Iran presidential election

[2952-0-0]

anyone have word on them?

[M]

Yes, a Rafsanjani-Moin runoff is expected:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050618/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_elections

However none of the choices are good:

http://nationalreview.com/ledeen/ledeen200506160752.asp

[Platypus]

i found it interesting they extended the voting hours-I presume the turnout was higher then in the US?

[minionofmidas]

It was about 60%, quite comparable to the US, much worse than the last two presidential elections, but much better than some had feared and others hoped, and much better than the last, infamous, parliamentary elections.
Extending the voting hours seems to be more or less customary in Iran.

[M]

Not surprisingly, higher turnout has benefited the reformists, and the wily nuke-happy Rafsanjani got only 21% or so... one can assume he will lose a runoff. However, any reformist who gets past the council of guardians is very likely another Khatami or worse.

http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/spages/589288.html

After a count of 24.9 million valid votes out of the expected total of 32 million, Rafsanjani lead by a slight margin of just over two percent, with 21.30 percent of votes, followed by Mehdi Karroubi who won 19.90 percent of votes.

Another candidate, reformist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, won 18.60 percent of votes, dropping from a tight battle with Rafsanjani at an earlier count.

[M]

From DEBKAfile, http://www.debka.com:

Tehran mayor challenges Rafsanjani in run-off next Friday

June 18, 2005, 5:46 PM (GMT+02:00)

Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani will square off against extremist Tehran mayor Mahmud Ahmadinezhad. Officials in Tehran claim 67% of 47 million-strong electorate voted despite boycott calls. But Islamic regime seeks to show that the people voted in large numbers to counter allegations of major flaws in the election. An unelected clerical body headed by strongman Ali Khamenei disqualified 1000 candidates.



Note- they call Ahmadinejad extremist, while the article I quoted above calls him reformist. So what is he, an extremist reformist? A reformist extremist? Is it more like a cross between Evil Kanevil and Ross Perot, or Moses Mendelssohn and vintage Peter Camejo?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rafsanjani will most likely win. Like Khatami he will likely have has hands tied by the mullas the whole time and thus will be unlikely to make any progress if he pushes for it, but it's better than hardline conservative opponent.

[minionofmidas]

Ahmadinejad is very anti-American. On the other hand, he would be the first non-cleric president of Iran since pro-Democracy terrorists murdered the country's first ever democratically elected president in 1981...Basically we got two rightwingers in a pragmatic vs ideologue runoff.

[M]

Ah, Rafsanjani, the great moderate. And the MSM has been promoting him as such all along.

RAFSANJANI SAYS MUSLIMS SHOULD USE NUCLEAR WEAPON AGAINST ISRAEL

TEHRAN 14 Dec. (IPS) One of Iran’s most influential ruling cleric called Friday on the Muslim states to use nuclear weapon against Israel, assuring them that while such an attack would annihilate Israel, it would cost them "damages only".

"If a day comes when the world of Islam is duly equipped with the arms Israel has in possession, the strategy of colonialism would face a stalemate because application of an atomic bomb would not leave any thing in Israel but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world", Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani told the crowd at the traditional Friday prayers in Tehran.

Analysts said not only Mr. Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s speech was the strongest against Israel, but also this is the first time that a prominent leader of the Islamic Republic openly suggests the use of nuclear weapon against the Jewish State.

"It seems that Mr. Hashemi-Rafsanjani is forgetting that due to the present intertwinement of Israel and Palestine, the destruction of the Jewish State would also means the mass killing of Palestinian population as well", observed one Iranian commentator.

While Israel is believed to possess between 100 to 200 nuclear war heads, the Islamic Republic and Iraq are known to be working hard to produce their own atomic weapons with help from Russia and North Korea, Pakistan, also a Muslim state, has already a certain number of nuclear bomb.

In a lengthy speech to mark the so-called "International Qods (Jerusalem) Day" celebrated in Iran only, Mr. Hashemi-Rafsanjani, who, as the Chairman of the Assembly to Discern the Interests of the State, is the Islamic Republic’s number two man after Ayatollah Ali Khameneh’i, said since Israel was an emanation of Western colonialism therefore "in future it will be the interests of colonialism that will determine existence or non-existence of Israel".

Mr. Hashemi-Rafsanjani made the unprecedented threat as, following new suicide operations inside Israel and against Israeli settlements by Palestinian extremists in PA-controlled zones, responded by Israel’s heaviest bombarding of Palestinian cities, police, communication and radio-television installations, killing and wounding more than 200 people on both sides, resulted in the halting of all contacts between Israel and the PA of Mr. Yaser Arafat.

He said since Israel is the product of Western colonialism, "the continued existence of Israel depends on interests of arrogance and colonialism and as long as the base is helpful for colonialism, it is going to keep it.

Hashemi-Rafsanjani advised Western states not to pin their hopes on Israel's violence because it will be "very dangerous".

"We are not willing to see security in the world is harmed", he said, warning against the "eruption of the Third World War.

"War of the pious and martyrdom seeking forces against peaks of colonialism will be highly dangerous and might fan flames of the World War III", the former Iranian president said, backing firmly suicide operations against Israel.

Quoted by the official news agency IRNA, Mr. Hashemi-Rafsanjani said weakening of Palestinian Jihad is "unlikely", as the Palestinians have come to the conclusion that talks would be effective only "in light of struggle and self-sacrifice- the two key elements that gave way to beginning of the second Intifada".
Iranian analysts and commentators outside Iran immediately reacted to Mr. Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s statement, expressing fear that it might trigger an international backlash against Iran itself, giving Israel, the United States and other Western and even Arab nations to further isolate Iran as a source of threat to regional security.
"Jews shall expect to be once again scattered and wandering around the globe the day when this appendix is extracted from the region and the Muslim world", Mr. Hashemi-Rafsanjani warned, blaming on the United States and Britain the "creation of the fabricated entity" in the heart of Arab and Muslim world.

"The man who considers himself as the most able politician in the Islamic Republic utters such nonsense and empty threats at a very time that the hard line and extremist government of Israel under Mr. Ariel Sharon is looking for justification of its repressive policy against Palestinians", said Mr. Ahmad Salamatian, a veteran political analyst based in Paris.

"At a time that the right wing Israeli government is claiming that the very existence of Israel and the Jews are threatened and uses this pretext as an instrument to advance its policy of repression in Palestine, such statements and ushering such dangerous menaces by one of Iran’s top officials is nothing but bringing water to Israel’s propaganda mill, providing it with more justifications explaining its present maximalist policy", he told the Persian service of Radio France Internationale.

Though Mr. Salamatian is of the opinion that Mr. Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s words are part of both his own show and the ongoing internal tensions between conservatives and reformers, however, he also agrees with other Iranian analysts that his "untimely" menace could backfire, becoming a justification for threats against Iran, at a time that the United States and its allies are determined to continue the fight against international terrorism.

"One of Mr. Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s main characteristics in Iranian politics during the past twenty years is that in order to preserve his own position, he is ready to set fire to all the Caesareas for one handkerchief, including, in the present case, providing Israel with enough pretext to attack Iran", he noted, adding: "for the time being and what is important for Mr. Sharon is that this kind of statements are open invitation for more violence, an encouragement to extremists on either side of the Israel-Palestine conflict".

Observing that despite the fact that Israel is believed to have more than one hundred atomic warheads and the necessary technology to transport them to the very heart of Iran and elsewhere, but no Israeli official nor any newspaper have ever raised the slightest possibility of an atomic threat, "even in defence of their very existence", Mr. Salamatian wondered the reasons behind Mr. Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s declaration, which he said should be taken seriously "considering the rank of the man who pronounced it".

[M]

Why would the ayatollahs want to tie his hands? He is an ayatollah himself, literally. One of the original leaders of the 1979 revolution, handpicked by Khamenei as his successor to the presidency after the death of Khomeini and Khamenei's own elevation. Has been neck deep in terrorism for 25 years.

I ask again, in what way is this man moderate! Are people this stupid, are their memories this short? I come up with only one answer- revealing true Rafsanjani makes the U.S., and therefore Bush, look relatively better. And that is something the MSM will never do, though millions die for it.

[The Duke]

Rafsanjani is a radical.  Its quite clear that voter intimidation and the banning of reform candidates from the ballot has contributed to much of this Iranian political disaster of the last three years or so.

[minionofmidas]

The question you should all be asking yourself is where did Ahmadinejad's votes come from.

And the answer is, the poor. South Tehran, especially. These people are often quite traditional Muslims - but they were part of the reformist electoral alliance of the late 90s.

[Beet]

This election was a major victory for the hardliners and conservatives.

It shows how much Iran has changed since 1997, or even since 3-4 years ago. It's becoming more and more apparent how much the Iraq war really benefitted the hardliners and crushed the nascent counterrevolutionary movement.

[The Duke]

This election was a major victory for the hardliners and conservatives.

It shows how much Iran has changed since 1997, or even since 3-4 years ago. It's becoming more and more apparent how much the Iraq war really benefitted the hardliners and crushed the nascent counterrevolutionary movement.

What crushed the nascent revolutionary movement was the Elite Revolutionary Guard.

[minionofmidas]

What crushed the nascent revolutionary movement was the recognition that it was not a revolutionary movement, at least not to the vast majority of its followers.

[M]

The question you should all be asking yourself is where did Ahmadinejad's votes come from.

And the answer is, the poor. South Tehran, especially. These people are often quite traditional Muslims - but they were part of the reformist electoral alliance of the late 90s.

Yes, the poor. 1 million of them out of 7 million total regular hours voters, all between 3 and 4 in the afternoon.

Lewis, you have been FOOLed!

http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110006845

http://www.nationalreview.com/ledeen/ledeen200506210816.asp

What crushed the nascent revolutionary movement was the recognition that it was not a revolutionary movement, at least not to the vast majority of its followers.

I know too many smart Iranians to share your low opinion of their intelligence.

[minionofmidas]

I've heard reports of voter intimidation as well...and I believe them, don't get me wrong. But how the hell do you claim to know that Ahmadinejad received the bulk of his vote in one hour? there is such a thing as a secret ballot in that country.

I don't have a low majority of Iranians' intelligence...quite on the contrary. Most exile Iranians over here are very well aware of how complex the situation is, and while as a rule quite westernized, refuse to condemn everything about modern Iran...few would agree with BRTD and claim Khomeini was worse than the Shah, for example.

[M]

If you read the articles I'd linked, you'd have noticed:

WSJ: But this time turnout was 62.7%, exactly the level Supreme Leader Khameni had predicted.

Dr. Ledeen: Karroubi had the bad taste to point out that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former mayor of Tehran, and an infamous former chief of the Special Unit of the Revolutionary Guards (the unit in charge of terror and assassination) had been awarded about a million votes between three and four o’clock in the morning. Indeed, Mustafa Moein, the leading "reformist" in the race, was actually winning at three, but dropped out of contention within the hour, as Rafsanjani consolidated his hold on first place. If the official results stand — as they surely will, for anyone who present a complaint will face an exceedingly unpleasant short-term future — Rafsanjani will face Ahmadinejad next Friday. For the record, let’s file away Moein’s lament. "I declare that what happened was an extra-legal move to deprive one candidate of his right and to pull up another candidate...We must take seriously the danger of fascism..."

What has astonished me throughout is not that the MSM missed some detail or presented the story in a strange fashion, as is often the case, but how it missed the story completely. Indeed, even the blogosphere and the hard-hitting analysis sites largely misunderstood everything, though Publius Pundit is wonderful as always:

http://www.publiuspundit.com/?p=1245#comments

Well, Khomeini was far worse for women than the Shah, and for non-Muslims (especially Baha'i, and to some degree Jews and Zoroastrians). He also wrecked their living standards and turned a major nation as a rogue state. And the Secret Police and Evin Prison are as bad or worse under the ayatollahs. So yes, I'd say BRTD is quite right.

I was proud to attend a protest of the Iranian Interests Section in DC on Friday. The humiliation of Iranians and the mullahs' perpetual war with the world must stop soon, or they will unleash a second Holocaust on Israel. This should not be doubted- especially as Rafsanjani, who vowed Israel's nuclear destruction, is now universally touted as the great moderate.

To paraphrase Dr. Ledeen, faster, for G-d's sake.

[minionofmidas]

Oh, okay, I get it. They were counted at that time (between three and four at night). There's two obvious explanations for that -
a) these votes are totally bogus; they do not exist. Problem is that turnout would have to be higher than poll observers thought - which it isn't.
b) Tehran declared at that time, or lots of Tehran precincts did. Ahmadinehad was a favourite son candidate after all (as was pointed out before the election). Remember how the results looked for PA early in the count? Problem with that is...they still look sort of extreme. I'm quite sure these elections were less than clean.

We agree on one thing - Rafsanjani ain't no moderate.

[WMS]

I'm quite sure these elections were less than clean.

We agree on one thing - Rafsanjani ain't no moderate.

Yep. When all the candidates aren't even allowed to run, you do not have a clean election.

And Rafsanjani is only moderate on a relative scale - it's extremist time in Iran...

[M]

Rafsanjani is the Goebbels to Ahmadinejad's Heydrich, if you will.

[Beet]

What crushed the nascent revolutionary movement was the recognition that it was not a revolutionary movement, at least not to the vast majority of its followers.

That's not exactly the counterrevolutionary movement I was talking about, that was only a sign of it. As far as it would overturn the (second) Iranian revolution, it, much like the fall of the U.S.S.R., would be counter- revolutionary in nature, to be precise.

[minionofmidas]

I'm quite sure these elections were less than clean.

We agree on one thing - Rafsanjani ain't no moderate.

Yep. When all the candidates aren't even allowed to run, you do not have a clean election.

That's not even what I meant...that system Iran is using there is obviously very open to abuses - and has been abused from time to time, see the last parliamentary election - but its original purpose, and still its main function, is the same as the types of laws requiring deposits, signatures etc to get onto the ballots in western countries. I agree in principle, though.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

More like the more pragmatic of two conservatives (you can replace that last word with something more suitable if you object to it, btw)

[minionofmidas]

What crushed the nascent revolutionary movement was the recognition that it was not a revolutionary movement, at least not to the vast majority of its followers.

That's not exactly the counterrevolutionary movement I was talking about, that was only a sign of it. As far as it would overturn the (second) Iranian revolution, it, much like the fall of the U.S.S.R., would be counter- revolutionary in nature, to be precise.

No...that's not what most reformist voters wanted, never has been.

[M]

I'm quite sure these elections were less than clean.

We agree on one thing - Rafsanjani ain't no moderate.

Yep. When all the candidates aren't even allowed to run, you do not have a clean election.

That's not even what I meant...that system Iran is using there is obviously very open to abuses - and has been abused from time to time, see the last parliamentary election - but its original purpose, and still its main function, is the same as the types of laws requiring deposits, signatures etc to get onto the ballots in western countries. I agree in principle, though.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

More like the more pragmatic of two conservatives (you can replace that last word with something more suitable if you object to it, btw)

He is no moderate as an Ayatollah,
He is no moderate drinking coca-cola,
He is no moderate as Hojeat el-Islam,
He is no moderate in using da' bomb,
He is no moderate running his nation,
He is no moderate speaking on state news station,
He is no moderate in Iran,
He is no moderate, Rafsanjan.