2018 Senatorial Elections

[TheSaint250]

Lean R:

-Arizona
-Nevada

Lean D:

-Florida
-Montana
-North Dakota
-Ohio
-West Virginia

Likely D:

-Virginia
-Wisconsin (just barely Likely D as of now)

Lean I:

-Maine

Tossup:

-Indiana
-Missouri


If the GOP will pick up any states, they will be Indiana and/or Missouri.  If the Democrats will pick up any seats, they will be Arizona and/or Nevada.  The way I see it, Manchin and Tester will most likely remain in their seats unless a really strong Republican ties them to national Democrats in a strategic way.  The same goes for Heitkamp.  The three of them are moderates and are at a greater position in remaining in their seats than McCaskill and Donnelly, for example (I think Donnelly is relatively moderate too, but I think Indiana would most likely vote for a Republican instead).

[TheSaint250]

Ordinarily, 2018 would be a reverse of the 2006 Democratic wave.. except that the Republican President will be extremely unpopular. The only question is whether the 2018 election will be free and fair.

Democrats have no real chance of winning a majority. Even picking up Arizona and Nevada while holding what they now have,  they would get an effective 50-50 split of the Senate with the VP as the tie-breaker... unless some Republican defects from the Party or dies and creates a vulnerable seat in a state that would likely vote for a Democratic nominee for a Senate seat in a Democratic-leaning state. 

It is telling that a poll that shows Trump approval at 62% in West Virginia suggests that Joe Manchin has an excellent chance of winning re-election. Indiana and Missouri are even less supportive of Republicans.

Wat

[TheSaint250]

[TheSaint250]

lol very sorry to everyone for inverting the colors

[TheSaint250]

lol very sorry to everyone for inverting the colors

Can you provide a link for how you made that? Thanks

https://mapchart.net/usa.html

Just remove the state names (you can do that on the side.)

The site is great for mapmaking.

[TheSaint250]

Actually close to mine. I'd move ND and MT right and NV to tossup and maybe AZ to light red, but pretty reasonable I think. People are forgetting that these Democrats won in an environment that was probably slightly worse than what 2018 is shaping up to be, but oh well

I guess I'm just playing it safe right now with ND and MT, especially since in MT, the GOP bench isn't too deep.  Also, I  forgot to note that AZ's color is lean R and NV's is (the slightest of tilts) tilt R, the latter of which I am only saying once again to play it safe, especially since Heller is an incumbent.  Clearly, though, he would be the first Republican in my ratings I would move leftward if the national environment looks more and more anti-GOP.

[TheSaint250]

. If Trump's approval rating drops to 30%. From RCP. This would be about a D+20 wave, which looks possible, though somewhat optimistic for democrats.

This is an absolute impossibility.

If Trump keeps up, don't be surprised if you see this map.

...with Alabama, Nebraska, and Texas voting Democrat? Nope.

[TheSaint250]

^I think that was a mistake. His numbers have 52 R + the 3 newly elected ones

[TheSaint250]

I'm starting to become more and more convinced that Kaine's seat atm is safe

[TheSaint250]

Why are people saying that Texas is not safe for Cruz?

[TheSaint250]

No.

Missouri is a toss up and West Virginia and North Dakota are likely D.

How is North Dakota likely D? Lean D at best.

Because Heitkamp is probably one of the best retail politicians democrats have in a Red State in 2018. No one thought she had a shot in 2012. Politico just did a big profile on her and they interviewed a trump voter who said he would absolutely vote for her in 2018. 

Your last point is simply a moot anecdote, and should be treated as such. Heitkamp is a good fit for North Dakota, but in the face of trends on both the national and local level thanks to the fracking boom, would that be enough? In situations like this, I think back to Arkansas in 2014, when Mark Pryor, an immensely powerful figure in Arkansas politics, got absolutely sh**tcanned by Tom Cotton (a fairly weak candidate in my opinion) due to the state trends. Yes, southern states tend to be much more inelastic than the Dakotas, but the point still stands nonetheless.

Retail politics doesn't bring a state like ND up to Likely D status. If you look at my map, Likely D includes Baldwin, Casey, Nelson, and Shaheen. Heitkamp is definitely more vulnerable than those candidates. Lean D includes Brown, Manchin, and Heller (flip) - I would argue that Heitkamp is more vulnerable than all of those politicians as well. Hence, a tossup. Probably more safe than Donnelly but that's not saying much.

Difference is in 2008 no one ran against Pryor so he hadn't had a tough re election campaign in awhile. Everyone said Heitkamp had no shot in 2012 and she won. She won because she ran a great campaign not because her opponent said something stupid or no republican didn't run against her. She is popular in her state 60% approval ratings not sure what Pryor's ratings were in 2014. I think Heitkamp had done a better job separating herself from the party. Not sure why you are bringing up Shaheen she is not up until 2020. Baldwin is definitely more vulnerable than you think Obama ran ahead of her.

Pryor probably would've won in 2008 with a GOP opponent. Landrieu did. Just pointing that out

[TheSaint250]

[TheSaint250]

I think some people are being way way too optimistic. Yes Trump will be the most unpopular President two years in - in history. But this country is so polarized between the parties that at this point but I think you'll see R states vote R and D states vote D for the most part.


Republicans win MT, ND, IN, WV
Democrats win NV
----
Republicans +3

2020 Presidential race is when you'll see the first serious WAVE election since '92

We win ND but not MO?!?!

North Dakota is one of the Reddest states in the Nation and this seat was won 50.2 to 49.3 and that was in a Democratic Presidential year... Missouri is a Lean R but not definite R. You have Urban centers of STL & KC... ND is 100% going R, Missouri is tossup IMO

Heitkamp has ~60% approval and the GOP slate doesn't consist of too many decent candidates. Heitkamp has a better chance than McCaskill of surviving.

[TheSaint250]

Why is Wyoming the only safe R seat? And why is Alabama a tossup? More importantly, why is Missouri NOT at least a tossup?