Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[Famous Mortimer]

I assume the consensus is that if Corby makes it on the ballot he will win.

There's actually real uncertainty as to what might happen. Particularly as there's an ongoing influx of new members, most of which are unlikely to be pro him.

Why would there be an influx of new members and why on Earth would they be expected to be anti-Corbyn?

[Famous Mortimer]

Presumably Corbyn and his 40 loyal MPs would get to keep the official Labour name. It would be the majority who would have to break away. Don't know what would they do. All run as Independent Labour? Try to form a party? Re-form the SDP? Team up with the Lib Dems and reform the goddamn Alliance? Anyway, I definitely think the splitters would win more seats, if only because they would have most incumbents. Also, obviously, they would be better positioned ideologically to win swing seats.

[Famous Mortimer]

I think the best thing that could happen would be for Corbyn to step down and enthusiastically back John McDonnell. McDonnell is basically the same as Corbyn on economics with the added benefit of having never been caught on tape praising Hamas. He could keep all of Corbyn's parliamentary support, probably hold on to a large chunk of his popular support, and hopefully win over some of the soft left and Old Labour MPs who only recently abandoned Corbyn.

Unfortunately it appears Corbyn would rather take the party down with him.

[Famous Mortimer]

Why would there be an influx of new members and why on Earth would they be expected to be anti-Corbyn?

Because there is one and because they seem to be.

SAUCE PLS

[Famous Mortimer]

It's funny how Jfern sounds even less right when he talks about UK politics; the idea that Corbyn is loyal to the party is shocking, considering he's spend the last 40 years opposing every single labour leader.

John Mcdonnell despite being seen as a more competent leader would be easier to bear in a leadership challenge- he'd need 37 signatures ( a stupid rule saying that you need 50 to trigger a leadership challenge,  but after that you only need 37) However JM is like Ken Livingstone, Dianne Abbott in that he's a acid tongued lefty- called for the Lynching of a tory MP, said he wanted to go back in time and kill Thatcher, praised IRA etc.

I want Tom Watson to challenge, as he is the only person who could beat Corbyn in my view. I'm hearing murmurings that the Trade Unions are not actually behind Corbyn- they're merely supporting him at the moment.

If Corbyn resigns it will be today- the SNP are trying to become the official opposition in the House of Commons ( as Labour don't have a full front bench, and have publicly declared they have no confidence in their leader) If the Whips all resign, trade unions tell him to go and JM team start to push back I expect Corbyn may quit tonight.

That will be hilarious, I wonder will happen if the SNP ran candidates outside Scotland

No one is proposing that. Quebec Bloc was Official Opposition in Canada in the 90s without ever running outside Quebec.

Although there is precedent of the Irish Nationalist Party holding seats in England. Again though, the SNP wasn't even considering that. They just want the platform being Official Opposition provides.

[Famous Mortimer]

Why would the establishment pick Eagle over Watson? They need union support, which Watson could provide, and Eagle is tainted by her vote for the Iraq War.

Another triumph of identity politics.

[Famous Mortimer]

I feel like the Blairites (actual Blairites, not just people to the right of Corbyn) are defensively backing Eagle just because she's getting heat for the Iraq War.

[Famous Mortimer]

Didn't most Labour MPs vote for the Iraq War? I thought party discipline was the rule on this kind of stuff.

Yes, although there was a very big rebellion. Eagle was a minister at the time. But (bluntly) all of the people for whom this is a big deal would be voting for the Hard Left candidate anyway.

It was a crime against humanity. The fact that mainstream Labour people "don't care" reflects badly on them, not on the people who do care. Maybe if mainstream Labour people cared a bit more, they wouldn't now be in the position of having to fight off Trotskyites, homeopaths, and Hamas sympathizes for control of their party.

[Famous Mortimer]

It was a crime against humanity.

You're usually a right-wing Democrat, and yet this is the issue where you feel the need to embrace loony left rhetoric on? Weird.

this being the time the US and the UK invaded a country for no reason and needlessly killed tens of thousands of people, at least, and paved the way for the rise of ISIS.

Why in God's name is anyone on the left acting like opposing this is a fringe issue all of the sudden?

Again, if you don't think the Iraq War was a big deal, you are directly responsible for the rise of Jeremy Corbyn.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm geneuinely starting to believe the labour party will split,
I dont think its a problem caused by Corbyn but he's definitely not helping,

There is a huge difference between working class and affluent middle class labour voters. I read an article in the guardian lately about the working class not sharing the progressive values London labour voters have

Key points:
-Cobynites aren't appealing to enough people and blairites are turning the working class off,
-Blairites are toxic partly due to Iraq and not to forget its a wider problem social democrats are facing across europe.  

Interestingly enough, watching Angela Eagle this morning at Andrew Niel, she couldn't identify a single difference between her policies and corbyn polices and she was regarting voting for Iraq war,
If we assume she wins the membership vote, and she carry on with most of Corbyn polices, things wont change! Blairite will  not be satisfied.

Labour crises will continue, it looks like the 80s all over again. Social democracts are in crises.

But both factions in the current fight are mixed. Corbyn backs economic policies the unions and working class like, but he's actually more socially liberal than the socially liberal wing you're talking about.

[Famous Mortimer]

Hear there are going to be hustings between Eagle and Smith today in the PLP to see who faces Corbyn.

As I said before it all comes down to 'GBs v TB's' again. If Watson backs Smith then there's no way I can see Angela winning

What does GBs vs TBs mean?

[Famous Mortimer]

We could have ran Clive Lewis or Lisa Nandy against JC and we'd still face criticism- they support JC so they look for anything to attack them their opponent. The top 5 things I've heard from day 1 of phone banking

-'If Owen wanted to be leader why didn't he run in 2015?'

- 'I just don't know anything about Owen, but I know that Corbyn is honest/perfect/credible'

- 'Owen hasn't been an MP long enough'

- 'I support democracy'

- 'I don't like JC's policies, he's a weak leader but I just have to support Jeremy''

Most common criticism I hear of him is his ties to big Pharma.

[Famous Mortimer]

What's wrong with questioning how Corbyn voted? The EU seems to be the one issue that divides Corbyn and his base.

[Famous Mortimer]

Sam Kriss is pretty terrible in general. He mostly writes clickbait-y articles for Jacobin about how "Suicide Squad is a metaphor for neo-liberalism" or things like that.