

Alabama: Safe R
Arizona: Tossup
California: Safe D
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Lean D
Hawaii: Safe D
Indiana: Tossup
Maine: Likely I
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Likely D
Michigan: Lean D
Minnesota: Lean D
Mississippi: Safe R
Missouri: Tossup
Montana: Tossup
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Tossup
New Jersey: Lean D
New Mexico: Likely D
New York: Safe D
North Dakota: Tossup
Ohio: Tossup
Pennsylvania: Tossup
Rhode Island: Safe D
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Likely R
Utah: Likely R (Depends on whether 3rd party candidate emerges)
Vermont: Safe I (unless Bernie runs as a Democrat)
Virginia: Likely D
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Likely D
Wisconsin: Lean D
Wyoming: Safe R
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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Posts: 17,665
United States


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« Reply #74 on: February 25, 2017, 08:25:55 PM »

GOP picks up IN, ND and MO

Dems gain NV

R+2 for a 54-44 Senate
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