Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The only way to absolutely guarantee defeat is to assume that it's going to happen.

[afleitch]

The only way to absolutely guarantee defeat is to assume that it's going to happen.

Are assume that you're winning... (see 2015)

[parochial boy]

Theresa is a hell of a lot more beatable than Cameron; that and she could potentially lose all her credibility in the event of a bad Brexit outcome, or prolonged recession.

[Zanas]

Come on y'all, don't be so pessimistic. We haven't got a clue what the climate will be around 2020 (except it'll be hotter), the Tories might very well sink their own ship into the ground on Brexit or anything else, Corbyn might get a little more... palatable to the general public, so stop acting like you gobble up everything the media feeds you. I'm not saying Corbyn is the best you could hope for, it seems he's not, but it also seems the membership is loyalist, and surely that is something of a certain value, isn't it ? Otherwise, let me point you to the nearest Brecht analogy : "The membership has forfeited the confidence of the Party's elite and can win it back only by redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier in that case for the Party's elite to dissolve the membership and elect another?"

[ChrisDR68]

Labour (and the Tories for that matter) should probably have left electing their party leaders with their MP's in the House of Commons.

Trying to make themselves more democratic has lead to all sorts of problems in both parties (Iain Duncan Smith anyone?).

MP's are answerable to their electorates. Party members are answerable to no-one.

[Phony Moderate]

Labour (and the Tories for that matter) should probably have left electing their party leaders with their MP's in the House of Commons.

The downside to that is...er, ask any Aussie.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"The membership has forfeited the confidence of the Party's elite and can win it back only by redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier in that case for the Party's elite to dissolve the membership and elect another?"

One issue is that this continually happens anyway: membership of political parties is not stable and a smaller proportion of members (of any party) than you'd think are longterm. Of course the various factions only ever complain about this when it hurts them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, the arguments in Foster's case were heard today. Judge seems to have lost the will to live, which is understandable.

[Gary J]

Come on y'all, don't be so pessimistic. We haven't got a clue what the climate will be around 2020 (except it'll be hotter), the Tories might very well sink their own ship into the ground on Brexit or anything else, Corbyn might get a little more... palatable to the general public, so stop acting like you gobble up everything the media feeds you. I'm not saying Corbyn is the best you could hope for, it seems he's not, but it also seems the membership is loyalist, and surely that is something of a certain value, isn't it ? Otherwise, let me point you to the nearest Brecht analogy : "The membership has forfeited the confidence of the Party's elite and can win it back only by redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier in that case for the Party's elite to dissolve the membership and elect another?"

Is not the dissolution of the membership and the election of another, precisely what the Parliamentary Labour Party will do when they split the party?

[Cassius]

Labour (and the Tories for that matter) should probably have left electing their party leaders with their MP's in the House of Commons.

The downside to that is...er, ask any Aussie.

Isn't that more a facet of Australian political culture rather than the electoral system itself (ie Margaret Thatcher would likely have been out by 1981 in Australia).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't that more a facet of Australian political culture rather than the electoral system itself (ie Margaret Thatcher would likely have been out by 1981 in Australia).

You make a compelling case for Australian political culture.

[Blair]

Well naturally everyone wants the MP's to vote when in suits them (OMOV was always the aim of the right in the party)

As boring as it is the tories system of MP's whittling down the list to 2 MPs- who members vote on, is actually a pretty decent one- and wouldn't have produced a different result apart from last summer being Burnham v May.

On other news I went to the Owen Smith rally in London last night- was a very passionate Speaker, and clearly has more fire in his belly than Angela ever had.

The one thing worth noticing is that we've entered silly season- with summer holidays/summer it's likely that many people will switch off after a rather hectic month

[doktorb]

If I'm reading what's going on correctly the Corbynistas are presently busily turning the Labour Party into a pure left wing protest party.

That's all fine and dandy but the end result will almost certainly be an open ended period of Conservative government.

I really don't see the point of doing that in all honesty.

I've read one theory that Corbyn would be happy turning his little bit of the party into Syriza , and I wouldn't put it past him on current form

[Blair]

If I'm reading what's going on correctly the Corbynistas are presently busily turning the Labour Party into a pure left wing protest party.

That's all fine and dandy but the end result will almost certainly be an open ended period of Conservative government.

I really don't see the point of doing that in all honesty.

I've read one theory that Corbyn would be happy turning his little bit of the party into Syriza , and I wouldn't put it past him on current form

Syriza got into government

[doktorb]

If I'm reading what's going on correctly the Corbynistas are presently busily turning the Labour Party into a pure left wing protest party.

That's all fine and dandy but the end result will almost certainly be an open ended period of Conservative government.

I really don't see the point of doing that in all honesty.

I've read one theory that Corbyn would be happy turning his little bit of the party into Syriza , and I wouldn't put it past him on current form

Syriza got into government

Haha, fair!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If I'm reading what's going on correctly the Corbynistas are presently busily turning the Labour Party into a pure left wing protest party.

That's all fine and dandy but the end result will almost certainly be an open ended period of Conservative government.

I really don't see the point of doing that in all honesty.

I've read one theory that Corbyn would be happy turning his little bit of the party into Syriza , and I wouldn't put it past him on current form

Syriza got into government

And a fat lot of good that did left-wing principles!

[Mr. Morden]

Labour (and the Tories for that matter) should probably have left electing their party leaders with their MP's in the House of Commons.

The downside to that is...er, ask any Aussie.

Isn't that more a facet of Australian political culture rather than the electoral system itself (ie Margaret Thatcher would likely have been out by 1981 in Australia).

Yes, but that culture grew out of the old norms of politics eroding.  Similar to how the old political norms in the US said that you weren't supposed to filibuster every single bill, but that got eroded over time, because the rules allowed you to do it, and people found political advantage in exploiting those rules.  If dumping party leaders in the UK was still as easy today as it was in Thatcher's day, then it's perfectly plausible to imagine that the norms similarly would have shifted over time to make dumping party leaders far more frequent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Foster loses his Jerry Springer-esque court case.

[Blair]

to rant someone on the Owen Smith campaign needs to get sacked...

They're method of getting volunteers is to get your email/phone number, ring you once a day on a number you can't call back. How hard is it to send an email out to all volunteers saying 'phone bank session starting here'

It's small things, but JC's team are already phone banking members whilst we haven't even sorted out our volunteers yet

[Blair]

Im starting to like Owen, tho i think some of his proposals may turn off potential swing voters
but so far so good

I've actually heard this from a lot of Blairites- I mean the actual people in Progress and on the right. Think they've come to know that it's better to have Milibandesque policies delivered well rather than delivered by Corbyn's team.

Some thoughts on the race. I started phone banking yesterday after my rant- has a very Alamo feel to do- lots of dark jokes, talks about what to do afterwards and genuine laughter at the state we're in.

+Currently the polling is right 60% JC, 25% Smith, 15% DK

+A lot of people think Corbyn is going to win, and thus won't bother voting. Serious problem

+CLP nominations look bad (50 to JC, 15 to Owen) but vote share we're still at 60/40. We're doing very very well in London which is by far the area with the most votes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In some respects Corbyn only has one real advantage but it's a big one in most parts of the Labour movement; incumbency.

[parochial boy]

I was impressed by Owen's speech setting out his policies the other day. Lots of things I really support - like a wealth tax and worker's councils. What is sad though, is despite his policies being largely similar to Corbyn's (the difference that Smith has policies, and Corbyn has a protest movement), Smith is still a Blairite, right winger.

I'm starting to wonder what actually counts as left wing for the most hardcore of Corbyn's support.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm starting to wonder what actually counts as left wing for the most hardcore of Corbyn's support.

My impression is that it's more about style (anger; either unapologetically working-class (Skinner) or vague 'countercultural' or aging-hippie (Corbyn) vibes; unwillingness to be, look, or feel 'polished') than anything else. I could be totally off-base, though.

[Hnv1]

I'm starting to wonder what actually counts as left wing for the most hardcore of Corbyn's support.

A conjunction of requirement: have no support in any "old" media body which is not virtual, and not to have supported anyThing ever done under new Labour

[Blair]

We could have ran Clive Lewis or Lisa Nandy against JC and we'd still face criticism- they support JC so they look for anything to attack them their opponent. The top 5 things I've heard from day 1 of phone banking

-'If Owen wanted to be leader why didn't he run in 2015?'

- 'I just don't know anything about Owen, but I know that Corbyn is honest/perfect/credible'

- 'Owen hasn't been an MP long enough'

- 'I support democracy'

- 'I don't like JC's policies, he's a weak leader but I just have to support Jeremy''