Which of these Sanders caucus states would Hillary have won if they were....
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  Which of these Sanders caucus states would Hillary have won if they were....
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Poll
Question: Semi-open primaries (to award delegates) (democrats, independents, no republicans). Assume the state's registration deadline remained the same (detailed in each option) and that both candidates seriously campaigned in each state.
#1
Colorado (registration deadline: two months in advance)
#2
Minnesota (registration deadline: Same Day)
#3
Kansas (registration deadline: same day)
#4
Nebraska (registration deadline: same day)
#5
Maine (registration deadline: two weeks in advance to change party to Dem/Ind from Rep, etc., same day for new voters)
#6
Utah (registration deadline: Same day)
#7
Idaho (registration deadline: Same Day)
#8
Washington (registration deadline: Same Day)
#9
Alaska (registration deadline: Same Day)
#10
Hawaii (registration deadline: Same Day)
#11
Wyoming (registration deadline: Two weeks in advance)
#12
North Dakota (registration deadline: Same Day)
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Author Topic: Which of these Sanders caucus states would Hillary have won if they were....  (Read 1214 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« on: June 24, 2016, 10:57:56 PM »

Probably Washington as Hillary won a high-turnout beauty contest. Wyoming and Nebraska are toss-ups, I'll be bold and vote that she would have won both. The others would probably still be Bernie, albeit by much smaller margins.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2016, 11:06:49 PM »

Sanders still wins easily, though by a reduced margin:
Minnesota
Kansas
Maine
Utah
Idaho
Washington (Beauty contest notwithstanding, I don't see why she'd win an open WA primary when she lost a closed OR primary by double digits)
Alaska

Toss Ups:
Colorado
Nebraska
Wyoming
North Dakota

I'd say Sanders wins CO/ND, Hillary takes NE/WY.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2016, 11:21:05 PM »

The only ones I think Hillary would've stood a decent chance of winning are CO/NE/WY, and it's hard to say what would've happened. She definitely wouldn't have won a primary with delegates at stake in Washington.
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LLR
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« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2016, 06:30:41 AM »

Y'all are forgetting Hawai'i, she definitely would win there. Wyoming, Nebraska, and maybe Kansas/Washington as well.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2016, 08:02:03 AM »

Wasn't there talk about how Sanders' total opposition to fracking would have likely lost him a North Dakota primary?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2016, 09:42:22 AM »

Y'all are forgetting Hawai'i, she definitely would win there. Wyoming, Nebraska, and maybe Kansas/Washington as well.
Yeah, Sanders only won 70% of the vote there. Easy Hillary win when you unskew the votes.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2016, 02:38:18 PM »

Y'all are forgetting Hawai'i, she definitely would win there. Wyoming, Nebraska, and maybe Kansas/Washington as well.
Yeah, Sanders only won 70% of the vote there. Easy Hillary win when you unskew the votes.

He also got 73% at Washington state, yet he lost the primary.
Next time try to make it a little less easier for us.
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LLR
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« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2016, 02:45:02 PM »

Y'all are forgetting Hawai'i, she definitely would win there. Wyoming, Nebraska, and maybe Kansas/Washington as well.
Yeah, Sanders only won 70% of the vote there. Easy Hillary win when you unskew the votes.

He also got 73% at Washington state, yet he lost the primary.
Next time try to make it a little less easier for us.

And HI's demographics are more favourable to Hillary than Washington.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2016, 03:51:16 PM »

Y'all are forgetting Hawai'i, she definitely would win there. Wyoming, Nebraska, and maybe Kansas/Washington as well.
Yeah, Sanders only won 70% of the vote there. Easy Hillary win when you unskew the votes.

He also got 73% at Washington state, yet he lost the primary.
Next time try to make it a little less easier for us.

Sander had momentum going into the Washington caucus. Hillary had momentum going into the Hawaii Caucus and the Washington Primary.

Good unskewing, by the way.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2016, 03:52:50 PM »

Y'all are forgetting Hawai'i, she definitely would win there. Wyoming, Nebraska, and maybe Kansas/Washington as well.
Yeah, Sanders only won 70% of the vote there. Easy Hillary win when you unskew the votes.

He also got 73% at Washington state, yet he lost the primary.
Next time try to make it a little less easier for us.

Sander had momentum going into the Washington caucus. Hillary had momentum going into the Hawaii Caucus and the Washington Primary.


What is this I don't even.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2016, 03:53:17 PM »

There was no such thing as "momentum" in the Democratic primary.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: June 25, 2016, 03:58:25 PM »

There was no such thing as "momentum" in the Democratic primary.

I most like how Hillary had momentum in Hawaii and Sanders in Washington caucus which took place the same day.
Kingpoleon analysis at its finest.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #12 on: June 27, 2016, 08:48:18 PM »

NOTA. Maybe she would have won Michigan if it was semi-closed.
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Flake
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« Reply #13 on: June 27, 2016, 11:58:25 PM »

Nebraska, Idaho, and Wyoming.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2016, 01:32:27 AM »

Okay, why Idaho? I mean seriously, she got 21% of the vote in the caucus, lost all but one county (and that county was VERY rural, she won it by 20 VOTES to 19 VOTES.), and actually did worse in relative urban areas (Boise, Pocatello, Idaho Falls) than she did statewide.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: June 28, 2016, 08:42:00 AM »

Obviously all smaller margins, but Sanders still wins them all.

Hawaii, Nebraska, and Washington are the closest.
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Human
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« Reply #16 on: June 28, 2016, 05:22:29 PM »

NE and WY
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #17 on: June 28, 2016, 07:52:24 PM »

There was no such thing as "momentum" in the Democratic primary.

I most like how Hillary had momentum in Hawaii and Sanders in Washington caucus which took place the same day.
Kingpoleon analysis at its finest.

If I'm remembering the polls correctly, Sanders had been gaining in Washington and Hillary in Hawaii.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2016, 11:00:49 PM »

There was no such thing as "momentum" in the Democratic primary.

I most like how Hillary had momentum in Hawaii and Sanders in Washington caucus which took place the same day.
Kingpoleon analysis at its finest.

If I'm remembering the polls correctly, Sanders had been gaining in Washington and Hillary in Hawaii.

Not sure about Washington, but I'm pretty sure the Hawaii Caucus was never even polled. People just assumed Hillary would at least reach the low to mid 40s because of the state being heavily non-white.
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Spark
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« Reply #19 on: July 04, 2016, 12:52:03 AM »

Possibly CO, WY, & NE
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