2018 Senatorial Elections

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. If Trump's approval rating drops to 30%. From RCP. This would be about a D+20 wave, which looks possible, though somewhat optimistic for democrats.

This is an absolute impossibility.

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. If Trump's approval rating drops to 30%. From RCP. This would be about a D+20 wave, which looks possible, though somewhat optimistic for democrats.

This is an absolute impossibility.

YOU ARE A REPUBLICAN HACK!

Kek.

Off topic from this impossibility, why do you think Stabenow is in a bad enough position to be lean D?  I don't really see how she's any worse off than likely D, unless she's got a strong challenger.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

. If Trump's approval rating drops to 30%. From RCP. This would be about a D+20 wave, which looks possible, though somewhat optimistic for democrats.

This is an absolute impossibility.

If Trump keeps up, don't be surprised if you see this map.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Here's my prediction. I know its pretty hackish in favor of democrats, but whatever.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

The Georgia 6 Election pretend ominous signs for Democrats in Indiana and Missouri. In GA the base turned out rejecting a moderate Democrat in Ossoff who ran a decent Campaign. And in MidTerms IN & MO are lean more to the right than in POTUS years.

I think McCaskill & Donnelly are gone.

Cuz GA-6 is comparable to MO and IN

The GOP Base turned out. That matters. Democrats were banking on the Republican Base abandoning Handel because of Trump. That didn't happen.

They underperfomed by a large number of points. Most Clinton republicans are staying blue.

I like how he conveniently ignored how Ossoff retained most of the Romney-Clinton voters while ignoring how many Trump voters that James Thompson, Quist, and Parnell presumably got

What?

[TheSaint250]

. If Trump's approval rating drops to 30%. From RCP. This would be about a D+20 wave, which looks possible, though somewhat optimistic for democrats.

This is an absolute impossibility.

If Trump keeps up, don't be surprised if you see this map.

...with Alabama, Nebraska, and Texas voting Democrat? Nope.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

. If Trump's approval rating drops to 30%. From RCP. This would be about a D+20 wave, which looks possible, though somewhat optimistic for democrats.

This is an absolute impossibility.

If Trump keeps up, don't be surprised if you see this map.

...with Alabama, Nebraska, and Texas voting Democrat? Nope.

A R+5 state, a state with a possibly ineffective nominee, and a state which had a democrat senator 5 years ago. All obviously impossible to win even in a landslide.

[RINO Tom]

The Georgia 6 Election pretend ominous signs for Democrats in Indiana and Missouri. In GA the base turned out rejecting a moderate Democrat in Ossoff who ran a decent Campaign. And in MidTerms IN & MO are lean more to the right than in POTUS years.

I think McCaskill & Donnelly are gone.

Cuz GA-6 is comparable to MO and IN

The GOP Base turned out. That matters. Democrats were banking on the Republican Base abandoning Handel because of Trump. That didn't happen.

They underperfomed by a large number of points. Most Clinton republicans are staying blue.

LOL, from a "Clinton Republican," this is bullshlt.

[RINO Tom]

A R+5 state, a state with a possibly ineffective nominee, and a state which had a democrat senator 5 years ago. All obviously impossible to win even in a landslide.

Lol, I swear this will be the pre-election consensus on this site:

As for the GA-06 vs. IN/MO comparison... there are far more "Clinton Republicans" in the former than the latter, so yeah, Donnelly and McCaskill will have a much harder time winning than Ossoff.

Clinton Republicans aren't voting for Donnelly and McCaskill, though.

[jamestroll]

A R+5 state, a state with a possibly ineffective nominee, and a state which had a democrat senator 5 years ago. All obviously impossible to win even in a landslide.

Lol, I swear this will be the pre-election consensus on this site:

stop this is not helping

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

The Georgia 6 Election pretend ominous signs for Democrats in Indiana and Missouri. In GA the base turned out rejecting a moderate Democrat in Ossoff who ran a decent Campaign. And in MidTerms IN & MO are lean more to the right than in POTUS years.

I think McCaskill & Donnelly are gone.

Cuz GA-6 is comparable to MO and IN

The GOP Base turned out. That matters. Democrats were banking on the Republican Base abandoning Handel because of Trump. That didn't happen.

They underperfomed by a large number of points. Most Clinton republicans are staying blue.

LOL, from a "Clinton Republican," this is bullshlt.

Look at Georgia.

[jamestroll]

since this site believes all elections will be like 2016 forever and democrats lose points due to MIDTERM!!! these are my predictions for 2018

Basically it is 2016 + a five point gop add on since we live in a world in which formulas dictate elections:

Arizona: Flake wins by 9

Nevada: Heller wins by 2 to 3

Texas: Cruz wins by 14

Montana: Tester loses by 25

Missouri: McCaskill loses to the currently unnamed Republican candidate 81 to 15 because atlas told me so!

Wisconsin: Baldwin loses by 6 to 7.

Michigan: Stabenow loses to unnamed Republican candidate by 5 to 6 points

Ohio: Sherrod Brown loses by 13 to 15 points.

Pennsylvania: Casey loses by 5 to 6 points.

Florida: Nelson loses by 4 to 6 points.

West Virginia: Manchin loses  like 46 points because all results from 2016 are set in stone forever!!

North Dakota: Heitkamp loses by 41 points!

I know I will still be told that I am being biased towards the Democrats

[UncleSam]

What are people smoking that Mt Treasurer's predictions are 'hackish' Jesus have you learned nothing from the recent past

A few reasons I've shifted my view from R+4 to R+6-7 in recent weeks in the senate (even whe Ds pick up house and governor races):
1. Trump approval has stabilized and the Russia story is rapidly losing credibility. Frankly I always thought it was a losing strategy but Ds need this time to recruit candidates and make up a serious infrastructure gap in many states, and reduced enthusiasm could be damaging to both efforts. Ds need to score a win by blocking healthcare or bringing their own changes to fix ObamaCare to the people and saying 'you can vote for our plan or you can vote for Republicans ripping Medicaid from you and giving that money to the 1%'. Right now there is just no positive messaging at all. 
2. Heitkamp has said she doesn't like being a senator and is openly considering not running for re-election.
3. Wisconsin' article 10 is not discussed much as a reason for it's strong trend towards Rs, but the gap in money and influence of unions there is hitting Ds hard outside of Madison and Milwaukee. I think Baldwin is gonna lose next year, maybe even by a surprising margin.
4. Sherrod Brown is already coming under fire for his progressive stature, and he is dropping in Ohio opinion polls for the same reasons Atlas loves him. Mandel is not a bad candidate any longer even if I want to punch him in the face every time I see him. Sooner Ds realize that and realize golden boy Sherrod Brown is in for a political fight to the death the sooner they can start strong counter-messaging and infrastructure building in a state they have gotten systematically dismantled in in recent years.
5. Republicans are almost certainly going to have an open SCOTUS seat to talk about. Between Kennedy putting off retirement and the actuarial tables on Kennedy, Ginsburg, and Breyer, the odds that Rs will have a SCOTUS seat to talk about through much of next election season will help them greatly. The clout of social conservatives was seen in this vein last year - Rs care much more deeply about the Supreme Court than Ds do, simple as that. If there's a vacancy it wi fire up conservatives. Honestly it might have been better for Ds for Kennedy to retire now vs next year (if it is next year) because that would have faded from people's minds by then.

In any case to ahead save the quote maybe I'll look like a fool next November. But I really think that Ds are, amazingly, underestimating their weakness in the Senate next year.

And yes, I know that Ds are energized and getting lots of recruits and Trump is unpopular etc etc etc. I just think that post-Ga 6 it's hard for my unbiased brain to buy that as a reason why Trump voters won't throw out at least half a dozen Democrats from the Senate next November.

[Xing]

Alright, I'll stop being a Democratic hack. Here's the real ratings map.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

[heatcharger]

So where's PNM now? Here is another map showing MT as Likely D and MO Lean D, but clearly that was just a straw man argument I used, right? No one thinks Tester is heavily favored or that any GOP challenger in Missouri will be an underdog, correct?

Uh, cherrypicking one random person on an internet forum's prediction and applying it to what all pundits and/or Democrats think is kind of the definition of a strawman. But please proceed, governor.

[Pericles]

I don't think this is the most likely outcome but it is possible and I'd say this is my reasonable GOP win scenario.

2018 Senate elections
Mitch McConnell-Republican: 55+3
Chuck Schumer-Democratic: 43-3
Independent: 2_
100 seats
51 for majority

[jamestroll]

At some point the GOP will not have a good night. Should be noted that polling in 2012 underestimated Democratic support.

Of course a good way to lose an election is to act like you can not possibly lose it.

[TheSaint250]

^I think that was a mistake. His numbers have 52 R + the 3 newly elected ones

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Look, how about instead of attacking eachother's predictions we post what we believe the ratings are and how they will go and see how they hold up to the actual results? 

[Pericles]

^I think that was a mistake. His numbers have 52 R + the 3 newly elected ones

Yes even in a wave Democrats will lose Tennessee I meant to put it for the GOP.

[jamestroll]

Of course a good way to lose an election is to act like you can not possibly lose it.

Okay, please show me where exactly I said that.

Hold on, I may have not been referring to you.

Right now we are not in a position to make any confident predictions. Too many contradictory factors.

We saw in 2010 and 2014 midterms how many Democratic Senators were just tossed out. Even if they were entrenched and popular and often by landslide margins. In 2012 they had very good luck and many had no problem winning re-election.  So it is easy right there to say that it was because of "midterms!!". But presidential years were supposedly always supposed to be good for Democrats because the last two presidential cycles and we all see how that went.

I have a hunch that all these deep Trump state Democrats may not necessarily lose in the upcoming midterm despite results of 2010 and 2014. The variables are different.

Special elections do not dictate or even predict what will happen the next cycle but they can give clues. KS-04 shows that the midwest is indeed quite elastic. That may give some hope for McCaskill and Heitkamp. GA-06 showed that the sun belt suburbs are indeed trending to the Democrats but we are not there yet and it also showed overconfidence can destroy election chances. Should be noted that GA-05, which neighbors GA-06, is D+34.  What does it say about the Republican Party that they have to depend on structure to win?

[Pericles]

For the GOP best-case scenario WV and MT could be potential gains, however Tester and Manchin are strong incumbents in states willing to vote for Democrats down-ballot. Florida is possible but it is not Republican-enough to be a very likely gain and given that Nelson is a strong incumbent he'll probably win. I'd say more likely Democrats and Republicans both fail to make significant gains-maybe 1 or 2 gains either way(though 2 R gains probably means Republicans keep both houses) as Democrats gain big at the House and state level.

[Pericles]

My most-likely scenario
2018 Senate elections
Mitch McConnell-Republican: 51-1
Chuck Schumer-Democratic: 47+1
Independent: 2_
100 seats
51 for majority

[Beet]