PPP/Americans United for Change: AZ, IA, NH, OH, PA, WI

[Terry the Fat Shark]

AZ: http://aufc.3cdn.net/7df2e97a499c038248_9qm6bxwgr.pdf
McCain - 42 Kirkpatrick - 40

IA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/IowaResults616.pdf
Grassley - 46 Judge - 39

NH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/NHResults616.pdf
Hassan - 44 Ayotte - 42

OH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/OhioResults616.pdf
Portman - 40 Strickland - 39

PA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/PennsylvaniaResults616.pdf
Toomey - 40 McGinty - 39

WI: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/WisconsinResults616.pdf
Feingold - 50 Johnson - 37

[Dr. Arch]

IA: Grassley +7, huh. That'll be interesting.

WI: Feingold has this in the bag.

NH: Yep, Ayotte is toast.

AZ: Kirkpatrick might actually pull through here.

OH, PA: Tossups, as expected. I think Toomey will keep, while Strickland will pickup in the end though.

[Ebsy]

Thank you PPP.

[Xing]

Johnson is going to end up like this guy...



Grassley does seem to have lost a lot of popularity among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. It's probably not enough to put him in real trouble, but his margin of victory will probably be underwhelming.

The rest look like close races. McCain's still favored, but clearly Toomey and Portman aren't safe.

Too bad we still don't have any IL polls.

[Heisenberg]

Holy hell@those Climbing Maggie and Clinton margins among women. Republicans need to abandon Ayotte as soon as possible. NH isn't winnable for ANY Republican anymore.

As for the rest: I doubt Johnson will lose by that much, even though he's in big trouble right now. McCain isn't going to lose and if the GOP can hold IA/OH/PA/FL, they will keep the Senate.

My ratings, w/ comments:
NH: Safe D, see quote above. The NRSC would be stupid to try to defend this seat.
WI: Safe D, Johnson keeps shooting himself in the foot. If only Ribble or J.B. Van Hollen could jump in as a replacement.
OH: Tossup/Tilt R, I think Portman narrowly hangs on, he's been polling well.
PA: Leans R, Toomey is polling well, the sample seems a bit too Democratic
AZ: Likely R, Fool's gold as always
IA: Likely R, Grassley 2016=Warner 2014

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Atlas at its best. Kirkpatrick down by 2? "Oh, she might pull this off." Ayotte down by 2? "SHE'S DEAD! GIVE UP!". Let's face it, the reason for the difference is the letters after their names. Honestly, Ayotte only being down by 2 in a poll that was probably slanted to make dems happy is great news.

Holy hell@those Climbing Maggie and Clinton margins among women. Republicans need to abandon Ayotte as soon as possible. NH isn't winnable for ANY Republican anymore.

Chris Sununu is probably a mild favorite in the governor's race.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Atlas at its best. Kirkpatrick down by 2? "Oh, she might pull this off." Ayotte down by 2? "SHE'S DEAD! GIVE UP!". Let's face it, the reason for the difference is the letters after their names. Honestly, Ayotte only being down by 2 in a poll that was probably slanted to make dems happy is great news.

Ayotte is an incumbent, Kirkpatrick is a challenger.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

NH - Tilt D
WI - Lean D
IA - Likely R
OH - Tossup
PA - Tossup
FL - Tossup
NC - Tilt R
AZ - Lean R

[pbrower2a]

Some telling points:

1.  McCain (AZ) is washed up.

2. Johnson (WI) was elected in a freakish climate that will not be repeated in 2016. One and out.

3. Ayotte (NH) is running in a very different climate this time, one in which she will lose narrowly.

4. Toomey (PA) has been good at avoiding controversy. Once re-elected he will show  what Club for Growth  really believes -- that no human suffering is in excess so long as it turns, indulges, or enforces a profit. 

5. Portman (OH) will have a very tough fight.

6. Grassley (IA) is vulnerable if the Republicans force America to await a Trump Presidency to nominate another Justice to the Supreme Court for Antonin Scalia.  Otherwise he wins.

[RFayette]

NH - Tilt D
WI - Lean D Likely D
IA - Likely R
OH - Tossup
PA - Tossup Tilt R
FL - Tossup
NC - Tilt R
AZ - Lean R Tilt R

[RINO Tom]

It's a shame that Kirk and Ayotte will likely go down because of the God-awful candidate at the top of our ticket.  They're both good Senators, and the more purple/blue state Republicans, the better.

[RINO Tom]

It's a shame that Kirk and Ayotte will likely go down because of the God-awful candidate at the top of our ticket. 

I agree with you on the latter (and having at least ONE Republican representing NH in Congress would be nice), but if they go down, it really won't have anything to do with Trump.

Oh, I'd beg to differ (at least as it relates to their margins).  I think an inclusive sounding John Kasich saves Ayotte and gives Kirk a fighting chance.

[This account no longer in use.]

TNVolunteer logic:

Ayotte down by two? She's done, muh angry NH women will sink her.
Johnson down by thirteen? Nope, clearly a junk poll, Johnson will keep it close.

[President Johnson]

LOL at Johnson. That guy is done.

[Brittain33]

It's a shame that Kirk and Ayotte will likely go down because of the God-awful candidate at the top of our ticket.  They're both good Senators, and the more purple/blue state Republicans, the better.

And they will retire having achieved absolutely nothing in the Senate.

[BuckeyeNut]

Portman (OH) will have a very tough fight.

Well, he is the least known man in Ohio.

[morgieb]

Atlas at its best. Kirkpatrick down by 2? "Oh, she might pull this off." Ayotte down by 2? "SHE'S DEAD! GIVE UP!". Let's face it, the reason for the difference is the letters after their names. Honestly, Ayotte only being down by 2 in a poll that was probably slanted to make dems happy is great news.

In fairness the only person arguing the latter is TNVol, who no-one should be taking seriously on NH at this point.

[ElectionsGuy]

Wow, Wulfric makes the most sense in this thread. Classic hopeful interpretation of poll numbers. I would say be weary of PPP when they collab with left wing groups, not that they're wrong, but I'm not going to take it to heart. I do agree that Grassely could be the Warner of 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ slight GOP
OH tossup
PA tossup
Iowa slight GOP
NH lean D

[Classic Conservative]

AZ slight GOP
OH tossup
PA tossup
Iowa slight GOP
NH lean D

He's back!!!

[IceSpear]

AZ slight GOP
OH tossup
PA tossup
Iowa slight GOP
NH lean D

Where have you been dude?!

[SATW]

AZ slight GOP
OH tossup
PA tossup
Iowa slight GOP
NH lean D

Glad you are back! Your disappearance distressed us all! #DaJon2016

[Xing]

What would we do without OC's flawless analysis?

[KingSweden]

AZ slight GOP
OH tossup
PA tossup
Iowa slight GOP
NH lean D

But which of these is part of the 272 freiwal with Castro as VP?