it would have been a close election. alexander/mccain would have lost narrowly.
I'd probably agree... Clinton would probably beat Alexander by 3-4 points, more than Bush beat Kerry by but less than Clinton beat Dole by in reality. I seem to remember that in “The Clinton Wars” Sidney Blumenthal said that after Colin Powel, Alexander was the candidate that the Clinton team where most worried about, and I think they where right to be worried, Alexander would have squeezed Perot’s vote significantly (down to bellow 5% I would expect), however the closer race would be picked up upon by apathetic Democratic voters and might well have allowed Clinton to push his vote share up by the 0.7% he needed to break 50% of the vote.
Facing a strong Alexander/ McCain GOP ticket would mean an improved republican performance and a disastrous result for Perot’s Reform Party ticket, but ultimately it would not have prevented Clinton from winning re-election by a respectable margin.
Bill Clinton/ Al Gore (Democrat): 348EV, 50%PV.
Lamar Alexander/ John McCain (Republican): 190EV, 44%PV.
Ross Perot/ Pat Choate (Reform): 0EV, 4%PV.
Poll
