Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[Hifly]

Ah! I remember internal phone bank data from Andy Burnham's campaign back in the days of yore.

No, soz that won't be the result.

[politicallefty]

For what its worth I've just seen the internal phone bank data from the Smith Campaign.

Corbyn 45% Smith 39% Dk: 14%

It's never good news when you release your own internals to show you down by a statistically significant margin.

I'm sorry, but I have to ask. What exactly does the Labour membership want right now? I have a pretty basic understanding of British politics, but not so much into the intricacies of leadership elections. I'm not a Blairite at all, but Corbyn seems like he'll be a disaster for Labour come election time. Provided there's no exigencies around the next election, Theresa May stands to be a very formidable leader for the Tories. I generally support Labour, but it's hard to deny that May is the strongest leader.

It also appears that I was right that UKIP's pre-Brexit numbers have at least in part gone to the Conservatives.

[Phony Moderate]

In the meantime Keith Vaz has provided some comic relief. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37269919

[Slow Learner]

This election is a national disgrace.

[Phony Moderate]

This election is a national disgrace.

The nation doesn't care enough about this election for it to be that.

[politicallefty]

This election is a national disgrace.

Are you not a supporter of the Conservative Party? If I was, I would be quite excited about the next election. Theresa May will probably lead the Conservative Party to its biggest win since Margaret Thatcher. It's not hard to see how she appeals to the average person. From a political standpoint, she should call an election within the the next few months. I think she'd be a lock in a strong majority mandate for a full five years.

[Slow Learner]

This election is a national disgrace.

Are you not a supporter of the Conservative Party? If I was, I would be quite excited about the next election. Theresa May will probably lead the Conservative Party to its biggest win since Margaret Thatcher. It's not hard to see how she appeals to the average person. From a political standpoint, she should call an election within the the next few months. I think she'd be a lock in a strong majority mandate for a full five years.

No, I live in Northern Ireland, and I support the SDLP. Even if I was a Tory, I'd still find this contest utterly shameful, even if it was resulting in better performances from my party.

[politicallefty]

This election is a national disgrace.

Are you not a supporter of the Conservative Party? If I was, I would be quite excited about the next election. Theresa May will probably lead the Conservative Party to its biggest win since Margaret Thatcher. It's not hard to see how she appeals to the average person. From a political standpoint, she should call an election within the the next few months. I think she'd be a lock in a strong majority mandate for a full five years.

No, I live in Northern Ireland, and I support the SDLP. Even if I was a Tory, I'd still find this contest utterly shameful, even if it was resulting in better performances from my party.

I apologize. I assumed your signature with Theresa May implied your support.

[IceAgeComing]

I'm on the left and support Corbyn  (although I'm not a Labour member so that honestly means nothing; although I was probably the only person in the country who moved from the SNP to Labour in may, on the constituency vote at least, I naturally voted for the Greens on the list), I think part of the issue is that it's very hard to win an election just by campaigning that you're not something, especially in an internal election among the left.  I've not been following it since its summer and I have other things to do rather than follow an awful leadership election, but from what I've seen from my friends who are in the Labour party is that although they were always voting for Corbyn (all established members although all were involved with Labour for Independence which means they are slightly abnormal) the Smith campaign's strategy of going "I'm not Corbyn and also a socialist, vote for me!!" isn't working amongst people who are swing voters.  I don't think that there's anyone better around since you need those soft left voters to win something and I doubt that anyone on the right of the party would have done that much better, but if you had policy differences between the candidates rather than just dislike of Corbyn then that might have inspired some more people.  My opinion is that he was never going to lose, even with the things that he's done wrong (the entire EU referendum was a big one for me but I'm probably a little biased considering they are employing me over the winter) he's not angered the membership to the extent that he'll lose a year after getting a huge victory.

To use a slightly tortured American analogy, imagine if Clinton's main primary important wasn't Bernie but instead some boring man in a suit (Mark Warner??) who's entire campaign was "I'm not Hillary!!" with little to no policy differences.  Would the Democratic primaries have been as close as they ended up being?  No, because Sanders actually had the policy differences to inspire people that weren't inspired by Clinton and who wouldn't have supported a generic anti-Hillary candidate - that's why I think Biden might also have done alright if he'd stood.  This analogy is dodgy in a few ways (Clinton is on the right of her party while Corbyn is on the left of his) but I think that it's close enough to show what I'm thinking.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well there aren't many policy differences because there aren't many policy differences within Labour at the moment. None of this is about policy. This isn't the 1980s when there was a genuine division between those who supported a command economy and those who did not. This isn't even the Blair era when there were those who supported socialism via the free market and those who were sceptical.

But of course it's true that this has mostly turned into a referendum on the incumbent which, given Labour Party culture, makes a challenge a very tall order.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What exactly does the Labour membership want right now?

The membership is not a hivemind. It also isn't a constant: people come and come and this changes its political complexion. By this time next year I anticipate absurd nationwide branch stacking by all factions. Joy.

[Phony Moderate]

Surreal to think that only 15 months ago Liz Kendall was seen as a 50-50 shot to win the leadership.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What? She was always an obvious also ran.

[Phony Moderate]

Her betting odds were absurdly short for a brief few days IIRC, and she impressively kicked the other possible Blairite candidates aside. Then she started talking like, well, a Blairite.

[Blair]

She had that Marr interview where she outdid Chukka and everyone for about a week was talking about aspiration; she had a rather true pitch that people want a 'a good job, a good house and someone to love'

Then she started putting forward policies that would have lost in 2010, not just 2015 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are we going to talk about the UB40... thing... all aspects of it... or are we all going to look down at our shoes in a sheepish and embarrassed manner? I think the latter makes the most sense.

Anyway the vote in the PLP on ShadCab elections was passed 169 to 34. It will now go to the NEC. If approved there it will then go to Conference.

[Vega]

Are we going to talk about the UB40... thing... all aspects of it... or are we all going to look down at our shoes in a sheepish and embarrassed manner? I think the latter makes the most sense.

Anyway the vote in the PLP on ShadCab elections was passed 169 to 34. It will now go to the NEC. If approved there it will then go to Conference.

Is it likely that it will pass either?

[Blair]

It's looking more, and more likely- maybe with the understanding JC could still have 3-4 positons.

We'd basically be reverting to Sep 2015- a shadow Cabinet full of people who don't actually support Jeremy

[Gary J]

Will an elected shadow cabinet be bound by collective responsibility? If so, what happens when Jeremy Corbyn is outvoted on issues he feels very deeply about? Would the leader have to resign or rebel against the party line or just allow free votes on all major issues?

[Blair]

Will an elected shadow cabinet be bound by collective responsibility? If so, what happens when Jeremy Corbyn is outvoted on issues he feels very deeply about? Would the leader have to resign or rebel against the party line or just allow free votes on all major issues?

They'd do what they did last year- threaten to impose a three line whip, threaten to sack cabinet, hold a free vote and then slag off half the Cabinet to the Press.

On other issues.

Corbyn wants 'access' to the Single Market, but not membership. Cue shock that JC is a Euroskeptic

[Gary J]

The point I was trying to make is that a shadow cabinet elected by the current PLP is likely to be hostile to Jeremy Corbyn. The leader would not have control over the shadow cabinet and would presumably find his views often rejected by its members. As the leader could not dismiss the members of the elected shadow cabinet, why would they not be free to impose party policy over the leader's objections and publicly repudiate the leader's position if he does not obey the party line in Parliament set by the shadow cabinet majority?

This is not really a situation which has arisen before in modern British politics. The conventions of cabinet government (usually applied by analogy to shadow cabinet's), would break down within the sort of institutional framework the Labour Party is thinking about adopting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah but the Shadow Cabinet does not function as the Cabinet does. All they have to do is oppose the Cabinet. Awkward but theoretically workable and similar situations (if not as extreme and with rather more capable Leaders) have occurred in the past.

[ag]

I mean, this is a political disaster. Britain has no opposition to speak of. Why should any English voter who does not like the Conservatives not vote Libdem at this point?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I mean, this is a political disaster. Britain has no opposition to speak of. Why should any English voter who does not like the Conservatives not vote Libdem at this point?

Stop trying to make they LibDems happen. They're not going to happen.

[ag]

I mean, this is a political disaster. Britain has no opposition to speak of. Why should any English voter who does not like the Conservatives not vote Libdem at this point?

Stop trying to make they LibDems happen. They're not going to happen.

Well, in that case England will become a one-party nation. Please get ready to welcome (for a short time) SNP as the official opposition. Unless, of course, UKIP volunteers. Labour, surely, is trying to get itself out of the job.