2018 Senatorial Elections

[Pericles]

Most likely Hillary will be President. The map is favorable to the GOP and dissatisfaction Sith Hillary Cointon will likely rise, and more Republicans will vote. I think Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin can al to Republican. The last two midterms have been GOP waves, and if a Democrat is President the factors are there for a third wave, especially since Hillary for good or for bad is a polarising figure. The Democrats will probably have les than 55 Seats to begin with so will end in the high 40s but having lost the Senate. So they should try push as much as they can in the first two years, and geven midterms are a turnout game they should try to rally the base as the GOP is to minimalise potential losses. But avoid Reading too much into the midterms, when a Democrat is President it's a Republican-leaning electorate that turns out and issues the verdict, not representative of the nation. A huge wave may show some problems though.

[Pericles]

Red is Democrat, blue is Republican and green is tossup. For the purposes of this scenario, Angus King and Bernie Sanders will be ranked as Democrats.

Arizona may be more Democratic than thought not just because of its D trend but also that Kelli Ward could well be the GOP nominee(she leads in the polls over Flake and if DeWitt is running he wins). McCaskill, Donnelly and Heitkamp are vulnerable, I'd expect at least one of them to lose, but all three have an ability to win in GOP states and their states have shown a willingness to elect Democrats. Nevada's race looks like a prime pickup for the Democrats given Hispanic opposition to Trump and that Heller only won by 1% in 2012.

[Pericles]

I don't think this is the most likely outcome but it is possible and I'd say this is my reasonable GOP win scenario.

2018 Senate elections
Mitch McConnell-Republican: 55+3
Chuck Schumer-Democratic: 43-3
Independent: 2_
100 seats
51 for majority

[Pericles]

^I think that was a mistake. His numbers have 52 R + the 3 newly elected ones

Yes even in a wave Democrats will lose Tennessee I meant to put it for the GOP.

[Pericles]

For the GOP best-case scenario WV and MT could be potential gains, however Tester and Manchin are strong incumbents in states willing to vote for Democrats down-ballot. Florida is possible but it is not Republican-enough to be a very likely gain and given that Nelson is a strong incumbent he'll probably win. I'd say more likely Democrats and Republicans both fail to make significant gains-maybe 1 or 2 gains either way(though 2 R gains probably means Republicans keep both houses) as Democrats gain big at the House and state level.

[Pericles]

My most-likely scenario
2018 Senate elections
Mitch McConnell-Republican: 51-1
Chuck Schumer-Democratic: 47+1
Independent: 2_
100 seats
51 for majority

[Pericles]

If McCain's Senate seat becomes vacant, I believe that a special election would be held in 2018 to fill it(http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2017/07/20/what-if-senator-mccain-leaves-office-how-process-works/494621001/). If it does become vacant, what effect do you think it will have on the 2018 Senate elections?

[Pericles]

2018 Senate elections
Mitch McConnell-Republican: 52_ 41.0%
Chuck Schumer-Democratic: 46_ 53.7%
Independent: 2_
100 seats
51 for majority