Why has Hillary dropped off so much since March/April?

[Lyin' Steve]

According to pollster (which thankfully has remained the same as it was ten years ago despite being acquired by HP HuffPo), Hillary was at 50% on March 31st.  We can see pretty clearly that in April/May she collapsed almost ten points while Trump made no substantial gains.  Now she's stuck in a rut around 44%.  Why isn't she in the 50s like she was three months ago?  What happened in April/May that caused such a dramatic drop in her general election polling numbers? I don't remember her doing anything particularly controversial or unpopular.

[Xing]

Possibly that more people have started tuning into the election, and are being much more critical of her. It could be that she's in a bit of a dip right now, as well.

[BlueSwan]

Almost certainly the Sanders camp and the far left planting the idea that she is currupt. Before this period she was almost universally liked amongst democrats.

[Lyin' Steve]

Possibly that more people have started tuning into the election, and are being much more critical of her. It could be that she's in a bit of a dip right now, as well.

I haven't heard any new criticism of her in the last three months though.  It's all the same stuff.  Emails, wall street donations, Bosnian snipers, Clinton Cash.

[Xing]

Possibly that more people have started tuning into the election, and are being much more critical of her. It could be that she's in a bit of a dip right now, as well.

I haven't heard any new criticism of her in the last three months though.  It's all the same stuff.  Emails, wall street donations, Bosnian snipers, Clinton Cash.

Right, but it could be that some people are just now starting to pay attention, and are focusing mainly on those "issues."

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Possibly that more people have started tuning into the election, and are being much more critical of her. It could be that she's in a bit of a dip right now, as well.

I haven't heard any new criticism of her in the last three months though.  It's all the same stuff.  Emails, wall street donations, Bosnian snipers, Clinton Cash.

Corruption is a serious insinuation. Once it's planted, it endures. Obviously we had to expect she'd get tarred with it in Republican circles, but when the message comes from Bernie Sanders it does real damage where it otherwise shouldn't have really done. Bernie ratcheted it up three months ago.

[BlueSwan]

Possibly that more people have started tuning into the election, and are being much more critical of her. It could be that she's in a bit of a dip right now, as well.

I haven't heard any new criticism of her in the last three months though.  It's all the same stuff.  Emails, wall street donations, Bosnian snipers, Clinton Cash.

Corruption is a serious insinuation. Once it's planted, it endures. Obviously we had to expect she'd get tarred with it in Republican circles, but when the message comes from Bernie Sanders it does real damage where it otherwise shouldn't have really done. Bernie ratcheted it up three months ago.

Exactly!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary does worse the more people pay attention.

[Doimper]

Hillary does worse the more people pay attention.

I don't come to a forum dedicated to politics to read posts that sound like they've been ripped from Yahoo News

Post something substantive or screw off

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

The LP convention and the selection of Gary Johnson and how dislike-able Trump and Clinton are.

[Tender Branson]

Because US voters are starting to realize what unlikeable trainwrecks Clinton and Trump really are and now they are looking for alternatives ...

[morgieb]

I think Bernie's been a lot more negative in that timeframe, which is part of it IMO.

[Shadows]

Hillary does worse the more people pay attention.

This is true. She is a WC lier & possibly the most corrupt person to run for President. She is crooked Hillary to be honest & who knows may end up in jail.

Horrible Candidate. Her advantage is she has Trump who is a monster & needs to be destroyed. If she was against a moderate Republican like Kasich she would have lost by now. This is especially sad considering this should have been a Landslide for Democrats considering the demographic advantage & Trump. 350 is definitely possible vs Trump!

[dspNY]

Sanders went hard negative with a lot of smears that stretched the truth to put it kindly. However it looks like this is starting to reverse itself (see WaPo and NBC/WSJ today, and most of the national polling in the last week or so). Clinton is starting to pull away a little and the Dems are consolidating a bit

[Virginiá]

Corruption is a serious insinuation. Once it's planted, it endures. Obviously we had to expect she'd get tarred with it in Republican circles, but when the message comes from Bernie Sanders it does real damage where it otherwise shouldn't have really done. Bernie ratcheted it up three months ago.

Exactly the reason Bernie was driving me nuts during his late stage primary push.

In addition to that, #NeverTrump and other people were still hitting Trump hard in ads during the time period in question, so that could have weakened him nationally. However, with Clinton now spending big on media and Bernie folks slowly but surely coming back around, I wouldn't be surprised if she kept at least a modest lead, if not a large one, all the way until election day (give or take a week here and there where Trump ties her or bests with a slim margin. So far that is the best he has been able to do)

[Lief 🗽]

Bernie Sanders decided to become a Trump campaign surrogate in mid-March after it was clear that he wouldn't be the nominee.

[Lyin' Steve]

Bernie Sanders decided to become a Trump campaign surrogate in mid-March after it was clear that he wouldn't be the nominee.

Everything isn't Bernie's fault. Maybe it is just that Clinton is a horrible candidate and wasn't strong enought to decisively defeat Sanders in the primary and defeat Trump in the general.

She did decisively defeat Bernie in the primary and she is defeating Trump in the general.

People seem to have amnesia and forget that Hillary crushed Bernie in five states where he was expected to outperform her on March 15, and that Bernie was behind by hundreds of delegates and had a <5% chance of winning the primary according to predictions markets from then on.  For some reason a narrative has caught on that the democratic primary was close or a virtual tie.  The numbers and delegates split are pretty similar to what Gore-Bradley would have been if Bradley had stuck around until the end; Bernie is just lucky that support was concentrated in certain areas of the map instead of evenly distributed, so he was able to win some states in the midwest and northeast.

[Badger]

The LP convention and the selection of Gary Johnson and how dislike-able Trump and Clinton are.

/

You REALLY think the LP Convention or Gary Johnson has ANYTHING to do with this?

Not 1 voter in 10 outside Atlas knows either.

[Inmate Trump]

Her numbers have been pretty steady actually.

Trump's numbers are the one that have fluctuated.

[ProudModerate2]

trump secured the numbers nomination game, his opponents completely dropped out, and trump received more news. Hillary on the other hand still had to deal with Sanders, and is still continuing to do so (more or less).
All of this made her numbers go down, and trump's went slightly up.
But the trend is now going the other way, and Clinton is once again creating a gap between her and trump. My opinion is that her lead will increase, when Sanders completely concedes and jumps on the Hillary train.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Honestly, the final map for the Democratic primaries is pretty revealing, I think. It pretty conclusively shows that the runner-up only won small states, never really had a chance, and probably should have dropped out earlier.

The only reason it looks like it wasn't a rout is because the guy was too stubborn to ever see the writing on the wall.

[Boston Bread]

Honestly, the final map for the Democratic primaries is pretty revealing, I think. It pretty conclusively shows that the runner-up only won small states, never really had a chance, and probably should have dropped out earlier.

The only reason it looks like it wasn't a rout is because the guy was too stubborn to ever see the writing on the wall.

In a tied map, Bernie would have won CA, PA, and IL. Many big states were more pro-Bernie than the nation as a whole.

[Mallow]

As many others have stated, some of the faux scandals and accusations perpetuated by a small but vocal segment of Bernie supporters (c.f. TYT) definitely had an impact and sullied Clinton's name in the eyes of many progressives who otherwise wouldn't have had a huge problem with her.

And as others have said, she's recovering now (though not back to the levels she was in March/April)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

[Lief 🗽]

Honestly, the final map for the Democratic primaries is pretty revealing, I think. It pretty conclusively shows that the runner-up only won small states, never really had a chance, and probably should have dropped out earlier.

The only reason it looks like it wasn't a rout is because the guy was too stubborn to ever see the writing on the wall.

In a tied map, Bernie would have won CA, PA, and IL. Many big states were more pro-Bernie than the nation as a whole.

Yes, if Bernie had done much better he would have a few of the largest states. Congrats?

[Boston Bread]

Honestly, the final map for the Democratic primaries is pretty revealing, I think. It pretty conclusively shows that the runner-up only won small states, never really had a chance, and probably should have dropped out earlier.

The only reason it looks like it wasn't a rout is because the guy was too stubborn to ever see the writing on the wall.

In a tied map, Bernie would have won CA, PA, and IL. Many big states were more pro-Bernie than the nation as a whole.

Yes, if Bernie had done much better he would have a few of the largest states. Congrats?

Well, it's not like Obama would have won any of the biggest states in a tied map in 08, but he won anyways.
Bernie probably would have won in a 1-1 against someone other than Hillary.