Atlasia Chronicle - Post-Election Polling Results (Labour Primary)

[Clyde1998]

Hi everyone,

I'm running my first opinion poll since the Presidential election and Brexit - as such, there are questions on hypothetical presidential elections, where there should be a common market between Atlasia and the UK and on the status of Scotland and Northern Ireland within the UK.

http://goo.gl/forms/Nqc0jkjLmRo4aGc22

[Clyde1998]

Thank you to everyone who has taken part so far.

[Clyde1998]

*Bump*

[Clyde1998]

Last call for this poll. I'll be closing it tomorrow.

[Clyde1998]

2nd July 2016
LABOUR APPEAR UNABLE TO CLOSE GAP ON LEINAD
In our recent opinion poll we gave voters seven hypothetical Presidential races, in which seven different Labour members were put up against Leinad. The seven were chosen, as they represent Labour nationally or are the Chairman of a regional Legislative Committee. Our data suggests that all of the candidates are a long way behind the incumbent President.



The battle that drew the closest result was a rematch against Truman, which saw the President win by an overwhelming fourteen percentage points (42.8-57.2), once undecided voters (10.0%) were excluded. This is down slightly on the June election, however this may be due to not offering voters an opinion to vote for another candidate. This result suggests that Truman may be the best Labour candidate for the next Presidential election.

Blair was the second closest, finishing nineteen points behind Leinad (40.6-59.4) - with this race having the fewest number of undecided voters (4.8%). The only region were Blair outperformed Truman was in the North.

A battle between Leinad and DKrol was, in our opinion, going to be interesting - given that the Labour representative was previously a member of Civic Renewal. However, Leinad wins here by twenty-four points (38.1-61.9), with Civic Renewal members continuing their current pattern of voting for Leinad strongly. However, this race did produce the highest number of undecided voters suggesting that DKrol could run Leinad close under the right circumstances.

The other Labour candidates were asked voters about were Darthebear (37.5-62.5), Evergreen (33.4-66.6), Never Again (37.7-62.3) and Smith (32.9-67.1).

ATLASIA-UK COMMON MARKET AGREEMENT RECEIVES 'BREXIT' BOOST
Our latest poll suggest that over three-quarters (75.9%) of Atlasians now back proposing a Common Market Agreement to the United Kingdom, following the Brexit vote last Thursday, once undecided voters were excluded. This is nearly 6% higher than our poll two weeks ago.

If the vote was put to the Atlasian people as a referendum, it would pass in all three regions - with the North being the most supportive. There 87.6% of people said they would want Atlasia to offer a trade deal to the UK, similar to that held between Atlasia and Canada.

ATLASIANS BELIEVE UK CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDA SHOULD OCCUR
Our poll asked voters about the situations in Scotland and Northern Ireland and whether there should be referenda in these two constituent parts of the United Kingdom, as well as how they would vote.

Support for a second referendum on Scottish independence was slightly higher than support for the Common Market, at 76.1%, while 72.5% would back independence for Scotland - given that 62% of Scots backed remaining in the EU.

The Northern Ireland questions saw more division. While 68.9% backed having a referendum on Irish Reunification, only 57.4% backed the proposition, once undecided voters were removed. Given that 30.9% of voters were undecided on the issue, support could change rapidly if a campaign did occur there.

POLLING METHODOLOGY
Respondents: 60
Weighting Method: Weighted by party membership in each region, removing voters who haven't voted for two Presidential elections. Civic Renewal are counted as an "Other Party" in the North and South due to lack of voters in these regions.
Example: For example, Federalist voters in the North make up 13.9% of the poll - as they make up 13.9% of voters from the last two elections.

Respondents by Category:
North Federalist - 7 (Up-weighted to 8.3)
North Labour - 12 (Down-weighted to 11.3)
North Independent - 2 (Up-weighed to 2.4)
North Other - 2 (Up-weighed to 3.0)
South Federalist - 13 (Down-weighed to 10.1)
South Labour - 7 (Down-weighed to 5.9)
South Independent - 4 (Down-weighted to 3.6)
South Other - 1 (Up-weighted to 1.8)
West Civic Renewal - 3 (Unchanged)
West Federalist - 4 (Up-weighted to 4.2)
West Labour - 1 (Up-weighted to 1.8)
West Independent - 1 (Up-weighted to 1.2)
West Other - 3 (Up-weighted to 3.8)

[Clyde1998]

The data tables for the above poll can be found here: http://docdro.id/C1PwTG9

This gives a breakdown by party and region for all questions published so far.

The Labour primary results will, hopefully, be published later today.

EDIT: I've noticed that the Federalist figures were wrong in these tables. This is due to an adding error, where Western Civic Renewal members were being added to the Federalist totals, rather than Western Federalists. This does not affect the headline figures, however, and has now been updated.

[tmthforu94]

These look great, Clyde!

[Clyde1998]

These look great, Clyde!

Thank you. Hopefully these will make it easier to see how the results breakdown by party and region, rather than having to read through any report on them.

[Clyde1998]

The data tables have been updated now to include the Labour Primary result: http://docdro.id/vuOESKH

At the very end of the tables is what would happen in a Labour only race (as would be the case in an actual primary); the net result is the same as an open vote, but different candidates get eliminated at different stages.

[Mike Thick]

Nice, Clyde! Interesting to see how things may go in October.

[This account no longer in use.]

Certainly interesting how Blair and Truman appear to be the frontrunners again.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

that's a hell'va lot better than i'd've expected

[Clyde1998]

Nice, Clyde! Interesting to see how things may go in October.

Certainly interesting how Blair and Truman appear to be the frontrunners again.

Thank you. I'll continue to ask this question to see if anything changes in this race. My next poll will most likely go out on Monday and hopefully I'll be able to get a new national poll out every two weeks; this will help to see if Truman and Blair remain the frontrunners, or if anyone else could challenge them.

I'll also add other candidates to the poll should I think of anyone worth adding - so if anyone wants me to add additional candidates to this race, feel free to ask.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Nice, Clyde! Interesting to see how things may go in October.

Certainly interesting how Blair and Truman appear to be the frontrunners again.

Thank you. I'll continue to ask this question to see if anything changes in this race. My next poll will most likely go out on Monday and hopefully I'll be able to get a new national poll out every two weeks.

I'll also add other candidates to the poll should I think of anyone worth adding - so if anyone wants me to add additional candidates to this race, feel free to ask.

you might think about polling tickets/vp picks?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Nice, Clyde! Interesting to see how things may go in October.

Certainly interesting how Blair and Truman appear to be the frontrunners again.

Thank you. I'll continue to ask this question to see if anything changes in this race. My next poll will most likely go out on Monday and hopefully I'll be able to get a new national poll out every two weeks.

I'll also add other candidates to the poll should I think of anyone worth adding - so if anyone wants me to add additional candidates to this race, feel free to ask.

Good work Clyde. Could you by chance -please poll how Classic Conservative would do against Leinad in a hypothetical nomination challenge. I was interested to see how a scenario like that could play out, similar to what happened with Duke.  

[DKrol]

Surprised to see how well I do in a Labor Primary.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Certainly interesting how Blair and Truman appear to be the frontrunners again.

It's probably just name recognition at work. Blair is the chairman of the party, and I was flooding everyone's inboxes with "Vote for Truman" PMs just a couple of weeks ago, so it makes sense that our names would end up near the top. That will most certainly change if one of these other candidates makes the plunge and begins actively pushing their message.

[Clyde1998]

you might think about polling tickets/vp picks?

I'll put a few in, as well as the standard "President-only questions" to see if there is any major difference for each ticket.

Good work Clyde. Could you by chance -please poll how Classic Conservative would do against Leinad in a hypothetical nomination challenge. I was interested to see how a scenario like that could play out, similar to what happened with Duke.

Thanks. I'll do that one and have another couple for the Federalists, as well.