AR-Hendrix College: Trump +11 (user search)
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  AR-Hendrix College: Trump +11 (search mode)
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Author Topic: AR-Hendrix College: Trump +11  (Read 2649 times)
Virginiá
Virginia
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E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« on: June 26, 2016, 10:31:36 AM »

Another sign how far AR has moved to the GOP in the past 20 or so years:

In 2004, Kerry lost it by 10 and he lost by 2 nationally.

Now, Hillary (who was supposed to have a "home state" bonus there) is also down by 11, but ahead by 6 nationally.

So, AR was R+8 in 2004 and R+17 now, even with AR's "favourite daughter" on the ticket ...

Not as bad as in 2008 and 2012 with Obama though ...

A lot of voters in Arkansas won't even remember Clintons in the state, as that was mainly 83 - 92. That's almost 25 years ago. On top of that, Arkansas was already drifting away from Democrats before Clinton showed up. Now, it's really irrelevant who the Democrat is - Unless the candidate is massively popular and well-known in the state, "home state" advantages, if the candidate even gets one, isn't usually a bump so big that it could overcome the level of partisanship present in blue/red states.

That said, +11 isn't that bad for her there. Obama lost in AR by over 20 points in 2012, and just shy of 20 points in 2008.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,884
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2016, 01:38:57 PM »

I'm not sure, maybe at the national level. Arkansas had a Democratic governor until last year; and Mike Beebe was even reelected in the 2010 Tea Party wave with 64% of the vote. Quite stunning.

I think the platform/agenda any future Democratic presidents run on will probably make them unpalatable to Arkansas, but surprisingly Arkansas was one of the last states to fully flip to Republicans post-Obama. Even in 2009 - 2011, Democrats still had a large State House majority (72-28 D) and 27-8 D in the State Senate. Obama really finished off Democrats in the South.
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