Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If you actually read his quote it's not unreasonable.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[jaichind]

Labour Members Would Back Corbyn in Ballot 50%-47%: YouGov Poll

[Helsinkian]

That's close.

[jaichind]

Labour Members Would Back Corbyn in Ballot 50%-47%: YouGov Poll

Of course Corbyn only won around 50% of LAB members back in 2015.  It was Registered supporters   and Affiliated supporters he cleaned up on. This poll seems to indicate he is about where he was back in 2015 when it comes to LAB members.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Labour Members Would Back Corbyn in Ballot 50%-47%: YouGov Poll

Of course Corbyn only won around 50% of LAB members back in 2015.  It was Registered supporters   and Affiliated supporters he cleaned up on. This poll seems to indicate he is about where he was back in 2015 when it comes to LAB members.

Well sh*t.

[parochial boy]

Labour Members Would Back Corbyn in Ballot 50%-47%: YouGov Poll

Of course Corbyn only won around 50% of LAB members back in 2015.  It was Registered supporters   and Affiliated supporters he cleaned up on. This poll seems to indicate he is about where he was back in 2015 when it comes to LAB members.

Well, not entirely, bear in mind that a lot of those registered supporters and other Corbynistas subsequently joined the Labour party, so you would expect the Labour party membership to be a good deal more pro-Corbyn than it was back in August.

Some of the other questions are pretty telling as well, his approval has fallen from +45% to +3%, which is pretty dramatic, and over half of members are now saying he should step down before the next elections.

tabs are here if anyone is interested.

[Blair]

The polling shows there's been a massive shift in the last month alone.

Corbyn has fell from 64-33 in a race, to 50-47. That's not good

[jaichind]

60,000 New Supporters Join the Labour Party in the Wake of a Plot to Remove Jeremy Corbyn
Friday, July 1, 2016 04:13 AM
by Kate McCann and Senior Political Correspondent
(Telegraph) -- Tens of thousands of new members have joined the Labour party to head off a plot to remove Jeremy Corbyn, sources close to the leader have revealed.

Labour sources claimed that 60,000 new members have flooded to join the party in the last seven days.

20,000 have been checked and over half are thought to have joined to support Mr Corbyn in "a historic shift" to prevent a leadership challenge by Labour MPs.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At this point, is it fair to say that the Labour base is about as out of touch with the British public than the GOP base is to the American one?

[Hnv1]

Labour Members Would Back Corbyn in Ballot 50%-47%: YouGov Poll

that's terrible for an incumbent. first poll is always the strongest, that's the baseline behavioral economics talks about. Eagle reaping through the soft left and unions will reap through this to 55-45 soon enough.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Labour Members Would Back Corbyn in Ballot 50%-47%: YouGov Poll

that's terrible for an incumbent. first poll is always the strongest, that's the baseline behavioral economics talks about. Eagle reaping through the soft left and unions will reap through this to 55-45 soon enough.

President Tom Dewey agrees.

[Blair]

At this point, is it fair to say that the Labour base is about as out of touch with the British public than the GOP base is to the American one?

Yes- I've been meaning to write a very long blog post on it for Labourlist. We share the 5 big problems...

+ Needing to run to the far left to win the leadership- namely being anti-war (No air strikes in Syria, Iraq and deffo not supporting 2003 Iraq),
+ A dedicated and loud online media presence of people outside the party calling people 'Blairites' in the same way that RINO was a spitting barb about 8 years ago
+Picking a leader who no-one sees as actually being able to be PM
+ Being convinced that if we just pick a more left wing person then everyone will come out and vote for us
+Being deluded

[DL]

Corbyn is getting really ridiculous, I'm started to regret ever voting for him.
We should've voted for Burnham

The notorious blairite?

Burnham was hardly a blairite,
Initially, I thought about voting for him but I liked what Corbyn was saying  

Even as someone who worked for Andy; and who voted for him Andy ran in 2010 as the most right wing candidate.

 http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/06/the-humiliation-that-turned-andy-burnham-from-blairite-to-union-man/

I thought Liz Kendall was generally viewed as the most right wing and "Blairite" candidate?

[Phony Moderate]

At this point, is it fair to say that the Labour base is about as out of touch with the British public than the GOP base is to the American one?

Yes- I've been meaning to write a very long blog post on it for Labourlist. We share the 5 big problems...

+ Needing to run to the far left to win the leadership- namely being anti-war (No air strikes in Syria, Iraq and deffo not supporting 2003 Iraq),
+ A dedicated and loud online media presence of people outside the party calling people 'Blairites' in the same way that RINO was a spitting barb about 8 years ago
+Picking a leader who no-one sees as actually being able to be PM
+ Being convinced that if we just pick a more left wing person then everyone will come out and vote for us
+Being deluded

Regardless of whether that assessment is right or wrong, you need to appeal to the centre ground of the Labour membership to win a Labour leadership election. Liz Kendall didn't even attempt to do that, despite her constant ramblings about the need to appeal to the centre ground of the general electorate. Blair, to be fair to him, did make an effort to do that (at least in 1994) and so did GOP relative moderates such as McCain and Romney to the GOP primary electorate.

[Blair]

At this point, is it fair to say that the Labour base is about as out of touch with the British public than the GOP base is to the American one?

Yes- I've been meaning to write a very long blog post on it for Labourlist. We share the 5 big problems...

+ Needing to run to the far left to win the leadership- namely being anti-war (No air strikes in Syria, Iraq and deffo not supporting 2003 Iraq),
+ A dedicated and loud online media presence of people outside the party calling people 'Blairites' in the same way that RINO was a spitting barb about 8 years ago
+Picking a leader who no-one sees as actually being able to be PM
+ Being convinced that if we just pick a more left wing person then everyone will come out and vote for us
+Being deluded

Regardless of whether that assessment is right or wrong, you need to appeal to the centre ground of the Labour membership to win a Labour leadership election. Liz Kendall didn't even attempt to do that, despite her constant ramblings about the need to appeal to the centre ground of the general electorate. Blair, to be fair to him, did make an effort to do that (at least in 1994) and so did GOP relative moderates such as McCain and Romney to the GOP primary electorate.

As is well documented that center ground is now the soft left

[Hnv1]

At this point, is it fair to say that the Labour base is about as out of touch with the British public than the GOP base is to the American one?

Yes- I've been meaning to write a very long blog post on it for Labourlist. We share the 5 big problems...

+ Needing to run to the far left to win the leadership- namely being anti-war (No air strikes in Syria, Iraq and deffo not supporting 2003 Iraq),
+ A dedicated and loud online media presence of people outside the party calling people 'Blairites' in the same way that RINO was a spitting barb about 8 years ago
+Picking a leader who no-one sees as actually being able to be PM
+ Being convinced that if we just pick a more left wing person then everyone will come out and vote for us
+Being deluded

Regardless of whether that assessment is right or wrong, you need to appeal to the centre ground of the Labour membership to win a Labour leadership election. Liz Kendall didn't even attempt to do that, despite her constant ramblings about the need to appeal to the centre ground of the general electorate. Blair, to be fair to him, did make an effort to do that (at least in 1994) and so did GOP relative moderates such as McCain and Romney to the GOP primary electorate.

As is well documented that center ground is now the soft left

It was always the soft left, they just traumatized by Benn that they kept in line for so long.

[Blair]

Apparently the leadership challenge is being pushed back to next Tuesday-Wednesday..... this is starting to remind of the old Brown coups that well led to nothing.

Hope is that Corbyn will realize how difficult it is to run an entire operation (he needs 150 MP's to run the various shadow departments/Whips office etc) and will give up after his Chilcot statement.

[Blair]

https://twitter.com/Owen4Labour

interesting?

[Phony Moderate]

https://twitter.com/Owen4Labour

interesting?

Well at least he waited until after the Benn sacking.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think the way to deal with this is going along with the Hard Lefts beloved habit of obsessing over symbolism: kick some hate figure like Blair or Mandelson out of the party and give them a chance to redraft Clause IV.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently the leadership challenge is being pushed back to next Tuesday-Wednesday..... this is starting to remind of the old Brown coups that well led to nothing.

It's too far gone for that now. Largely because this is not a coup controlled by a small number (even if such a thing was clearly planned!) but an open revolt controlled by no one. Someone at some point will put themselves formally forward. Though the fact that Corbyn is no longer unbeatable amongst the membership might have (already had?) a delaying impact on announcements as it makes things suddenly seem very real.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How many British posters here on the left are being bombarded with SAVE CORBYN notifications on facebook?

[DC Al Fine]

I must say that you Brits do a much better job doing ideological leadership elections. Here in Canada it's pretty awful figuring out factions and such.

[Blair]

How many British posters here on the left are being bombarded with SAVE CORBYN notifications on facebook?

I just got back from a CLP meeting where our MP was heckled, I was called a racist and Momentum turned up in force... if there is a leadership race this summer (I assume by Owen Jones) then it's going to be very ugly.

Worth noting (I may be optimistic) The YouGov Poll, and the Unite Poll both make for very good reading- considering the media narrative is that Corbyn is extremely popular with members, when in fact he's marginally popular. The only problem is that even if we get the entire 40% anti-Corbyn vote from last year we still need to get 10% of his own base (which is possible) whilst offsetting any loses from the massive turnout he'll cause.

Best hope is that Watson will lead the peace talks this weekend, and Corbyn will go

[Hnv1]

How many British posters here on the left are being bombarded with SAVE CORBYN notifications on facebook?

I just got back from a CLP meeting where our MP was heckled, I was called a racist and Momentum turned up in force... if there is a leadership race this summer (I assume by Owen Jones) then it's going to be very ugly.

Worth noting (I may be optimistic) The YouGov Poll, and the Unite Poll both make for very good reading- considering the media narrative is that Corbyn is extremely popular with members, when in fact he's marginally popular. The only problem is that even if we get the entire 40% anti-Corbyn vote from last year we still need to get 10% of his own base (which is possible) whilst offsetting any loses from the massive turnout he'll cause.

Best hope is that Watson will lead the peace talks this weekend, and Corbyn will go

Corbyn is too stuborn, Mcdonnell is using him as a human shield (if he does snap he'll just come as the natural replacement), and Seumas Milne is a psychopath. "There will be no peace", this trots live for factional fighting