Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 26, 2017, 01:59:21 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  2018 Senatorial Elections
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] Print
Author Topic: 2018 Senatorial Elections  (Read 28897 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13616
United States


View Profile
« Reply #100 on: April 01, 2017, 08:38:22 pm »
Ignore

If his approvals just stay stable, people like Donnelly and McCaskill actually have a chance.

I want to see polling and actual candidates announce, but I'm almost inclined to agree. What exactly is the argument to throw out a Democratic Senator again in places like FL, MI, WI, PA, and OH given the gross incompetence surrounding Trump and the GOP now?

Because polarization might still be a thing? We don't even know what his numbers will look like in 2018, but I highly doubt that all Republican-leaning Independents and rural voters in many of these red states will suddenly decide to vote for a Democrat in a federal race. There are probably a lot of Republicans who disapprove of Trump but are still going to vote Republican. Also, candidate quality matters - if you're a terrible fit for your state or anonymous, incumbency isn't going to save you.

I thought it was clear that the latter part of my paragraph was referring to MI, PA, FL, WI and OH (to a lesser extent). The environement is simply not suitable for ousting a non-offensive Dem incumbent in those states right now.

Well, you said that you "almost" agreed with Devout Centrist, so I was basing it off that. But yeah, it will be an interesting election for sure. Of course the Democrats need to get their act together, find a way to appeal to those voters and not take any of these races for granted because "Trump midterm". But not having Hillary Clinton on the ballot really should help them big time.
Logged



Jimmie
jamespol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4576


View Profile
« Reply #101 on: April 02, 2017, 01:07:46 am »
Ignore

my wild guess is that Democrats will hold on to all their seats  and will pick up NV (because hillary won nevada last year).. arizona (because hillary almost won AZ last year) and Texas (because cruz is hated).

#analysis
Logged
Da-Jon
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16040
United States


View Profile
« Reply #102 on: April 02, 2017, 05:17:07 pm »
Ignore



dream map



If his approvals just stay stable, people like Donnelly and McCaskill actually have a chance.

I want to see polling and actual candidates announce, but I'm almost inclined to agree. What exactly is the argument to throw out a Democratic Senator again in places like FL, MI, WI, PA, and OH given the gross incompetence surrounding Trump and the GOP now?

Because polarization might still be a thing? We don't even know what his numbers will look like in 2018, but I highly doubt that all Republican-leaning Independents and rural voters in many of these red states will suddenly decide to vote for a Democrat in a federal race. There are probably a lot of Republicans who disapprove of Trump but are still going to vote Republican. Also, candidate quality matters - if you're a terrible fit for your state or anonymous, incumbency isn't going to save you.

Yes, these are rural areas aside from IN, who was the most hostile towards Clinton, Tester, Manchin and McCaskill have high approvals for incumbants

As for the GOP incumbants Flake, Heller and Cruz, the Latino corridor of IL,CA, CO, NV, NM, NY and NJ all voted for Clinton in 2016 and will be friendly again for reapportionment in 2020 eventhough, the new map won't take effect until latter.

And AZ is a Clinton friendly state. TX is a special case, but a Latino sunbelt state.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2017, 05:18:47 pm by Da-Jon »Logged
Pericles
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1080
View Profile
« Reply #103 on: April 16, 2017, 03:48:05 am »
Ignore

Red is Democrat, blue is Republican and green is tossup. For the purposes of this scenario, Angus King and Bernie Sanders will be ranked as Democrats.


Arizona may be more Democratic than thought not just because of its D trend but also that Kelli Ward could well be the GOP nominee(she leads in the polls over Flake and if DeWitt is running he wins). McCaskill, Donnelly and Heitkamp are vulnerable, I'd expect at least one of them to lose, but all three have an ability to win in GOP states and their states have shown a willingness to elect Democrats. Nevada's race looks like a prime pickup for the Democrats given Hispanic opposition to Trump and that Heller only won by 1% in 2012.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2017, 03:54:08 am by Pericles »Logged

#NeverTrump2020
#NeverKanye
President dfwlibertylover
dfwlibertylover
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2007
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -2.43

View Profile
« Reply #104 on: May 05, 2017, 03:23:01 am »
Ignore

my wild guess is that Democrats will hold on to all their seats  and will pick up NV (because hillary won nevada last year).. arizona (because hillary almost won AZ last year) and Texas (because cruz is hated).

#analysis
You're joking, right? Tongue
Logged

Young Moderate Republican
Rookie
*
Posts: 23


View Profile
« Reply #105 on: May 07, 2017, 11:41:53 pm »
Ignore

my wild guess is that Democrats will hold on to all their seats  and will pick up NV (because hillary won nevada last year).. arizona (because hillary almost won AZ last year) and Texas (because cruz is hated).

#analysis
You're joking, right? Tongue

This must be a joke. TX is safe R on a good day for Dems. Cruz isn't hated here, either. He's the kind of Republican that dominates here. Every statewide elected official here except for John Cornyn is as far right as Cruz.
Logged

I'm a center-right, fiscally and socially moderate millennial. You might call me a South Park Republican.

Political Matrix
Economic score: +1.03
Social score: -4.00
Lok1999
lok1999
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1501
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #106 on: May 18, 2017, 04:09:46 am »
Ignore

Rationale: Trump's approval ratings will be 45-48%.
lol
Logged

A Liberal LGBT in one of the most pro LGBT, but otherwise mostly conservative city.

The Room is by far, hands down the best worst film ever made.
Da-Jon
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16040
United States


View Profile
« Reply #107 on: May 21, 2017, 10:05:44 am »
Ignore



dream map



This scenario is more possible now, since Trump effect will affect the races 2017 and 2018; but this is my dream map with Dems sweeping the House and Govs mansions and impeachment is underway.
Logged
Ridge
Rookie
*
Posts: 44
View Profile
« Reply #108 on: May 21, 2017, 11:57:30 am »
Ignore

AZ: Ward +5
Logged
Da-Jon
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16040
United States


View Profile
« Reply #109 on: May 21, 2017, 03:41:05 pm »
Ignore

Dems if they run a decent candidate can win a competetive race against either Ward or Flake
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13616
United States


View Profile
« Reply #110 on: May 22, 2017, 08:42:04 pm »
Ignore

As of now...

Logged



PNM
Mizzouian
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 366
United States


View Profile
« Reply #111 on: May 22, 2017, 11:17:07 pm »
Ignore

AZ: Ward +5


If Republicans are dumb enough to nominate Ward, they will be Akin-ing that seat away, and it could very well damage the entire Republican statewide ticket downballot like Akin's implosion did.
Logged
Da-Jon
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16040
United States


View Profile
« Reply #112 on: May 23, 2017, 08:44:02 pm »
Ignore

As of now...






In an anti Trump environment McCaskill will win
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines