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| | | |-+  1996 with Alexander/McCain as Republican ticket		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Who do you vote for / Who Wins?
Alexander/Alexander   -5 (15.6%)
Alexander/Clinton   -10 (31.3%)
Alexander/Perot   -0 (0%)
Clinton/Alexander   -1 (3.1%)
Clinton/Clinton   -14 (43.8%)
Clinton/Perot   -0 (0%)
Perot/Alexander   -0 (0%)
Perot/Clinton   -2 (6.3%)
Perot/Perot   -0 (0%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 32

Author Topic: 1996 with Alexander/McCain as Republican ticket  (Read 4272 times)
DanielX
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E: 2.45, S: -4.70

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« on: June 17, 2005, 11:33:09 am »
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What happens? Bob Dole, for whatever reason, does not run for the 1996 Republican party nomination. After a contested primary,  Lamar Alexander, former Tennessee Governor and Secretary of Education, wins. He picks Sen. John McCain of Arizona as his runningmate.

I figure that this is a very good ticket for the Republicans to run. Alexander is a fairly popular Southerner who did rather well as Governor of Tennessee - and would be thus vastly better at winning the South then Dole or the elder Bush. McCain's a charismatic war veteran and a perceived moderate. Both Tennessee and Arizona went for Clinton in the real 1996.

Now, with Perot still in the race, Clinton is still most likely the victor, but it'll be much, much more competitive.
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George W. Hobbes
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« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2005, 10:45:56 pm »
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Perot/Clinton.  However, with this match-up I'd say it's a fair assessment that Ross only wins 5% instead of 8%.
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« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2005, 11:29:14 pm »
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A little closer, but Clinton still wins with ease.
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jfern
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E: -7.38, S: -8.36

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« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2005, 11:41:12 pm »
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Ben Meyers
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E: 1.94, S: 5.74

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« Reply #4 on: June 18, 2005, 09:07:59 am »
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Quote from: jfern on June 17, 2005, 11:41:12 pm


Give Nevada to the GOP and then I think it's pretty much accurate
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« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2005, 07:10:19 pm »
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E: 1.38, S: -1.74

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« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2005, 12:52:43 pm »
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Alexander loses.  The End.  Smiley)
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« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2005, 10:31:16 pm »
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Alexander/McCain          272
Clinton/Gore                  266
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« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2005, 04:25:33 pm »
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Nobody could have beaten Clinton in 1996
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« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2005, 05:55:55 pm »
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Quote from: Boss Tweed on July 14, 2005, 04:25:33 pm
Nobody could have beaten Clinton in 1996

Didn't you use to say Specter could have beat Clinton?
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WalterMitty
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E: 1.68, S: -2.26

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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2005, 11:57:53 pm »
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it would have been a close election.  alexander/mccain would have lost narrowly.
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htmldon
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« Reply #11 on: July 18, 2005, 01:35:28 am »
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Quote from: Supersoulty on July 11, 2005, 12:52:43 pm
Alexander loses.  The End.  Smiley)

Grrrrrrrrrr
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Ebowed
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E: -7.76, S: -8.96

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« Reply #12 on: July 18, 2005, 01:54:07 am »
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Same results, just switch Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arizona.  These maps the Republicans have posted are laughably optimistic.
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DanielX
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« Reply #13 on: July 18, 2005, 07:16:40 am »
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Quote from: Secretary of Defense Ebowed on July 18, 2005, 01:54:07 am
Same results, just switch Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arizona.  These maps the Republicans have posted are laughably optimistic.

On the contrary, I think Plummyman's result is the most realistic one so far. Winfield's, on the other hand, would require Perot not to run.
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George W. Hobbes
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« Reply #14 on: July 18, 2005, 07:36:27 pm »
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Frankly, I think if Newt doesn't shut down the government because he's a crybaby, then I think the Republicans had a decent shot at winning back the White House in 1996.

(Also, if Clinton doesn't take Dick Morris' advice and sign the welfare reform bill, then the GOP certainly could win.)

Hmm...I'll have to work on a timeline for that.
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JohnD.Ford
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« Reply #15 on: July 27, 2005, 11:34:09 pm »
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Had the Republicans not passe dwelfare a third time, and thus not allowed Clinton to sign it, he'd have lost by 10 points, and he signed it because Dick Morris' polls showed exactly that happenning.

Lamar is a bad candidate which is why he didn't win a primary.  He could not have won the White House in 1996.

Congratulations on picking a realistic running mate for Alexander, they both have strong ties to Mike Murphy (manager of Lamar '96 and McCain '00).  If you want to lose the GOP nomination, pick Mike Murphy to run your campaign.  McCain is a very realistic Lamar pick for VP though because of that tie.
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« Reply #16 on: July 28, 2005, 07:08:42 am »
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Quote from: WalterMitty on July 17, 2005, 11:57:53 pm
it would have been a close election.  alexander/mccain would have lost narrowly.



I'd probably agree... Clinton would probably beat Alexander by 3-4 points, more than Bush beat Kerry by but less than Clinton beat Dole by in reality. I seem to remember that in “The Clinton Wars” Sidney Blumenthal said that after Colin Powel, Alexander was the candidate that the Clinton team where most worried about, and I think they where right to be worried, Alexander would have squeezed Perot’s vote significantly (down to bellow 5% I would expect), however the closer race would be picked up upon by apathetic Democratic voters and might well have allowed Clinton to push his vote share up by the 0.7% he needed to break 50% of the vote.

Facing a strong Alexander/ McCain GOP ticket would mean an improved republican performance and a disastrous result for Perot’s Reform Party ticket, but ultimately it would not have prevented Clinton from winning re-election by a respectable margin.



Bill Clinton/ Al Gore (Democrat): 348EV, 50%PV.             
Lamar Alexander/ John McCain (Republican): 190EV, 44%PV.
Ross Perot/ Pat Choate (Reform): 0EV, 4%PV.   
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