If African American voter turnout falls to 1996-2004 levels....

[Suburbia]

If African American voter turnout drops to 1996 to 2004 levels, what would Hillary Clinton have to do to win the presidency?

[Boston Bread]

Just win over the rest of the Obama coalition. Even if black turnout dropped to 33% (far lower than any post-civil rights movement election) Obama would have won in 2012.
Try it here: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

[Redban]

The growing Hispanic electorate and the declining white electorate will compensate for any drop in the African-American turnout. As a share of the electorate, the white vote has actually been dropping 1-3% points each cycle since at least 1992.

To answer your question, she simply needs to maintain Obama's 40% of the white vote, 95% of the black vote, and 70% of the Hispanic vote.

The GOP really needs to start getting 35-40% of the Hispanic vote and maybe 10% of the black vote.

[Human]

Even if African-American turnout dropped to 31% in 2012, Obama would've still beaten Mitt Romney.

Afican-American turnout is not going to drop that much. It's probably going to drop to 62%-64% (compared to 66% in 2012). Hispanic/Asian turnout will also drastically increase, which will make up for the slight decrease in black turnout. Also, Donald Trump is going to do significantly worse than Mitt Romney with Hispanics/Asians, which will make up for his miniscule gains with blacks.

[HillOfANight]

http://articles.courant.com/2013-05-08/news/hc-for-first-time-black-voter-turnout-topped-whites-in-2012-election-new-census-data-show-20130508_1_non-hispanic-whites-voter-turnout-census-numbers

Why would it do that?



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/16/the-electorate-in-2014-was-as-diverse-as-2008-thats-remarkable/

[Stranger in a strange land]

Remember that even though Obama won't be on the ballot:

1) He'll campaign hard for Hillary
2) He'll make it known through surrogates that he supports Hillary
3) Hillary is running against a guy who hedged on accepting the endorsement of the LITERAL HEAD OF THE KKK
4) Expanding on point 3, Trump's popularity among Open Racists, White Nationalists, and Confederate Flag Wavers isn't lost on the Black Community.

[Suburbia]

Remember that even though Obama won't be on the ballot:

1) He'll campaign hard for Hillary
2) He'll make it known through surrogates that he supports Hillary
3) Hillary is running against a guy who hedged on accepting the endorsement of the LITERAL HEAD OF THE KKK
4) Expanding on point 3, Trump's popularity among Open Racists, White Nationalists, and Confederate Flag Wavers isn't lost on the Black Community.

Not all African Americans care that Duke supported Trump. Herman Cain doesn't.

[Holmes]

Remember that even though Obama won't be on the ballot:

1) He'll campaign hard for Hillary
2) He'll make it known through surrogates that he supports Hillary
3) Hillary is running against a guy who hedged on accepting the endorsement of the LITERAL HEAD OF THE KKK
4) Expanding on point 3, Trump's popularity among Open Racists, White Nationalists, and Confederate Flag Wavers isn't lost on the Black Community.

Not all African Americans care that Duke supported Trump. Herman Cain doesn't.

Herman Cain is a Republican. How many African-Americans are self-identified Republicans? 5%?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Remember that even though Obama won't be on the ballot:

1) He'll campaign hard for Hillary
2) He'll make it known through surrogates that he supports Hillary
3) Hillary is running against a guy who hedged on accepting the endorsement of the LITERAL HEAD OF THE KKK
4) Expanding on point 3, Trump's popularity among Open Racists, White Nationalists, and Confederate Flag Wavers isn't lost on the Black Community.

Not all African Americans care that Duke supported Trump. Herman Cain doesn't.

Herman Cain is not remotely representative of Black People as a whole. My point isn't that Trump will get 0% of the Black Vote. He'll get at least a few. My point is that it's not likely that black turnout will crater to historically low levels: African-Americans will be motivated to turn out to vote against Trump.

[Nym90]

Black turnout was rising before Obama ran, so it's very unlikely to drop back to 1990s levels. Maybe it could drop back to its 2004 level sans Obama, but the KKK's endorsement of Trump will be enough to keep black turnout energized IMO.

[Nym90]

Remember that even though Obama won't be on the ballot:

1) He'll campaign hard for Hillary
2) He'll make it known through surrogates that he supports Hillary
3) Hillary is running against a guy who hedged on accepting the endorsement of the LITERAL HEAD OF THE KKK
4) Expanding on point 3, Trump's popularity among Open Racists, White Nationalists, and Confederate Flag Wavers isn't lost on the Black Community.

Not all African Americans care that Duke supported Trump. Herman Cain doesn't.

Then I guess it's good for Hillary that she doesn't need 100% of the African American vote to win.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If TRUMP picks Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III as his VP then I predict a new record for black turnout.

[hopper]

The growing Hispanic electorate and the declining white electorate will compensate for any drop in the African-American turnout. As a share of the electorate, the white vote has actually been dropping 1-3% points each cycle since at least 1992.

To answer your question, she simply needs to maintain Obama's 40% of the white vote, 95% of the black vote, and 70% of the Hispanic vote.

The GOP really needs to start getting 35-40% of the Hispanic vote and maybe 10% of the black vote.

Well 10-15% of the Black Vote instead of the 5-10% that they are getting now.

Anyways. I think Blacks will make up 12-13% of the electorate in 2016.

[SingingAnalyst]

It won't happen. Black voters are energized, and will vote at about the same rate, and at about the same Dem percentage, as in 2012.