Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[adma]

If it's going to happen, it'll have to involve the Lib Dems "re-splitting" into their Liberal and SDP factions, and the SDP half becoming a safe-space for non-Corbynite Labour...

[Slow Learner]

If it's going to happen, it'll have to involve the Lib Dems "re-splitting" into their Liberal and SDP factions, and the SDP half becoming a safe-space for non-Corbynite Labour...

Why?

[DC Al Fine]

I mean, this is a political disaster. Britain has no opposition to speak of. Why should any English voter who does not like the Conservatives not vote Libdem at this point?

Stop trying to make they LibDems happen. They're not going to happen.

Well, in that case England will become a one-party nation. Please get ready to welcome (for a short time) SNP as the official opposition. Unless, of course, UKIP volunteers. Labour, surely, is trying to get itself out of the job.

The SNP can't increase its seat count much, for obvious reasons. Labour would have to lose about 170-180 seats for this to happen. That seems like a bit of the stretch. Is Theresa May supposed to get  60% of the vote or something?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I have no idea what parallel universe Ag inhabits, but it sounds pretty interesting.

[adma]

If it's going to happen, it'll have to involve the Lib Dems "re-splitting" into their Liberal and SDP factions, and the SDP half becoming a safe-space for non-Corbynite Labour...

Why?

Then show us the evidence that the non-Corbynites are ready to flee for the Lib Dems, much less the Cons.  (Though there *could* be an other-way-around situation, i.e. not the Lib Dems "re-splitting", but the majority of the Lab caucus splitting to create a sort of "SDP II" and maybe extending an arm out to remaining Lib Dems)
Incidentally, your current sig has certificate errors.  Remove it, please.

[Pandaguineapig]

I think much of the discussion on the supposed downfall of labour is greatly exaggerated, they're only polling a couple points below their 2010 and 2015 levels, and even with a loss of seats in 2020 a government in 2025 is certainly attainable with May likely to lose some popularity and labour being led by someone halfway competent

[Ronnie]

I think much of the discussion on the supposed downfall of labour is greatly exaggerated, they're only polling a couple points below their 2010 and 2015 levels, and even with a loss of seats in 2020 a government in 2025 is certainly attainable with May likely to lose some popularity and labour being led by someone halfway competent

Even if they do win in 2025, which is no guarantee, I imagine that being out of power for nine more years would be a tough pill to swallow for Labour supporters, considering they've already been in opposition for six...

[Pandaguineapig]

I think much of the discussion on the supposed downfall of labour is greatly exaggerated, they're only polling a couple points below their 2010 and 2015 levels, and even with a loss of seats in 2020 a government in 2025 is certainly attainable with May likely to lose some popularity and labour being led by someone halfway competent

Even if they do win in 2025, which is no guarantee, I imagine that being out of power for nine more years would be a tough pill to swallow for Labour supporters, considering they've already been in opposition for six...

The next election is years off and anything can happen but the only person who looks like they are less suited to lead labour than corbyn is Owen Smith

[YL]

If it's going to happen, it'll have to involve the Lib Dems "re-splitting" into their Liberal and SDP factions, and the SDP half becoming a safe-space for non-Corbynite Labour...

The Lib Dem factions are not "Liberal" and "SDP".

[Blair]

for what its worth Labour will still win the cities- whilst a GE would be bad I can't see us going lower than 180 seats

[Cassius]

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-leadership-hopeful-owen-smith-8803113

Owen Smith comes out with yet another masterful turn of phrase.

[Slow Learner]

I think much of the discussion on the supposed downfall of labour is greatly exaggerated, they're only polling a couple points below their 2010 and 2015 levels, and even with a loss of seats in 2020 a government in 2025 is certainly attainable with May likely to lose some popularity and labour being led by someone halfway competent

There is no guarantee of that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-leadership-hopeful-owen-smith-8803113

Owen Smith comes out with yet another masterful turn of phrase.

Ooooh boy...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Then show us the evidence that the non-Corbynites are ready to flee for the Lib Dems, much less the Cons.

Most would rather stick their hands in a rusty meat grinder than do either. The real concern is that activists may be less active and longterm members may be less likely to temporarily be activists at election time. The masses of post-2015 members having not exactly shown much enthusiasm for such things...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think much of the discussion on the supposed downfall of labour is greatly exaggerated, they're only polling a couple points below their 2010 and 2015 levels, and even with a loss of seats in 2020 a government in 2025 is certainly attainable with May likely to lose some popularity and labour being led by someone halfway competent

But 2015 was a bad defeat. And the purpose of the Labour Party is to form Labour governments. Yeah there's no existential threat to the Labour Party but that doesn't mean the present situation isn't absolutely appalling.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

And the purpose of the Labour Party is to form Labour governments.

Careful, you'll #trigger Corbyn.

[Phony Moderate]

And the purpose of the Labour Party is to form Labour governments.

Careful, you'll #trigger Corbyn.

IIRC the most recent YouGov poll showed that Corbyn's supporters are more confident that Corbyn could lead Labour to victory than Smith's supporters are that Smith could.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's just Pauline Kael syndrome, but sure that 'politics isn't about winning elections' thing is the preserve of the man who runs Momentum rather than its members.

[Blair]

The Smith Campaign is an 'ABC' campaign- to tell with an anecdote Smith got the least amount of applause in his speech I saw when he was saying how bad Iraq was, and how we need a war powers act.

The majority of people I talk to who are volunteering etc admit that we can't win. True point about canvassing; as someone who has canvassed for last two years it's the same old faces every time. I mean I'll turn up to CLP meetings to have some debate but I can't go doorknocking telling people to vote Labour when they're lead by Corbyn

 

[politicallefty]

The membership is not a hivemind. It also isn't a constant: people come and come and this changes its political complexion. By this time next year I anticipate absurd nationwide branch stacking by all factions. Joy.

Yeah, I know that, but I was basically referring the general consensus of Labour thought or is the party that divided? To use this country as analogy, in the Democratic primary, I think the fact that Hillary Clinton was a strong establishment and popular figure in the party understated the left-ward shift over the past several years. She was ultimately forced to the left. Against almost anyone else (save Vice President Biden), it's more than likely that Bernie Sanders would have won the nomination. I don't the Democratic electorate was so divided in terms of thought as it was in terms of approach. It seems like the Labour membership is in a similar dilemma. There is no popular and strong establishment type running against the more revolutionary type. I realize that's an oversimplication, but would you say that's a fair analysis?

But 2015 was a bad defeat. And the purpose of the Labour Party is to form Labour governments. Yeah there's no existential threat to the Labour Party but that doesn't mean the present situation isn't absolutely appalling.

Personally, I think perceived existential threats to major parties are almost always nonsense. However, I would say Scottish Independence would be a pretty serious threat to the Labour Party. While it's true that Blair managed to win a majority of seats in England all three times, Labour did lose the popular vote in England in 2005. How many of those Blair seats are nothing but far-fetched dreams today? (Even Tony Blair's own seat almost certainly voted Leave.)

I don't think Labour losing last year was nearly as bad as the fact that the Conservatives won a Majority Government just out of England and their almost complete decimation in Scotland. If the Tories had fell short of a majority with Labour within 20-40 seats, I think the loss could have been tolerated as just the Conservatives having run a superior campaign. I don't know what the answer is, but I'm quite certain it isn't Corbyn.

[Blair]

To reply to politically lefty.

To give a comparison Hillary Clinton is to strain an analogy similar to Gordon Brown (although he was much more popular in 2007, than she was in 2015) If Brown faced John McDonnell back in 2007 (John didn't get enough MP's to get on the ballot) then that would be equal to the Democrats in 2016- basically the entire clout of the Part (elected officials, donors, outside groups etc) backing the person who've been talked about as the next leader since they got passed over (Brown in 1994, Clinton in 2008)

For my own comparison the Democratic Primaries seem a lot calmer than the Labour leadership this year- which has been extremely hostile. The similarity could be that Sanders did a lot better with people who weren't democrats/benefited from same day registration in the way that Corbyn did well last summer with the £3 membership.

I disagree lastly about the need for a 'strong establishment' candidate; the only 3/4 I could think of who could run- Hillary Benn, Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Alan Johnson would all have lost for Iraq.

 

[Slow Learner]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/11/owen-smith-labour-should-seek-british-return-to-eu-if-brexit-means-tory-austerity

This is the last straw for me. I just can't.

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/11/owen-smith-labour-should-seek-british-return-to-eu-if-brexit-means-tory-austerity

This is the last straw for me. I just can't.

The case that Corbyn is more electable than Smith gets stronger by the day.

[Slow Learner]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/11/owen-smith-labour-should-seek-british-return-to-eu-if-brexit-means-tory-austerity

This is the last straw for me. I just can't.

The case that Corbyn is more electable than Smith gets stronger by the day.

Both of these candidates are just plain awful.

I'd take Andy Burnham over either of them. Bloody hell, I'd take David Miliband over either of them, that's how bad it is.

[bore]

Come on guys, there's no need to lose your heads over this. I don't think running on a policy of "IF everything has gone to pot and Britain is a dystopian wasteland in 2020 because of Brexit THEN we should try to rejoin the EU" is going to guarantee a landslide for the tories. Smith is by no means a great candidate, but it's not like he just announced Labour should campaign in favour of murdering kittens.

Anyway this pretty sums up my view of this election: