Is it time to accept that Nativist Nuttery is taking over?

[Mr. Illini]

Brexit is serving as a sort of "last straw" for me when it comes to how I form my expectations politically for the foreseeable future.

Pollsters, the "mainstream media," and most of us here on Atlas are, in my opinion, ignoring the tide that we are facing, and it could have a big impact in November.

Right wing populism is developing (or perhaps has already developed) into a dominant impact on our politics. The polls show us that this is not a majority opinion. This has led many of us to believe that it won't win out.

"The tea party is a fringe group - it won't have a lasting impact."

"2014 will see modest GOP gains, but it certainly won't be a wave."

"Trump will make some noise, but there is no way that Republicans will nominate someone so fringe."

"There's frustration in the UK, but there's no way that a majority of Britons would vote to leave Europe."

What this tells me is that while the polls may show that it isn't a majority sentiment, those that believe it are mobile and they vote in very consistent numbers.

Even until recently, I was one saying that Trump won't have much of a chance in a general election electorate.

I hope we don't make this mistake of underestimating this (really disgusting) Nativist Nuttery again this November. I also hope the left isn't too consumed with its own immature bickering to confront the beast that has been in front of us for 8 years now while we've been doing our best to look the other way.

Thanks for reading. Felt the need to say this.

[TJ in Oregon]

I don't really think Brexit and Trump are even close to equivalent. While there certainly are nativist nutties who voted for Brexit there are also much less crazy reasons why people might vote to leave the EU than nativism. There is certainly a core populist element shared between the two that the "elites" really don't know what they're talking about as much as they like to think they do, but other than that they aren't the same. Trump's odds of winning the US presidential election haven't changed much since Wednesday.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Two sides are forming and neither are very nice.

[Sbane]

Brexit really isn't on the same level of crazy as Trump though, not by a long shot.

I agree with this. The political climate is such that a Trump like candidate could win, but not Trump himself. And such a candidate would get a surprising amount of support among certain minority groups, and the Brexit results showed the same thing. If Trump sobers up and tries to mend relations with minority groups while not backing away from his core issues, he may have a chance. I just don't see him being capable of that. That is why Brexit can win and Trump can't.

[Virginiá]

Brexit really isn't on the same level of crazy as Trump though, not by a long shot.

If I recall correctly, the most striking similarity was the divide between urban centers and rural/non-population center voters on the Brexit issue. It's mostly the same issue we have fueling Republicans v Democrats and the same people leading to the rise of Trump. Non-college educated working class folks who have essentially been left behind by a new economy growing around more skilled labor. America has more of a race issue imo because our country is much more diverse. Working class voters from both countries blame the same kinds of external forces (immigrants, the EU/China)

The thing is, this class of people who is fueling the nativism is shrinking year by year and it's unlikely that this backlash can overcome the other faster growing parts of the electorate long-term, or even short-term at that. At best, this gives Republicans (or whoever panders best to their insecurities) more solid control of the House for a little bit longer - If the backlash grows, that is.

So no, this nuttery seems very unlikely to take over.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think what needs to be understood is at no point did Trump or Brexit destroy traditional conventional wisdom on elections and polls. Trump led virtually every single poll from fall last year. Brexit polls showed a close vote with Brexit leading in many polls.

So this does maybe show that the talking points of "X could never happen despite what the polls say, don't worry" should be disregarded, and that would be a big cause for concern if Trump was actually polling with a lead over Hillary or within the MoE, nothing indicates that Trump can win with his current 6+ point trailing.

[hopper]

Brexit really isn't on the same level of crazy as Trump though, not by a long shot.

If I recall correctly, the most striking similarity was the divide between urban centers and rural/non-population center voters on the Brexit issue. It's mostly the same issue we have fueling Republicans v Democrats and the same people leading to the rise of Trump. Non-college educated working class folks who have essentially been left behind by a new economy growing around more skilled labor. America has more of a race issue imo because our country is much more diverse. Working class voters from both countries blame the same kinds of external forces (immigrants, the EU/China)

The thing is, this class of people who is fueling the nativism is shrinking year by year and it's unlikely that this backlash can overcome the other faster growing parts of the electorate long-term, or even short-term at that. At best, this gives Republicans (or whoever panders best to their insecurities) more solid control of the House for a little bit longer - If the backlash grows, that is.

So no, this nuttery seems very unlikely to take over.

True, this is the first time that White Non-College White Men have felt "pushed" out of the workforce but these White Non-College White Men better suck it up and find a job and stop blaming their problems on Hispanics. What good does that do to blame other people for your problems? It seems stupid.

[Sbane]

I think what needs to be understood is at no point did Trump or Brexit destroy traditional conventional wisdom on elections and polls. Trump led virtually every single poll from fall last year. Brexit polls showed a close vote with Brexit leading in many polls.

So this does maybe show that the talking points of "X could never happen despite what the polls say, don't worry" should be disregarded, and that would be a big cause for concern if Trump was actually polling with a lead over Hillary or within the MoE, nothing indicates that Trump can win with his current 6+ point trailing.

This is also true. I hadn't been following the Brexit polling closely so I believed it when people said the polling had got it wrong...until I actually looked at the polling. Maybe the leave camp slightly overperformed but within the margin of error. People assumed those who were undecided would go strongly for remain, and that was incorrect. Some people are also assuming a lot of the undecided in the presidential race will go for Hillary, and that would be a bad assumption to make as well.

[MK]

Its no more nativist nuttery than it is anarchist nuttery.  The country gave the left a chance in 2008 after being shut out of things for most of the 00's and 8 years later where has it gotten them?  The country is more racially divided and economically depressed than ever before.  The left has went completely insane, are we really throwing eggs at others exercising the right to free speech or in some cases shutting it down altogether ?    Tell me I didn't just see that?  A Muslim terrorist kills a room full of people and the lefts reaction is to blame law-abide citizens.

You guys shouldn't be worried about this election because you have successfully took control of the propaganda machine known as the media(social too) and entertainment that also delivers leftists propaganda.  Get use to a very divided country for the rest of your lifetime most likely.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Its no more nativist nuttery than it is anarchist nuttery.  The country gave the left a chance in 2008 after being shut out of things for most of the 00's and 8 years later where has it gotten them?  The country is more racially divided and economically depressed than ever before.  The left has went completely insane, are we really throwing eggs at others exercising the right to free speech or in some cases shutting it down altogether ?    Tell me I didn't just see that?  A Muslim terrorist kills a room full of people and the lefts reaction is to blame law-abide citizens.

You guys shouldn't be worried about this election because you have successfully took control of the propaganda machine known as the media(social too) and entertainment that also delivers leftists propaganda.  Get use to a very divided country for the rest of your lifetime most likely.

[Intell]

Well, it's more that the working class has been shafted by the traditional left, to a transition of middle class, identity politics with an urban focus. In many cases, the working class is ignored, which lets a candidate like Trump to emerge, as he's the only one, discussing the negatives of globalization and increased immigration. 2016 may be the first year, where working class whites may vote to right of whites in general.

In Brexit, that is the same, the EU is essentially an instrument to further white collar interests, with cheaper products and trade, which is all fine and dandy, but it excludes actual workers whose interests have unheard, as they do not need to be with changing demographics and migration which takes there formerly well paying, union jobs.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Two sides are forming and neither are very nice.

Agreed. Both sides of the establishment set this right-wing populist wave up for themselves a while ago. Democrats have become more entrenched in identity politics than economics and Republicans have become too concerned with furthering their own political careers.

Now, both the left and right have become reactionary groups of individuals who can't stop bickering over each other's policies.

Though I think in Brexit's case Remain people were less motivated to vote than Leave voters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why do so many people on Atlas have this belief that the type of people who post inane rants on Tumblr and the students who drafted that bullsh!t Oberlin demands thing are now the core of the Democratic Party?

[pikachu]

I agree with BRTD... Going by the polls alone, there was no good reason to think Trump would lose or that remain would definitely win. The Tea Party, like you said, really hasn't had that many electoral gains since 2012, and is is not very popular right now. (Did they win any big primaries in 2014? I can't remember any...) I can't speak for the UK, but I haven't seen any proof that immigration is really unpopular in the U.S. outside of a certain section of the Republican Party. Going by this poll and this poll, it looks like Americans have an overall somewhat positive view of immigration, and I'm too lazy to do links for these, but if you look at Republican primary exit polls, it's pretty common to see that even Republicans favor giving legal status to illegal immigrants over deporting them all. Of course, there are some other worrying signs, like the enthusiasm for the Muslim ban and general increased Islamophobia, and liberals shouldn't be complacent, since imo the best way to discredit Trump's politics would be with as big a victory as possible. I think there's a solid future for liberals with the Sanders message to appeal to the working class without resorting to nativism, it just needs a better messenger.

[Mr. Reactionary]

(Did they win any big primaries in 2014? I can't remember any...)

Just in the House. Cantor and Ralph Hall lost, but the Santa Claus guy from Michigan lost to a vocally pro-establishment guy so it was net + 1.

[Indy Texas]

Globalization has different impacts on the elite, urban and educated than it does on everyone else.

The people who work at Barclays in London may as well be on a different planet than the man in Blackpool who didn't go to university.

[hopper]

(Did they win any big primaries in 2014? I can't remember any...)

Just in the House. Cantor and Ralph Hall lost, but the Santa Claus guy from Michigan lost to a vocally pro-establishment guy so it was net + 1.

Hall lost because of his age though. He was 91 years old when he got defeated in the Republican Primary. Cantor lost because he lost focus of his Congressional District needs.

[hopper]

Brexit is serving as a sort of "last straw" for me when it comes to how I form my expectations politically for the foreseeable future.

Pollsters, the "mainstream media," and most of us here on Atlas are, in my opinion, ignoring the tide that we are facing, and it could have a big impact in November.

Right wing populism is developing (or perhaps has already developed) into a dominant impact on our politics. The polls show us that this is not a majority opinion. This has led many of us to believe that it won't win out.

"The tea party is a fringe group - it won't have a lasting impact."

"2014 will see modest GOP gains, but it certainly won't be a wave."

"Trump will make some noise, but there is no way that Republicans will nominate someone so fringe."

"There's frustration in the UK, but there's no way that a majority of Britons would vote to leave Europe."

What this tells me is that while the polls may show that it isn't a majority sentiment, those that believe it are mobile and they vote in very consistent numbers.

Even until recently, I was one saying that Trump won't have much of a chance in a general election electorate.

I hope we don't make this mistake of underestimating this (really disgusting) Nativist Nuttery again this November. I also hope the left isn't too consumed with its own immature bickering to confront the beast that has been in front of us for 8 years now while we've been doing our best to look the other way.

Thanks for reading. Felt the need to say this.

The Tea Party is a fringe group-it won't have a lasting impact-Well it hasn't. The Tea Party was talking about fiscal issues not nativist nuttery.

2014 will see modest GOP Gains but it won't certainly be a wave-Just call it a mini moderate wave!

Even until recently , I was one saying that Trump won't have much of a chance in a General Election-I give him a 5% chance of winning.

[andrew_c]

Brexit really isn't on the same level of crazy as Trump though, not by a long shot.

When compared to Trump, Boris Johnson is sane, Michael Gove is a smart guy, and Nigel Farage is a good leader.

[Boston Bread]

It won't be the end of the world if protectionism and immigration restrictions increase, although it would do a lot more bad than good. Trump is more dangerous than any of those things, though. I wouldn't put it past him to start a world war.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Nativist Nuttery doesn't fully encapsulate or properly describe the motivations behind Brexit. If that is the takeaway from the success of Brexit, then more such movements will rise and succeed in the years to come.