We will see an entirely different map this year?

[Senator-elect Spark]

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yep. It's going to be a 269-269 tie, in the weirdest possible way. This is a realigning election folks.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

If Johnson can get more than a couple percent, the West could look a bit funky. Maybe not necessarily on the state level, but perhaps on the county level. Not that Johnson will win any counties, but some might buck their histories. Utah and Arizona should be watched; maybe Montana as well. Not that Hillary will win any of them, but they could get close if Johnson starts to poll higher and Starts taking more from Trump than Clinton.

Yep. It's going to be a 269-269 tie, in the weirdest possible way. This is a realigning election folks.

Fixed it. And it's still a tie. Hilldawg will never win Colorado. /Atlas

[SillyAmerican]

I continue to believe that results will break along establishment / non-establishment lines, even more than party or race or gender or other divides. So yes, I think this will end up being a realigning election, and that trying to make sense of the resulting red / blue map will leave many scratching their heads.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I was of the mind back in April or so, back when I subscribed to the "Trump is Darth Jar-Jar" theory, that this election was going to break the old models, smash all the Red/Blue walls, and create a LOL map.  At the time we didn't have a lot of state polls, and what state polls we were getting were wonky to say the least.

Now it's July.

Now we have the following:

1. Clinton leading within the MoE in nearly all battleground states.
2. Clinton blowing Trump away in the Blue Wall (NJ, MI, ME, OR, MN, CT, WA are all currently looking like 10-15 point wins.  Forget about them.  It's over.)
3. Donald Trump isn't "pivoting" and "looking presidential" at all.  He's the same old Donald.  Perhaps more than ever.

So our baseline is basically 2012.  If there's any realignment from 2012 as far as states swapping colors, it's swap of NC and/or AZ with OH and/or IA.  The NC/OH swap is the most likely scenario.  Hardly a redrawing of the map.

As far as purely flipping the most states, the most likely scenario (at least a 10% chance of occurring) is a Clinton landslide of Obama 2012 plus NC, AZ, GA, MO, MS, SC, TX, AK, ND, SD, KS, NE-1,2, UT, and IN.  Total Trump collapse.  This isn't a realignment, just a Democratic high tide.

[Sir Mohamed]

We certainly won’t see the map posted above. Impossible.