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« Reply #100 on: April 01, 2017, 08:38:22 pm »
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If his approvals just stay stable, people like Donnelly and McCaskill actually have a chance.

I want to see polling and actual candidates announce, but I'm almost inclined to agree. What exactly is the argument to throw out a Democratic Senator again in places like FL, MI, WI, PA, and OH given the gross incompetence surrounding Trump and the GOP now?

Because polarization might still be a thing? We don't even know what his numbers will look like in 2018, but I highly doubt that all Republican-leaning Independents and rural voters in many of these red states will suddenly decide to vote for a Democrat in a federal race. There are probably a lot of Republicans who disapprove of Trump but are still going to vote Republican. Also, candidate quality matters - if you're a terrible fit for your state or anonymous, incumbency isn't going to save you.

I thought it was clear that the latter part of my paragraph was referring to MI, PA, FL, WI and OH (to a lesser extent). The environement is simply not suitable for ousting a non-offensive Dem incumbent in those states right now.

Well, you said that you "almost" agreed with Devout Centrist, so I was basing it off that. But yeah, it will be an interesting election for sure. Of course the Democrats need to get their act together, find a way to appeal to those voters and not take any of these races for granted because "Trump midterm". But not having Hillary Clinton on the ballot really should help them big time.
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« Reply #101 on: April 02, 2017, 01:07:46 am »
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my wild guess is that Democrats will hold on to all their seats  and will pick up NV (because hillary won nevada last year).. arizona (because hillary almost won AZ last year) and Texas (because cruz is hated).

#analysis
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« Reply #102 on: April 02, 2017, 05:17:07 pm »
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dream map



If his approvals just stay stable, people like Donnelly and McCaskill actually have a chance.

I want to see polling and actual candidates announce, but I'm almost inclined to agree. What exactly is the argument to throw out a Democratic Senator again in places like FL, MI, WI, PA, and OH given the gross incompetence surrounding Trump and the GOP now?

Because polarization might still be a thing? We don't even know what his numbers will look like in 2018, but I highly doubt that all Republican-leaning Independents and rural voters in many of these red states will suddenly decide to vote for a Democrat in a federal race. There are probably a lot of Republicans who disapprove of Trump but are still going to vote Republican. Also, candidate quality matters - if you're a terrible fit for your state or anonymous, incumbency isn't going to save you.

Yes, these are rural areas aside from IN, who was the most hostile towards Clinton, Tester, Manchin and McCaskill have high approvals for incumbants

As for the GOP incumbants Flake, Heller and Cruz, the Latino corridor of IL,CA, CO, NV, NM, NY and NJ all voted for Clinton in 2016 and will be friendly again for reapportionment in 2020 eventhough, the new map won't take effect until latter.

And AZ is a Clinton friendly state. TX is a special case, but a Latino sunbelt state.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2017, 05:18:47 pm by Da-Jon »Logged
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« Reply #103 on: April 16, 2017, 03:48:05 am »
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Red is Democrat, blue is Republican and green is tossup. For the purposes of this scenario, Angus King and Bernie Sanders will be ranked as Democrats.


Arizona may be more Democratic than thought not just because of its D trend but also that Kelli Ward could well be the GOP nominee(she leads in the polls over Flake and if DeWitt is running he wins). McCaskill, Donnelly and Heitkamp are vulnerable, I'd expect at least one of them to lose, but all three have an ability to win in GOP states and their states have shown a willingness to elect Democrats. Nevada's race looks like a prime pickup for the Democrats given Hispanic opposition to Trump and that Heller only won by 1% in 2012.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2017, 03:54:08 am by Pericles »Logged

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« Reply #104 on: May 05, 2017, 03:23:01 am »
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my wild guess is that Democrats will hold on to all their seats  and will pick up NV (because hillary won nevada last year).. arizona (because hillary almost won AZ last year) and Texas (because cruz is hated).

#analysis
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« Reply #105 on: May 07, 2017, 11:41:53 pm »
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my wild guess is that Democrats will hold on to all their seats  and will pick up NV (because hillary won nevada last year).. arizona (because hillary almost won AZ last year) and Texas (because cruz is hated).

#analysis
You're joking, right? Tongue

This must be a joke. TX is safe R on a good day for Dems. Cruz isn't hated here, either. He's the kind of Republican that dominates here. Every statewide elected official here except for John Cornyn is as far right as Cruz.
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« Reply #106 on: May 18, 2017, 04:09:46 am »
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Rationale: Trump's approval ratings will be 45-48%.
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« Reply #107 on: May 21, 2017, 10:05:44 am »
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dream map



This scenario is more possible now, since Trump effect will affect the races 2017 and 2018; but this is my dream map with Dems sweeping the House and Govs mansions and impeachment is underway.
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« Reply #108 on: May 21, 2017, 11:57:30 am »
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AZ: Ward +5
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« Reply #109 on: May 21, 2017, 03:41:05 pm »
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Dems if they run a decent candidate can win a competetive race against either Ward or Flake
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« Reply #110 on: May 22, 2017, 08:42:04 pm »
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As of now...

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« Reply #111 on: May 22, 2017, 11:17:07 pm »
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AZ: Ward +5


If Republicans are dumb enough to nominate Ward, they will be Akin-ing that seat away, and it could very well damage the entire Republican statewide ticket downballot like Akin's implosion did.
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« Reply #112 on: May 23, 2017, 08:44:02 pm »
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As of now...






In an anti Trump environment McCaskill will win
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« Reply #113 on: May 31, 2017, 04:16:38 pm »
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As of now...


Is Maine a gain for Dems or King being reelected?
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« Reply #114 on: June 09, 2017, 09:08:21 pm »
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Apologies, but what tool are y'all using to make predictions?  I can't find it and can't even find a FAQ to help.
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« Reply #115 on: June 09, 2017, 09:29:18 pm »
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Is Maine a gain for Dems or King being reelected?

King being reelected.

Apologies, but what tool are y'all using to make predictions?  I can't find it and can't even find a FAQ to help.

http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php
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« Reply #116 on: June 09, 2017, 11:46:23 pm »
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Updated prediction:



It's getting harder and harder for me to see a way that "DEMOCRATIC OBSTRUCTIONISM!" is going to be a winning argument to unseat Democratic Senators in a year where Trump will very likely be mired in the mid-30's (or lower)

Also, Heller's support for a Medicaid phase-out is really idiotic and could probably sink his reelection.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2017, 01:05:53 am by PNM »Logged
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« Reply #117 on: June 11, 2017, 01:42:38 pm »
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Assuming nothing crazy happens, (though in the age of Trump, you never know) here's what I think.



Among the safe Ds and safe Rs, there are a few I'm gonna put a question mark next to. The first is Alabama's special election in November (I know it's not a 2018 election, but I'm putting it here anyway). Some primary polls suggest that Roy Moore might become the nominee, and for anyone familiar with Alabama politics, this guy brings disaster with him everywhere. If he gets the nomination, there isn't an 100% guarantee that he'd win a general. He could become the Republican version  of Martha Coakley. Minnesota deserves a note because Trump nearly won it, but Klobuchar is quite popular. I know this sounds a bit like flawed thinking, but there's a very slight chance Cardin in Maryland isn't 100% safe. He hasn't announced he's gonna run for reelection, a popular Republican Governor (Hogan) is up for reelection, and Maryland hasn't been the kind of state that does a lot of ticket splitting. Hogan's coattails could overwhelm Cardin (or vice-versa) or another Democrat if Cardin retires.

Also, Bob Menendez has a corruption scandal going on, and is scheduled to appear in court in September, so he's not a 100% guarantee for reelection. I wish a competent Democrat would just primary him.
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« Reply #118 on: June 17, 2017, 10:44:29 pm »
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My early prediction.

Key races:
NV: Heller loses by 7 or so.
AZ: Flake holds by 5 (against whoever) in the general, wins the primary fairly comfortably.
UT: Romney and McMullin sit out, Hatch easily wins both the primary and general.
MT: Rosendale wins by 5, Olszewski by 2, anyone else (unlikely) loses by 4.
ND: Heitkamp wins by 8 against Cramer, 14 against Campbell, by 20 against Becker or Berg.
MN: Klobuchar wins by 12, as she tanks in MN-01, 06, and 07.
WI: Fitzgerald, Kleefisch or Hovde beat Baldwin by 1, any other nominee (far more likely) loses by 6.
MI: Robert Young, Randy Richardville, or Dan Benishek lose by 1 or 2, anyone else falls by 15 or more.
TX: Cruz wins by 11 or more despite all the hype.
FL: Scott pulls the unthinkable and wins by 1 after catching Nelson sleepwalking.
MO: Wagner wins by 12 (or Hawley by 4).
IN: Donnelly loses by 14 (probably more than O'Rourke) as the race is nationalized and Pence does a lot to help Messer (who'll probably win the primary).
OH: Mandel wins by 5 or 6 after easily winning the primary.
WV: Manchin loses by 11 against Jenkins (who should easily win his primary).
PA: Casey should win by 10 or so, but the GOP should get a good wave insurance candidate anyway.
NJ: Nothing to see, NJ voters don't care about corruption, they think it's no big deal.
ME: Even if RCV is struck down, King should be fine and win with room to breathe.

I'm assuming Trump's approval is -1 or 2 as Republicans "come home" and polarization remains historically high. I could very well be way off.
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« Reply #119 on: June 18, 2017, 11:28:41 am »
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Okay I have not been posting as much lately because there really is not a whole lot to post right now.

The only real confident prediction that I can make at this time is that Democrats will gains seats in the House of Representatives. I can not really put a number on it but it could be as low as eight if there is not a huge backlash to Trump or as high as like 40 to 50 if voters are not feeling partisan in 2018, Trump is very unpopular and a bunch of R PVI +5 to +10 districts fall.

As far as the US Senate elections a lot of these Democratic incumbents are remnants of the past. We saw how they all fell very quickly in 2010 and 2014. Mark Pryor was a popular remnant of the past but fell by a surprisingly large margin. 2012 was a bit different for Senate Democrats even remnants of the past because of luck and the fact that a Democrat president was not assured in the minds of many people. Many voters were quite convinced Romney would win and the polls were oversampling Democrats. We saw how that went.

If anything polls underestimated Democrats that year. That is something to consider before assuming polling in 2018 will underestimate Republicans.

Now we saw how these remnants of the past went during a Democratic administration, it will be interesting to see how it goes under Donald Trump. Donald Trump is too unpopular at this present time for a repeat of 2002 to occur.  Even in 2002, Democrats did not do that bad locally and House and Senate gains were limited even with favorable redistricting for the GOP and that was the first cycle that the redistricting took place.

Also even if Trump is popular in certain states it is no guarantee that the Democratic incumbents will fall down.  Obama was popular in Illinois in 2010 and 2014 and Republicans won two major offices those years. We saw Kirk go down in a year with entirely different circumstances and it is too early to see if Rauner is DOA in the Governor's contest next year but a state's lean does not dictate how a state will vote during midterms even if the President is popular in that specific state.


Manchin thrived in West Virginia during the tea party wave and won by a large margin in 2012. His polling has shown him as popular and West Virginia Democrats to have some success statewide to this day. Even if Jenkins is from the key part of the state for Democrats to win West Virginia we can not assume that he will going to defeat Manchin. Manchin has the clear cross over appeal but he could be taken down if 2018 becomes quite a Republican year.

Heitkamp was elected while her state was very hostile to the Democratic party and has become quite popular. Only thing that could defeat her is sheer partisan.

Sherrod Brown is quite the progressive but if his opponent is Mandel I can argue that Brown would be favored to win re-election as rematches can often Falter. I have seen this happen too many times. Not sure why the gop is set on Mandel for their nominee. They probably have a dozen other candidates who could be stronger.

We argue about McCaskill a lot but I argue that I do not think it is in the cards for her to lose by more than single digits in the current climate for 2018. I could even see her winning. She seems to be doing the right things.. she is exiting the liberal base but she is not bashing Trump voters. She only criticizes GOP policies. There is a difference. Despite assertions on this site her progressive punch score is a "D".

Donnelly is very anonymous. Most voters in Indiana probably do not actively remember his name. His path to victory could be managing to create a positive image to voters now as he is so unknown to many voters. Unlike McCaskill he has that option. On the other hand if Donnelly does not invent a positive image to voters and reintroduces himself to voters he could end up losing by a 19 point margin. What would kill him is if voters go to the polls and are like "Who is this guy?" and vote Republican by default.

The rest of the races I am not very familiar with enough to comment.
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« Reply #120 on: June 18, 2017, 01:08:23 pm »
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Ordinarily, 2018 would be a reverse of the 2006 Democratic wave.. except that the Republican President will be extremely unpopular. The only question is whether the 2018 election will be free and fair.

Democrats have no real chance of winning a majority. Even picking up Arizona and Nevada while holding what they now have,  they would get an effective 50-50 split of the Senate with the VP as the tie-breaker... unless some Republican defects from the Party or dies and creates a vulnerable seat in a state that would likely vote for a Democratic nominee for a Senate seat in a Democratic-leaning state. 

It is telling that a poll that shows Trump approval at 62% in West Virginia suggests that Joe Manchin has an excellent chance of winning re-election. Indiana and Missouri are even less supportive of Republicans.
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« Reply #121 on: June 18, 2017, 01:09:43 pm »
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Ordinarily, 2018 would be a reverse of the 2006 Democratic wave.. except that the Republican President will be extremely unpopular. The only question is whether the 2018 election will be free and fair.

Democrats have no real chance of winning a majority. Even picking up Arizona and Nevada while holding what they now have,  they would get an effective 50-50 split of the Senate with the VP as the tie-breaker... unless some Republican defects from the Party or dies and creates a vulnerable seat in a state that would likely vote for a Democratic nominee for a Senate seat in a Democratic-leaning state. 

It is telling that a poll that shows Trump approval at 62% in West Virginia suggests that Joe Manchin has an excellent chance of winning re-election. Indiana and Missouri are even less supportive of Republicans.
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« Reply #122 on: June 21, 2017, 03:02:20 pm »
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My early prediction.


Unsurprisingly, I agree with you 100%. I know this looks like a really Republican-friendly prediction, but it's not that far-fetched. The only "bold" prediction on this map is FL.

My early prediction, including the obvious comments and #hottakes:

Democratic gains

NV (Lean D): Heller is a weak incumbent in a state trending away from his party. He only barely eked out a win in 2012 because the Democrats nominated Shelley Berkley. Heller won't get that lucky this time, and blue states really don't split their tickets anymore or care whether the Republican candidate is an incumbent or not.  D+1, Heller loses by 4 or 5 points. (If he actually distances himself from Trump like Kirk and Ayotte, expect something like a 8- to 10-point loss here.)

Republican gains

IN (Likely R): I don't see how Donnelly wins. The Republicans running here are probably a bit overrated, but given this astonishingly high level of polarization even someone like Messer should be able to win fairly easily. R+1, Donnelly loses by 12 points to Messer or something like 8-10 points to Rokita.

MO (Likely R): This race has been discussed ad nauseam, so any further comments are probably unnecessary. The only thing worth pointing out is that I believe Wagner would do much better in MO-02 and the more suburban areas in the general than Hawley, but maybe she'd do slightly worse than Hawley in the rural areas. Anyway, R+1, Wagner wins by 13 points, Hawley by 10 points. FTR, right now I believe Hawley will be the nominee.

MT (Tossup): While most Democrats think that Tester is heavily favored, I think the GOP can definitely win here. Both Rosendale and Olszewski would be fairly good candidates IMO, and I could also see Troy Downing doing well if he actually wins the nomination (doubtful, but he's kind of a wildcard). Democrats creating an aura of inevitability around Tester doesn't help them either, honestly. MT also has a fairly high Republican floor, and Eastern MT likely won't be as friendly to Tester next year as it was in 2012.  R+1, Rosendale wins by 6 and Olszewski by 4 or 5.

WV (Tossup): This race is tough to predict, and Jenkins might be a bit overrated. I think WV is a Tossup, but if Trump can get his supporters out in record numbers on election day (and I assume he'll be campaigning for Rs here), I think this seat will flip. R+1, Jenkins wins by 8 or 9 or so. (I could totally see Manchin winning as well, though)

OH (Tilt R): Brown is in big trouble, obviously. OH has an incredibly high Republican floor, especially in midterm years. Brown can win if he plays his cards right, but in the end I think some combination of Mandel doing better than expected in the Republican suburbs, crushing it in the traditionally Republican rural areas and outperforming his 2012 showing in the WWC areas by quite a bit should put him over the top. R+1, Mandel wins by 6 or 7.

FL (Tossup): Scott winning here is my bold prediction. Jimmie hinted at this already, I think Nelson is a remnant of the past and might be out of step with the times and his electorate, if you know what I mean. I know polls are showing a Nelson landslide right now, but I wouldn't underestimate Scott (especially if polling underestimates Republican support among White suburbanites and Working-class "Trumpist" voters again). R+1, Scott barely ekes it out by 1 or less. If Morgan is the Democratic nominee for governor, Scott might actually do better than if Graham wins the D primary.

Democratic holds

WI (Lean D): Baldwin is a good fit for swingy WI and isn't dumb enough to move to the center to win reelection. If she loses, it will be a sign that WI is moving away from the Democrats at a very fast pace. Unless someone like Hovde runs, I think she'll do very well in WI-03 and WI-07, and that should be enough, even if Walker wins reelection. D Hold, Baldwin wins by 4 or 5 points.

MI (Lean D): Stabenow should be fine, but like I've said several times before... 85% chance this race is a blowout and 15% chance it goes down to the wire. No in between. Right now, I assume the former will happen, but the race could get interesting if the GOP nominates the right candidate (and not just a generic conservative Republican).D Hold, Stabenow wins by 12 points.

ND (Lean D): I moved this from Likely to Lean D today. I still think Heitkamp is heavily favored to win, but you never know. Pretty sure that this seat only flips after IN, MO, MT, WV, FL, OH and maybe WI or MI, though. D Hold, Heitkamp beats Cramer by 5, Campbell by 12, Becker by 16 and Berg by 22. If she can win in 2018, this seat is hers for as long as she wants it.

PA (Likely D): Casey underperformed in 2012, but he should be fine in 2018. Pennsylvania is still fairly Democratic downballot. I agree that the GOP should put up a good wave insurance candidate, though. D Hold, Casey wins by 8 points.

ME (Likely D): King should be fine, but he will probably lose a few counties in ME-02 this time around. D Hold, King wins by 9.

Republican holds

AZ (Likely R): Flake is a bit underestimated IMO. I think he wins the primary much easier than expected and then goes on to win the general by 7 or so. Synema is - just like Kirkpatrick - way overrated (I actually think Carmona might be the strongest Democrat). R Hold.

TX (Likely R): O'Rourke will make it closer than it should be, but I think Cruz wins by 9 on election day, give or take 1 or 2 points. Things could get really ugly for Cruz in 2024, though. R Hold.

UT (Likely R): I am a bit worried about this race, but Hatch will probably be fine in the end. R Hold.
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« Reply #123 on: June 21, 2017, 03:24:21 pm »
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My early prediction.


Unsurprisingly, I agree with you 100%. I know this looks like a really Republican-friendly prediction, but it's not that far-fetched. The only "bold" prediction on this map is FL.

My early prediction, including the obvious comments and #hottakes:

Democratic gains

NV (Lean D): Heller is a weak incumbent in a state trending away from his party. He only barely eked out a win in 2012 because the Democrats nominated Shelley Berkley. Heller won't get that lucky this time, and blue states really don't split their tickets anymore or care whether the Republican candidate is an incumbent or not.  D+1, Heller loses by 4 or 5 points. (If he actually distances himself from Trump like Kirk and Ayotte, expect something like a 8- to 10-point loss here.)

Republican gains

IN (Likely R): I don't see how Donnelly wins. The Republicans running here are probably a bit overrated, but given this astonishingly high level of polarization even someone like Messer should be able to win fairly easily. R+1, Donnelly loses by 12 points to Messer or something like 8-10 points to Rokita.

MO (Likely R): This race has been discussed ad nauseam, so any further comments are probably unnecessary. The only thing worth pointing out is that I believe Wagner would do much better in MO-02 and the more suburban areas in the general than Hawley, but maybe she'd do slightly worse than Hawley in the rural areas. Anyway, R+1, Wagner wins by 13 points, Hawley by 10 points. FTR, right now I believe Hawley will be the nominee.

MT (Tossup): While most Democrats think that Tester is heavily favored, I think the GOP can definitely win here. Both Rosendale and Olszewski would be fairly good candidates IMO, and I could also see Troy Downing doing well if he actually wins the nomination (doubtful, but he's kind of a wildcard). Democrats creating an aura of inevitability around Tester doesn't help them either, honestly. MT also has a fairly high Republican floor, and Eastern MT likely won't be as friendly to Tester next year as it was in 2012.  R+1, Rosendale wins by 6 and Olszewski by 4 or 5.

WV (Tossup): This race is tough to predict, and Jenkins might be a bit overrated. I think WV is a Tossup, but if Trump can get his supporters out in record numbers on election day (and I assume he'll be campaigning for Rs here), I think this seat will flip. R+1, Jenkins wins by 8 or 9 or so. (I could totally see Manchin winning as well, though)

OH (Tilt R): Brown is in big trouble, obviously. OH has an incredibly high Republican floor, especially in midterm years. Brown can win if he plays his cards right, but in the end I think some combination of Mandel doing better than expected in the Republican suburbs, crushing it in the traditionally Republican rural areas and outperforming his 2012 showing in the WWC areas by quite a bit should put him over the top. R+1, Mandel wins by 6 or 7.

FL (Tossup): Scott winning here is my bold prediction. Jimmie hinted at this already, I think Nelson is a remnant of the past and might be out of step with the times and his electorate, if you know what I mean. I know polls are showing a Nelson landslide right now, but I wouldn't underestimate Scott (especially if polling underestimates Republican support among White suburbanites and Working-class "Trumpist" voters again). R+1, Scott barely ekes it out by 1 or less. If Morgan is the Democratic nominee for governor, Scott might actually do better than if Graham wins the D primary.

Democratic holds

WI (Lean D): Baldwin is a good fit for swingy WI and isn't dumb enough to move to the center to win reelection. If she loses, it will be a sign that WI is moving away from the Democrats at a very fast pace. Unless someone like Hovde runs, I think she'll do very well in WI-03 and WI-07, and that should be enough, even if Walker wins reelection. D Hold, Baldwin wins by 4 or 5 points.

MI (Lean D): Stabenow should be fine, but like I've said several times before... 85% chance this race is a blowout and 15% chance it goes down to the wire. No in between. Right now, I assume the former will happen, but the race could get interesting if the GOP nominates the right candidate (and not just a generic conservative Republican).D Hold, Stabenow wins by 12 points.

ND (Lean D): I moved this from Likely to Lean D today. I still think Heitkamp is heavily favored to win, but you never know. Pretty sure that this seat only flips after IN, MO, MT, WV, FL, OH and maybe WI or MI, though. D Hold, Heitkamp beats Cramer by 5, Campbell by 12, Becker by 16 and Berg by 22. If she can win in 2018, this seat is hers for as long as she wants it.

PA (Likely D): Casey underperformed in 2012, but he should be fine in 2018. Pennsylvania is still fairly Democratic downballot. I agree that the GOP should put up a good wave insurance candidate, though. D Hold, Casey wins by 8 points.

ME (Likely D): King should be fine, but he will probably lose a few counties in ME-02 this time around. D Hold, King wins by 9.

Republican holds

AZ (Likely R): Flake is a bit underestimated IMO. I think he wins the primary much easier than expected and then goes on to win the general by 7 or so. Synema is - just like Kirkpatrick - way overrated (I actually think Carmona might be the strongest Democrat). R Hold.

TX (Likely R): O'Rourke will make it closer than it should be, but I think Cruz wins by 9 on election day, give or take 1 or 2 points. Things could get really ugly for Cruz in 2024, though. R Hold.

UT (Likely R): I am a bit worried about this race, but Hatch will probably be fine in the end. R Hold.

Just one question here, about WI.  I assume you're saying Hovde would be a good candidate, why exactly?
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2017:

German Federal Election:  FDP,AFD,CDU
NJ-Gov:  Kim Guadagno (R)
VA-Gov:  Ed Gillespie (R)

2018:
IL-Gov:  Bruce Rauner (R)
MA-Gov:  Charlie Baker (R)
MD-Gov:  Larry Hogan (R)
VT-Gov:  Phil Scott (R)
OH-Sen:  Josh Mandel (R)
OH-Gov:  Mike DeWine (R)
FL-Gov:  Adam Putnam (R)
WI-Gov:  Scott Walker (R)
NV-Gov:  Adam Laxalt (R)
MI-Gov:  Bill Schuette (R)
MO-Sen:  Josh Hawley (R)
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« Reply #124 on: June 21, 2017, 04:26:21 pm »
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My early prediction.


Unsurprisingly, I agree with you 100%. I know this looks like a really Republican-friendly prediction, but it's not that far-fetched. The only "bold" prediction on this map is FL.

My early prediction, including the obvious comments and #hottakes:

Democratic gains

NV (Lean D): Heller is a weak incumbent in a state trending away from his party. He only barely eked out a win in 2012 because the Democrats nominated Shelley Berkley. Heller won't get that lucky this time, and blue states really don't split their tickets anymore or care whether the Republican candidate is an incumbent or not.  D+1, Heller loses by 4 or 5 points. (If he actually distances himself from Trump like Kirk and Ayotte, expect something like a 8- to 10-point loss here.)

Republican gains

IN (Likely R): I don't see how Donnelly wins. The Republicans running here are probably a bit overrated, but given this astonishingly high level of polarization even someone like Messer should be able to win fairly easily. R+1, Donnelly loses by 12 points to Messer or something like 8-10 points to Rokita.

MO (Likely R): This race has been discussed ad nauseam, so any further comments are probably unnecessary. The only thing worth pointing out is that I believe Wagner would do much better in MO-02 and the more suburban areas in the general than Hawley, but maybe she'd do slightly worse than Hawley in the rural areas. Anyway, R+1, Wagner wins by 13 points, Hawley by 10 points. FTR, right now I believe Hawley will be the nominee.

MT (Tossup): While most Democrats think that Tester is heavily favored, I think the GOP can definitely win here. Both Rosendale and Olszewski would be fairly good candidates IMO, and I could also see Troy Downing doing well if he actually wins the nomination (doubtful, but he's kind of a wildcard). Democrats creating an aura of inevitability around Tester doesn't help them either, honestly. MT also has a fairly high Republican floor, and Eastern MT likely won't be as friendly to Tester next year as it was in 2012.  R+1, Rosendale wins by 6 and Olszewski by 4 or 5.

WV (Tossup): This race is tough to predict, and Jenkins might be a bit overrated. I think WV is a Tossup, but if Trump can get his supporters out in record numbers on election day (and I assume he'll be campaigning for Rs here), I think this seat will flip. R+1, Jenkins wins by 8 or 9 or so. (I could totally see Manchin winning as well, though)

OH (Tilt R): Brown is in big trouble, obviously. OH has an incredibly high Republican floor, especially in midterm years. Brown can win if he plays his cards right, but in the end I think some combination of Mandel doing better than expected in the Republican suburbs, crushing it in the traditionally Republican rural areas and outperforming his 2012 showing in the WWC areas by quite a bit should put him over the top. R+1, Mandel wins by 6 or 7.

FL (Tossup): Scott winning here is my bold prediction. Jimmie hinted at this already, I think Nelson is a remnant of the past and might be out of step with the times and his electorate, if you know what I mean. I know polls are showing a Nelson landslide right now, but I wouldn't underestimate Scott (especially if polling underestimates Republican support among White suburbanites and Working-class "Trumpist" voters again). R+1, Scott barely ekes it out by 1 or less. If Morgan is the Democratic nominee for governor, Scott might actually do better than if Graham wins the D primary.

Democratic holds

WI (Lean D): Baldwin is a good fit for swingy WI and isn't dumb enough to move to the center to win reelection. If she loses, it will be a sign that WI is moving away from the Democrats at a very fast pace. Unless someone like Hovde runs, I think she'll do very well in WI-03 and WI-07, and that should be enough, even if Walker wins reelection. D Hold, Baldwin wins by 4 or 5 points.

MI (Lean D): Stabenow should be fine, but like I've said several times before... 85% chance this race is a blowout and 15% chance it goes down to the wire. No in between. Right now, I assume the former will happen, but the race could get interesting if the GOP nominates the right candidate (and not just a generic conservative Republican).D Hold, Stabenow wins by 12 points.

ND (Lean D): I moved this from Likely to Lean D today. I still think Heitkamp is heavily favored to win, but you never know. Pretty sure that this seat only flips after IN, MO, MT, WV, FL, OH and maybe WI or MI, though. D Hold, Heitkamp beats Cramer by 5, Campbell by 12, Becker by 16 and Berg by 22. If she can win in 2018, this seat is hers for as long as she wants it.

PA (Likely D): Casey underperformed in 2012, but he should be fine in 2018. Pennsylvania is still fairly Democratic downballot. I agree that the GOP should put up a good wave insurance candidate, though. D Hold, Casey wins by 8 points.

ME (Likely D): King should be fine, but he will probably lose a few counties in ME-02 this time around. D Hold, King wins by 9.

Republican holds

AZ (Likely R): Flake is a bit underestimated IMO. I think he wins the primary much easier than expected and then goes on to win the general by 7 or so. Synema is - just like Kirkpatrick - way overrated (I actually think Carmona might be the strongest Democrat). R Hold.

TX (Likely R): O'Rourke will make it closer than it should be, but I think Cruz wins by 9 on election day, give or take 1 or 2 points. Things could get really ugly for Cruz in 2024, though. R Hold.

UT (Likely R): I am a bit worried about this race, but Hatch will probably be fine in the end. R Hold.

Wow this is hackish.
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