Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[Blair]

Hear there are going to be hustings between Eagle and Smith today in the PLP to see who faces Corbyn.

As I said before it all comes down to 'GBs v TB's' again. If Watson backs Smith then there's no way I can see Angela winning

[Phony Moderate]

It's fairly late in the morning on PM changeover day and Smith's announcement is currently the lead story on the BBC News website. Quite impressive for him I suppose.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I cannot imagine a way in which this could possibly end well.

[Famous Mortimer]

Hear there are going to be hustings between Eagle and Smith today in the PLP to see who faces Corbyn.

As I said before it all comes down to 'GBs v TB's' again. If Watson backs Smith then there's no way I can see Angela winning

What does GBs vs TBs mean?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hear there are going to be hustings between Eagle and Smith today in the PLP to see who faces Corbyn.

As I said before it all comes down to 'GBs v TB's' again. If Watson backs Smith then there's no way I can see Angela winning

What does GBs vs TBs mean?

Gordon Brown vs. Tony Blair, the silly civil war that's plagued Labour politics throughout the 1990s and 2000s in which ideology played a very limited role.

[Blair]

Hear there are going to be hustings between Eagle and Smith today in the PLP to see who faces Corbyn.

As I said before it all comes down to 'GBs v TB's' again. If Watson backs Smith then there's no way I can see Angela winning

What does GBs vs TBs mean?

Refers to the Brown Supporters v the Blair supporters- most MP's from the centre and right (even the ones elected in 2010/2015) tend to float towards the old brownites in the party (Tom Watson, Chris Bryant, Yvette Cooper, John Healey, etc) or the Blairites (Ben Bradshaw, Caroline Flint, Wes Streeting)
 
As said it's very little about ideology, and more about petty differences- to give a good example my local MP who's from the right of the party spend about 5 minutes last summer slagging of Tom Watson  (despite the fact he probably agrees with him on 99% of issues)

[parochial boy]

So between Labour leadership elections, General elections and referendums, this will be the 5th time I vote in under 18 months. With a potential 6th on the way.

Anybody else feel like Weimar Germany?

[Blair]

Owen Smith looks to be gaining steam- has already announced he'd want a ref on any new Brexit deal (much like DC did in 2005 about Lisbon) and has attacked Eagle for being supported by people on the far right of the party- for the 11th time with the new membership rules I see Smith having a chance

[Antonio the Sixth]

Owen Smith looks to be gaining steam- has already announced he'd want a ref on any new Brexit deal (much like DC did in 2005 about Lisbon) and has attacked Eagle for being supported by people on the far right of the party- for the 11th time with the new membership rules I see Smith having a chance

Good to know. He seems great from what I've heard.

[MaxQue]

Hear there are going to be hustings between Eagle and Smith today in the PLP to see who faces Corbyn.

As I said before it all comes down to 'GBs v TB's' again. If Watson backs Smith then there's no way I can see Angela winning

What does GBs vs TBs mean?

Refers to the Brown Supporters v the Blair supporters- most MP's from the centre and right (even the ones elected in 2010/2015) tend to float towards the old brownites in the party (Tom Watson, Chris Bryant, Yvette Cooper, John Healey, etc) or the Blairites (Ben Bradshaw, Caroline Flint, Wes Streeting)
 
As said it's very little about ideology, and more about petty differences- to give a good example my local MP who's from the right of the party spend about 5 minutes last summer slagging of Tom Watson  (despite the fact he probably agrees with him on 99% of issues)

I see the Blairite wing is full of terrible people, even today.

[Derpist]

There's something very stupid about PLP. Even if they manage to unseat Corbyn at an election, all of the "voter suppression" they've engaged in will make that a hollow victory. I myself have no opinion on whether their voting requirements are fair or unfair or whatever, but they do seem like a politically bad idea. It's the perfect excuse for Corbynites to not accept a defeat.

If they had just waited until 2020, waited for Corbyn to possibly lose, they could have been back on track for 2025. Now, their best case scenario is 45% of their own voter base are going to permanently regard them as scum. Their worst case scenario is that they get exiled from politics forever if Corbyn wins and they all get reselected.

Their first arugment against Corbyn is that he's unelectable, but they aren't helping them.

Their second argument is that he can't control the PLP, which is kind of circular logic (we oppose him because we oppose him). However,  the PLP. The goal of the leader isn't to soothe the parliamentary caucus - it's to win the next election because you can always get a new parliamentary caucus.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's something very stupid about PLP. Even if they manage to unseat Corbyn at an election, all of the "voter suppression" they've engaged in will make that a hollow victory.

Wasn't the PLP who drew up the new rules but the NEC. In any case pretty much the only people up in arms about this were voting for Corbyn anyway.

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Left activist types might but they are rather less than 45% of the Labour base however defined.

[Blair]

There's something very stupid about PLP. Even if they manage to unseat Corbyn at an election, all of the "voter suppression" they've engaged in will make that a hollow victory. I myself have no opinion on whether their voting requirements are fair or unfair or whatever, but they do seem like a politically bad idea. It's the perfect excuse for Corbynites to not accept a defeat.

If they had just waited until 2020, waited for Corbyn to possibly lose, they could have been back on track for 2025. Now, their best case scenario is 45% of their own voter base are going to permanently regard them as scum. Their worst case scenario is that they get exiled from politics forever if Corbyn wins and they all get reselected.

Their first arugment against Corbyn is that he's unelectable, but they aren't helping them.

Their second argument is that he can't control the PLP, which is kind of circular logic (we oppose him because we oppose him). However,  the PLP. The goal of the leader isn't to soothe the parliamentary caucus - it's to win the next election because you can always get a new parliamentary caucus.

It's the same NEC that voted for JC to be on the ballot... if Jeremy hadn't gone outside to address his fans he would have been able to vote.

Besides telling the PLP to wait until 2020 is pretty stupid, considering we were/are working under the assumption of a snap general election

[Lurker]

Besides telling the PLP to wait until 2020 is pretty stupid, considering we were/are working under the assumption of a snap general election

Really? While the Tories would probably win, I don't see why they would want to risk it, considering how volatile British Politics are at the moment. The potential gain would be slim, already having a comfortable parliamentary majority and not needing to call a new election for almost four years. (I assume they could get rid of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act easily if they wished).

[YL]

Besides telling the PLP to wait until 2020 is pretty stupid, considering we were/are working under the assumption of a snap general election

Really? While the Tories would probably win, I don't see why they would want to risk it, considering how volatile British Politics are at the moment. The potential gain would be slim, already having a comfortable parliamentary majority and not needing to call a new election for almost four years. (I assume they could get rid of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act easily if they wished).

They don't really have a comfortable parliamentary majority if they started to have trouble with backbench discipline, and there are presumably a number of newly annoyed backbenchers.

I suspect that if it weren't for the Fixed Term Parliaments Act they'd be seriously considering going for it, hoping to take advantage of Labour's problems.  And there are ways round the Act, so it'd be complacent for Labour to assume there won't be an election until 2020.

[Blair]

Owen Smith launched today- apparently has the backing of over 100 MPs, appears to be picking up a lot of steam. Expect Eagle will drop out in exchange for shadow Chancellor+ 50/50 cabinet split promise.

[Ronnie]

Jeez, Jeremy Corbyn is really suffering in the polls now.  Fewer than 50% of Labour voters think he'd be a better PM than Theresa May.  Wow!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-comres-poll-labour-tories-prime-minister-who-would-be-better-voters-a7141171.html

I'd really like to see some horse race numbers between him and Smith.

[MaxQue]

Owen Smith launched today- apparently has the backing of over 100 MPs, appears to be picking up a lot of steam. Expect Eagle will drop out in exchange for shadow Chancellor+ 50/50 cabinet split promise.

A big Pharma lobbyist, really?

PLP really wants to lose the working class areas to UKIP.

[Blair]

Owen Smith launched today- apparently has the backing of over 100 MPs, appears to be picking up a lot of steam. Expect Eagle will drop out in exchange for shadow Chancellor+ 50/50 cabinet split promise.

A big Pharma lobbyist, really?

PLP really wants to lose the working class areas to UKIP.

Worked as there head of policy from 2006-2008. Considering he opposed the merger in 2014 involving Phzifer, and is on the soft left of the party I don't see it as much of an issue.

I honestly think someone from South Wales, with his policies and approach is going to do much better than a 66 year old Islington socialist who doesn't sing the national anthem

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Corbyn would beat rivals Angela Eagle and Owen Smith by margins of more than 20 percentage points, a YouGov poll of party members for The Times found.
54% of those surveyed said Corbyn is first choice for leader versus 21% for Eagle and 15% for Smith
55% said Corbyn doing good job, up 4 points in two weeks

[Antonio the Sixth]

(Bloomberg) -- Corbyn would beat rivals Angela Eagle and Owen Smith by margins of more than 20 percentage points, a YouGov poll of party members for The Times found.
54% of those surveyed said Corbyn is first choice for leader versus 21% for Eagle and 15% for Smith
55% said Corbyn doing good job, up 4 points in two weeks

...

[Blair]

Ugh I need a whisky

[Phony Moderate]

Owen Smith does a Leadsom - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/owen-smith-labour-leadership-election-angela-eagle-jeremy-corbyn-candidates-vote-a7143221.html

[Gary J]

The largest split in the history of the Labour Party is probably now inevitable. The election of a leader, other than Corbyn, was the only scenario which might have avoided the breakup.

It seems likely that a majority, quite possibly a large majority of the MPs will form a new party in opposition to a Corbyn led official party. If they become the official opposition in Parliament and can convince most centre-left voters that they are the real heirs of the traditional Labour Party, then they have a chance at becoming a party of government by the second half of the 2020s. If not the first past the post system will shred them to oblivion or minor party status.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Assuming accuracy then this tells us nothing new; he's vulnerable (55% approval for a party leader amongst members is kind of sh!t) but beating him is not going to be easy. Will depend on who is nominated and how the campaign goes.