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| | |-+  2018 Senatorial Elections
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Author Topic: 2018 Senatorial Elections  (Read 22862 times)
Da-Jon
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« Reply #100 on: April 01, 2017, 06:24:21 pm »
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dream map
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PNM
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« Reply #101 on: April 01, 2017, 06:49:01 pm »
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If his approvals just stay stable, people like Donnelly and McCaskill actually have a chance.

I want to see polling and actual candidates announce, but I'm almost inclined to agree. What exactly is the argument to throw out a Democratic Senator again in places like FL, MI, WI, PA, and OH given the gross incompetence surrounding Trump and the GOP now?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #102 on: April 01, 2017, 08:22:50 pm »
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If his approvals just stay stable, people like Donnelly and McCaskill actually have a chance.

I want to see polling and actual candidates announce, but I'm almost inclined to agree. What exactly is the argument to throw out a Democratic Senator again in places like FL, MI, WI, PA, and OH given the gross incompetence surrounding Trump and the GOP now?

Because polarization might still be a thing? We don't even know what his numbers will look like in 2018, but I highly doubt that all Republican-leaning Independents and rural voters in many of these red states will suddenly decide to vote for a Democrat in a federal race. There are probably a lot of Republicans who disapprove of Trump but are still going to vote Republican. Also, candidate quality matters - if you're a terrible fit for your state or anonymous, incumbency isn't going to save you.
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« Reply #103 on: April 01, 2017, 08:31:10 pm »
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If his approvals just stay stable, people like Donnelly and McCaskill actually have a chance.

I want to see polling and actual candidates announce, but I'm almost inclined to agree. What exactly is the argument to throw out a Democratic Senator again in places like FL, MI, WI, PA, and OH given the gross incompetence surrounding Trump and the GOP now?

Because polarization might still be a thing? We don't even know what his numbers will look like in 2018, but I highly doubt that all Republican-leaning Independents and rural voters in many of these red states will suddenly decide to vote for a Democrat in a federal race. There are probably a lot of Republicans who disapprove of Trump but are still going to vote Republican. Also, candidate quality matters - if you're a terrible fit for your state or anonymous, incumbency isn't going to save you.

I thought it was clear that the latter part of my paragraph was referring to MI, PA, FL, WI and OH (to a lesser extent). The environement is simply not suitable for ousting a non-offensive Dem incumbent in those states right now.
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« Reply #104 on: April 01, 2017, 08:38:22 pm »
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If his approvals just stay stable, people like Donnelly and McCaskill actually have a chance.

I want to see polling and actual candidates announce, but I'm almost inclined to agree. What exactly is the argument to throw out a Democratic Senator again in places like FL, MI, WI, PA, and OH given the gross incompetence surrounding Trump and the GOP now?

Because polarization might still be a thing? We don't even know what his numbers will look like in 2018, but I highly doubt that all Republican-leaning Independents and rural voters in many of these red states will suddenly decide to vote for a Democrat in a federal race. There are probably a lot of Republicans who disapprove of Trump but are still going to vote Republican. Also, candidate quality matters - if you're a terrible fit for your state or anonymous, incumbency isn't going to save you.

I thought it was clear that the latter part of my paragraph was referring to MI, PA, FL, WI and OH (to a lesser extent). The environement is simply not suitable for ousting a non-offensive Dem incumbent in those states right now.

Well, you said that you "almost" agreed with Devout Centrist, so I was basing it off that. But yeah, it will be an interesting election for sure. Of course the Democrats need to get their act together, find a way to appeal to those voters and not take any of these races for granted because "Trump midterm". But not having Hillary Clinton on the ballot really should help them big time.
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Jimmie
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« Reply #105 on: April 02, 2017, 01:07:46 am »
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my wild guess is that Democrats will hold on to all their seats  and will pick up NV (because hillary won nevada last year).. arizona (because hillary almost won AZ last year) and Texas (because cruz is hated).

#analysis
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Da-Jon
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« Reply #106 on: April 02, 2017, 05:17:07 pm »
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dream map



If his approvals just stay stable, people like Donnelly and McCaskill actually have a chance.

I want to see polling and actual candidates announce, but I'm almost inclined to agree. What exactly is the argument to throw out a Democratic Senator again in places like FL, MI, WI, PA, and OH given the gross incompetence surrounding Trump and the GOP now?

Because polarization might still be a thing? We don't even know what his numbers will look like in 2018, but I highly doubt that all Republican-leaning Independents and rural voters in many of these red states will suddenly decide to vote for a Democrat in a federal race. There are probably a lot of Republicans who disapprove of Trump but are still going to vote Republican. Also, candidate quality matters - if you're a terrible fit for your state or anonymous, incumbency isn't going to save you.

Yes, these are rural areas aside from IN, who was the most hostile towards Clinton, Tester, Manchin and McCaskill have high approvals for incumbants

As for the GOP incumbants Flake, Heller and Cruz, the Latino corridor of IL,CA, CO, NV, NM, NY and NJ all voted for Clinton in 2016 and will be friendly again for reapportionment in 2020 eventhough, the new map won't take effect until latter.

And AZ is a Clinton friendly state. TX is a special case, but a Latino sunbelt state.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2017, 05:18:47 pm by Da-Jon »Logged
Pericles
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« Reply #107 on: April 16, 2017, 03:48:05 am »
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Red is Democrat, blue is Republican and green is tossup. For the purposes of this scenario, Angus King and Bernie Sanders will be ranked as Democrats.


Arizona may be more Democratic than thought not just because of its D trend but also that Kelli Ward could well be the GOP nominee(she leads in the polls over Flake and if DeWitt is running he wins). McCaskill, Donnelly and Heitkamp are vulnerable, I'd expect at least one of them to lose, but all three have an ability to win in GOP states and their states have shown a willingness to elect Democrats. Nevada's race looks like a prime pickup for the Democrats given Hispanic opposition to Trump and that Heller only won by 1% in 2012.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2017, 03:54:08 am by Pericles »Logged

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