Popular vote vs electoral vote maps

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is my best crack at this:

Trump by 5%

Trump 338
Clinton 200

Trump by 1%

Trump 293
Clinton 245

Popular vote tie

Clinton 278
Trump 260

Clinton by 1%

Clinton 294
Trump 244

Clinton by 5%

Clinton 347
Trump 191

Clinton by 10%

Clinton 378
Trump 160


Clinton by 15%

Clinton 461
Trump 77

Anyone want to post yours?

[NOT gonna be banned soon]

I really don't know how to calculate this.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I really don't know how to calculate this.

I'd start from here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

guess how states are going to trend, swing everything about 4% for a 50-50 result.

I'm giving Trump greater support in the Rust Belt.

[adrac]

I'm very hesitant to give Trump MI in an even scenario.

[SingingAnalyst]

Clinton by 5.5%

Clinton 323 EV
Trump 215 EV

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm very hesitant to give Trump MI in an even scenario.

An even scenario would be a shocker, and involves Trump picking up votes in some pretty unorthodox places for a Republican.  I think if he gets there, it's because his Rust Belt strategy worked, and PA-OH-MI are his biggest trends over Romney.

[Wells]

I'll do this one at a time.

Trump by 5%

Trump 348
Clinton 190

Trump by 1%

Trump 321
Clinton 217

Popular vote tie

Trump 278
Clinton 260

More updates later.

[Spark]

Trump by 1%

[Devils30]

Trump isn't winning Michigan if it's a 1% national margin.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

All I can say at this point is that it's clear the EC will turn on Florida and that Clinton +5 would almost certainly include AZ and NC.  I strongly suspect Clinton +10 would involve flipping TX and UT, and that Trump +10 would involve a full sweep of the Midwest with no Dem wins between NY and NM, but I need a lot more data on those two.

Texas is a big ship and takes a large national swing to turn.  I think Clinton +10 still has Trump winning Texas by a narrow margin, but get it to 13% or 14% and it probably will flip.

Other pickups like MS an SC will happen before TX.

UT is a genuine wildcard and difficult to predict.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Popular vote tie

Trump 299
Clinton 239

Trump by 1%

Trump 312
Clinton 226

They hate Trump in Wisconsin.  Hate him.  The WI GOP is very traditionalist, anti-labor, pro-business, and socially conservative.  They are not going to give Trump the support he needs to carry the state in a close race.  WI won't flip unless he's winning the race by at least 4% nationally.

[Nym90]

Agreed, Beef. People who don't understand the Midwest tend to lump Wisconsin in with Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania as the generic "rust belt" that Trump can theoretically sweep to compensate for losing Virginia, Florida, and Colorado but the western Midwest is definitely very distinct from the eastern Midwest.

Despite being less Democratic ever since 1992, Wisconsin will likely be harder for Trump to carry this time than Michigan (not that I think he has much chance in Michigan either, but comparitively speaking).

[Tender Branson]

Rather unpredictable, because Johnson and Stein could do relatively well in this election dominated by 2 major-party trainwrecks ...

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Agreed, Beef. People who don't understand the Midwest tend to lump Wisconsin in with Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania as the generic "rust belt" that Trump can theoretically sweep to compensate for losing Virginia, Florida, and Colorado but the western Midwest is definitely very distinct from the eastern Midwest.

Despite being less Democratic ever since 1992, Wisconsin will likely be harder for Trump to carry this time than Michigan (not that I think he has much chance in Michigan either, but comparitively speaking).

Wisconsin is a difficult state to understand.  Probably harder than any other.  There is a strain of Republicanism there that is very old and very deep.  This is the home of the Republican Party.  The Republicans here are skeptical of unions.  Skeptical of taxes and government.  Very no-nonsense.  A lot of right-wing, pro-life Catholics.  Farmers and small business owners.  They believe that people should work for what they get, and no one should hand it to them. 

Donald Trump coming along and making promises to make their lives better?  To make America better for them?  No, they will make America better for themselves, thank you.  And they are not going to blame problems on Mexicans and Muslims.  They are going to welcome them, give them jobs, and help them become neighbors and good citizens.