Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[MaxQue]

Owen Smith launched today- apparently has the backing of over 100 MPs, appears to be picking up a lot of steam. Expect Eagle will drop out in exchange for shadow Chancellor+ 50/50 cabinet split promise.

A big Pharma lobbyist, really?

PLP really wants to lose the working class areas to UKIP.

Worked as there head of policy from 2006-2008. Considering he opposed the merger in 2014 involving Phzifer, and is on the soft left of the party I don't see it as much of an issue.

I honestly think someone from South Wales, with his policies and approach is going to do much better than a 66 year old Islington socialist who doesn't sing the national anthem

I honestly think they are both sub-par (and so is Angela Eagle). Labour big problem isn't Corbyn or the PLP or the NEC (but, honestly, all 3 are terrible at doing their job).

The issue is than there is absolutely no Labour MP right now with enough leadership to beat Conservatives right now. Too much people which never worked outside politics (and it's not being an adviser you develop leadership). There is huge structural issues, but, sure, that's easier to point the PLP or Corbyn instead of solving them.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Owen Smith does a Leadsom - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/owen-smith-labour-leadership-election-angela-eagle-jeremy-corbyn-candidates-vote-a7143221.html

Urgh. I really hope that's not what he had in mind.

[Phony Moderate]

How each Labour MP voted on Trident renewal. Two key names on the 'Aye' list and one or two surprises on the 'No' list.

[jaichind]

Assuming accuracy then this tells us nothing new; he's vulnerable (55% approval for a party leader amongst members is kind of sh!t) but beating him is not going to be easy. Will depend on who is nominated and how the campaign goes.

Yes.  It seems that Owen and Eagle will most likely make a deal for the stronger of the two to take on Corbyn 1-on-1.  The same poll has  Corbyn 58 Eagle 34 and   Corbyn 56 Smith 34.  It seems like   Corbyn is getting his approval numbers which could go down in a contested battle.  55-56 might be   Corbyn's cap.

[Phony Moderate]

Whichever one has less nominations is going to drop out later today apparently.

[Blair]

Evening Standard changed their headline- and the released script show this is no leadsom.

This is the usual bollocks that happened last summer- Kendall's team briefed that Andy was homophobic catholic, and despite it being bollocks the charge kept coming up

I honestly think they are both sub-par (and so is Angela Eagle). Labour big problem isn't Corbyn or the PLP or the NEC (but, honestly, all 3 are terrible at doing their job).

The issue is than there is absolutely no Labour MP right now with enough leadership to beat Conservatives right now. Too much people which never worked outside politics (and it's not being an adviser you develop leadership). There is huge structural issues, but, sure, that's easier to point the PLP or Corbyn instead of solving them.

David Miliband, Alan Johnson,heck even Ed Balls and Andy Burnham have all shown that mysterious 'leadership' trait- it's worth noting that the the three most electoral successful PM's since WW2- Wilson, Blair and Thatcher had all done very little in terms of real leadership, but rather came to power at a good time+ reformed their party.

If we had a businessmen run they'd be called a blairite

[ChrisDR68]

As someone who lived through the 1980's where a Labour civil war locked the Conservatives undeservedly into power I'm feeling jaded by the current trouble and strife within the party.

The left wing socialist wing of the party and the social democratic right wing at war is as old as the hills if you read about the party's history.

It dates back to at least the 1950's when the left had the figurehead of Aneurin Bevan to Tony Benn in the 1970's and 1980's. Now there is Jeremy Corbyn in the 2010's.

Essentially Labour is two parties that pretty much hates each other's guts and really shouldn't be part of the same political movement.

FPTP is the overriding reason they operate under the same umbrella so the ongoing conflict between left and right is not to go away anytime soon so long as that voting system is retained.

This article by Andrew Rawnsley is a good piece on this ongoing historical internal conflict:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/19/imf-cuts-uk-growth-forecasts-following-brexit-vote

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Leadership is supposedly bricking it about Foster's legal challenge. Surprising, but this might just be because he's hired a v. scary looking legal team plus their usual paranoia.

[Blair]

Leadership is supposedly bricking it about Foster's legal challenge. Surprising, but this might just be because he's hired a v. scary looking legal team plus their usual paranoia.

I've read that courts are unwilling to get involved- most think it's badly worded but because it's a 'private club' and the NEC is the established body to deal with these matters they'll ignore it. However nothing is impossible- the lawyer he's got is the Labour Party's own lawyer

Looks like no unity candidate tonight- Smith has 88 MPs+ Eagle has 72. Small enough difference for Eagle to claim she could get a late swing tomorrow.

As I've said I'll reluctantly support Angela, but will go all out for Owen, 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've read that courts are unwilling to get involved- most think it's badly worded but because it's a 'private club' and the NEC is the established body to deal with these matters they'll ignore it.

This has been my assumption, which is why I'm surprised at reports of jitters. Foster would presumably have to prove that procedure was not followed in a manner that caused an inequitable outcome (or whatever the technical jargon is) which doesn't strike me as easy. But I'm not a lawyer.

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Have the individual names been released yet? That's always oddly fun.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eagle's dropped out.

[Blair]

Well I was wrong

[Blair]

List of nominations, confirms what has been said for ages- Smith was backed by the Brownites/soft left

http://www.labour.org.uk/index.php/leadershipcandidates/owen-smith#nominations

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes

Is there a list of Eagle's noms anywhere?

[Blair]

Yes

Is there a list of Eagle's noms anywhere?

Not that I can find- apparently she called McNicol  at 4.30 to tell him not to publish them (there was suppose to be an update at 5)

I'm sure they'll leak tonight

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well there's a map of Smith's nominations anyway. I suppose you could add Current Frontbenchers to this and the remainder would mostly be Eagle noms?

[afleitch]

Looking at that map I genuinely forgot for a second Labour only had one MP in Scotland.

[Phony Moderate]

A candidate whose campaign was managed by Caroline Flint wasn't going to win the Labour leadership in 2016.

[Cassius]

RIP Angie the Eagle

[Blair]

God that map just reminds me that Labour really only has MP's in the metro areas

[Boston Bread]

Good luck to Owen, he'll need it.

God that map just reminds me that Labour really only has MP's in the metro areas

Here in Canada, even when the NDP comes in third we can still win a third of the land area.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

God that map just reminds me that Labour really only has MP's in the metro areas

The Atlantic center-left's lament, I guess.  Sympathies from America

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well there's a map of Smith's nominations anyway. I suppose you could add Current Frontbenchers to this and the remainder would mostly be Eagle noms?

Welsh parochialism FTW!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

God that map just reminds me that Labour really only has MP's in the metro areas

Old industrial areas and big cities, yeah. But then that's what you'd expect from a party with as strong a class profile to its electorate as Labour after a less than great election.

Oh and a lot of university seats thanks to Clegg. Not that there are many of these.

Oh and Anglesey as well. Because Albert Owen is a wizard.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Welsh parochialism FTW!

Indeed. We (by which I mean 'the Welsh') want our Party back, lol.