Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Important thing, though, is that not everyone who voted for Corbyn last time/currently intends to this time is part of one of the various hard cores of support. The selectorate is very diverse.

But notably the Corbyn strategy is clearly to give the impression of inevitability; not illogical given that the risks increase the more people think it's a contest. Smith approach must be the inverse.

[Famous Mortimer]

We could have ran Clive Lewis or Lisa Nandy against JC and we'd still face criticism- they support JC so they look for anything to attack them their opponent. The top 5 things I've heard from day 1 of phone banking

-'If Owen wanted to be leader why didn't he run in 2015?'

- 'I just don't know anything about Owen, but I know that Corbyn is honest/perfect/credible'

- 'Owen hasn't been an MP long enough'

- 'I support democracy'

- 'I don't like JC's policies, he's a weak leader but I just have to support Jeremy''

Most common criticism I hear of him is his ties to big Pharma.

[Blair]

We could have ran Clive Lewis or Lisa Nandy against JC and we'd still face criticism- they support JC so they look for anything to attack them their opponent. The top 5 things I've heard from day 1 of phone banking

-'If Owen wanted to be leader why didn't he run in 2015?'

- 'I just don't know anything about Owen, but I know that Corbyn is honest/perfect/credible'

- 'Owen hasn't been an MP long enough'

- 'I support democracy'

- 'I don't like JC's policies, he's a weak leader but I just have to support Jeremy''

Most common criticism I hear of him is his ties to big Pharma.

I haven't actually heard that yet over the phone-most labour members know very little about him. As with any selectorate you have people who spend too much time (myself) focused on this, and people who will not care at all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Angry people on the internet aren't actually typical of Labour members, even the ones who plan to vote Corbyn.

[StateBoiler]

Angry people on the internet aren't actually typical of anyone.

Fixed

[Blair]

From what I've heard it's likely GMB will back Owen (Paul Kenny, their former leader endorsed him)+ I've also heard that Unison are moving closer to support him. Speaking to members the rank and file trade unions seem to be the most anti-Corbyn.

[Silent Hunter]

The rank and file trade unionists largely don't vote in the election though.

[Pandaguineapig]

They should see if tony blair wants to make a comeback lol

[Phony Moderate]

They should see if tony blair wants to make a comeback lol

Far, far more people would support expelling Blair from the party than his return as leader. And I'm referring to the people in the PLP as opposed to the wider membership.

[Pandaguineapig]

They should see if tony blair wants to make a comeback lol

Far, far more people would support expelling Blair from the party than his return as leader. And I'm referring to the people in the PLP as opposed to the wider membership.

I'm joking but it's funny considering he is the only person to lead labor to victory since the 1970's

[MaxQue]

They should see if tony blair wants to make a comeback lol

Far, far more people would support expelling Blair from the party than his return as leader. And I'm referring to the people in the PLP as opposed to the wider membership.

I'm joking but it's funny considering he is the only person to lead labor to victory since the 1970's

Pretty much anyone could have done so in 1997.

[Blair]

They should see if tony blair wants to make a comeback lol

Far, far more people would support expelling Blair from the party than his return as leader. And I'm referring to the people in the PLP as opposed to the wider membership.

I'm joking but it's funny considering he is the only person to lead labor to victory since the 1970's

Pretty much anyone could have done so in 1997.

Which is what everyone was saying in 1990, about 1992.

Blair's achievement in 1997 wasn't winning- it was winning in Seats that hadn't elected Labour MP's since 1945, and will probably never again.

[Pandaguineapig]

They should see if tony blair wants to make a comeback lol

Far, far more people would support expelling Blair from the party than his return as leader. And I'm referring to the people in the PLP as opposed to the wider membership.

I'm joking but it's funny considering he is the only person to lead labor to victory since the 1970's

Pretty much anyone could have done so in 1997.

Which is what everyone was saying in 1990, about 1992.

Blair's achievement in 1997 wasn't winning- it was winning in Seats that hadn't elected Labour MP's since 1945, and will probably never again.

John Smith's one last heave strategy probably would have given labour a solid majority had he lived but not on the same scale as Tony Blair was able tobget

[parochial boy]

They should see if tony blair wants to make a comeback lol

Far, far more people would support expelling Blair from the party than his return as leader. And I'm referring to the people in the PLP as opposed to the wider membership.

I'm joking but it's funny considering he is the only person to lead labor to victory since the 1970's

Pretty much anyone could have done so in 1997.

Which is what everyone was saying in 1990, about 1992.

Blair's achievement in 1997 wasn't winning- it was winning in Seats that hadn't elected Labour MP's since 1945, and will probably never again.

He was also a major catalyst in both the state the Labour party is in now, and in the massive disillusionment with politics that occurred under his premiership.

I mean, a huge element of Labour struggles with the working classes, possibly even a cause of their major defection to UKIP and to voting to leave the EU, was Blair's liberalism - both economic and social liberalism.

[Ronnie]

What are everyone's thoughts on the Smith-Corbyn debate that happened yesterday?  Unless I'm missing something, nobody has even mentioned it yet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsIb64pCMP8

I like Smith's passion, but it seems his plea for unity within and electability of the Labour Party will fall on deaf ears.  Just like the Republican base in the US, Labour voters seem to want someone who reflects their values more than someone who would have a better chance at winning an election.

That said, I'm not sure even a Smith-led party would have what it takes to win.

On a tangential note, I thought this article contrasting Corbyn's kind of resilience from Hillary Clinton's is pretty compelling:

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/jeremy-corbyn-could-learn-hillary-clinton-about-fighting-power-1572904

[Phony Moderate]

I mean, a huge element of Labour struggles with the working classes, possibly even a cause of their major defection to UKIP and to voting to leave the EU, was Blair's liberalism - both economic and social liberalism.

Yeah, I mean it's a pretty telling fact that Labour won about a million less votes in the landslide of 2001 than they did in 1992 even with a larger percentage share.

Just like the Republican base in the US, Labour voters seem to want someone who reflects their values more than someone who would have a better chance at winning an election.

But with Trump I think it's less a case of him sharing their values and more a case of him sharing their way of expressing themselves. If John Mann were on the hard left and were leader then he'd be a better analogy to Trump...though I doubt most Labour members share his way of expressing themselves.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lazy slippage between 'voters' and 'members' is to be avoided at all costs.

[Phony Moderate]

Lazy slippage between 'voters' and 'members' is to be avoided at all costs.

So most of the 9 million 2015 Labour voters *aren't* sandal-wearers?

[Blair]

If anyone is bored feel free to come to my CLP meeting next week and watch me do a crap imitation of Neil Kinnock's 'A Labour Council, a Laaaabour council' speech

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In further 'Labour Party to change name to 'Jerry Springer Party' news...

Ignoring any appeal issues, then direct implications for this election are probably surprisingly slight (most of the new members are now RSs) but significant indirect implications; definite administrative headache (will it even be possible to carry out the election to the set timetable?), possible financial one as well. There is also now an urgent need to revise the rulebook as it apparently has no real legal standing, but who would be trusted to do that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Meanwhile USDAW's exec endorses Smith. Not really a surprise. Interesting union of course; fourth largest affiliate and growing but hasn't concentrated much on throwing its weight around politically. Will this change?

[Blair]

In all fairness they're the token 'right wing' union who Endorsed Burnham last year. I've heard that GMB will endorse Owen, and that Unison could follow. Despite all the talk we had about unions they're truly dying even in the Labour Party- only 70,000 voted last Summer. The only power they have is their cash, and stopping Unilateralism passing.

In other news the Grassroots slate has romped home in the NEC elections- increased the Corbyn Majority by 2. I'm not an expert on the NEC at all, but I spoke to several people who didn't vote because they had no idea (I think my first one was in 2014 and I literally voted by seeing who I liked in the book)

Final news- I expect that Jess Phillips and others could be planning on resigning the Whip if Corbyn wins...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It increases his de facto majority by one actually; the PLP voted on their section last month at it was -1 for the Left.

But if you effectively (if not officially) run seven candidates for six seats and are organisationally weaker than your opponents can you really be surprised that you miss out?

[Hifly]

It increases his de facto majority by one actually; the PLP voted on their section last month at it was -1 for the Left.

But if you effectively (if not officially) run seven candidates for six seats and are organisationally weaker than your opponents can you really be surprised that you miss out?

Still +2 overall for the left; Angela Eagle was replaced by Jon Trickett as an Opposition Front Bench representative which neutralises the shift in Division V upon Skinner's retirement.

[Blair]

Why the hell was Skinner elected for the PLP slot?