Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[jaichind]

I assume the consensus is that if Corby makes it on the ballot he will win.  Especially when post-Brexit polling for LAB is not that bad.

[jaichind]

What is the cut-off date for someone to pay 3 pounds to be an registered supporter and be able to vote in the upcoming race.  If the Corbyn vote of 2015 were composed of far left radicals each paying 3 pounds to vote for him, then why doesn't the 140 LAB MPs just each pay 3000 pounds to sign up 1000 each anti-Corbyn voters and they can swamp Corbyn in the upcoming race.  3000 pounds sounds small when compared to being creamed by the CON in the upcoming race if we are to believe these 140 LAB MPs.

[jaichind]

Jeremy Corbyn Supported by Labour Party Members Across UK
By Joe Nerssessian
June 29 (Press Association) -- Jeremy Corbyn has been backed to continue as Labour leader by party members across the UK including those in the constituency of his rumoured challenger.
The signs of support come as research emerged revealing that eight out of 10 members who joined the party since he was elected would back him in a leadership challenge.
The study, conducted in May by Queen Mary University of London and the University of Sussex, also found 64% of members would reaffirm their support for the embattled leader.
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That was May.  It might have changed since. 

[jaichind]

How much of this conflict is about the unfinished resolution over Tony Blair's legacy and how to judge him as LAB leader.  I suspect a lot of it is.

[jaichind]

Labour Members Would Back Corbyn in Ballot 50%-47%: YouGov Poll

[jaichind]

Labour Members Would Back Corbyn in Ballot 50%-47%: YouGov Poll

Of course Corbyn only won around 50% of LAB members back in 2015.  It was Registered supporters   and Affiliated supporters he cleaned up on. This poll seems to indicate he is about where he was back in 2015 when it comes to LAB members.

[jaichind]

60,000 New Supporters Join the Labour Party in the Wake of a Plot to Remove Jeremy Corbyn
Friday, July 1, 2016 04:13 AM
by Kate McCann and Senior Political Correspondent
(Telegraph) -- Tens of thousands of new members have joined the Labour party to head off a plot to remove Jeremy Corbyn, sources close to the leader have revealed.

Labour sources claimed that 60,000 new members have flooded to join the party in the last seven days.

20,000 have been checked and over half are thought to have joined to support Mr Corbyn in "a historic shift" to prevent a leadership challenge by Labour MPs.

[jaichind]

Defeated Labour Rebels Admit 'It's Finished' as Jeremy Corbyn Refuses to Resign as Leader
Wednesday, July 6, 2016 04:29 PM
by Kate McCann and Senior Political Correspondent
(Telegraph) -- Labour rebels are in retreat after admitting that Jeremy Corbyn cannot be removed and would "win easily" if a leadership election is triggered.

One senior Labour MP said: "It's finished" as it emerged that lengthy talks between union bosses and Tom Watson, the party's deputy leader, had failed to find a solution to the deadlock.

MPs have now pinned their hopes on a challenge by Angela Eagle , despite many believing that she will not beat Mr Corbyn because of his support among members.

It follows weeks of stalemate between the Labour leader's office and MPs who want to see Mr Corbyn step down without having to trigger a leadership campaign.

One senior MP told The Telegraph: "It's finished. He will win easily in a second contest if he is on the ballot, it's everything we wanted to avoid."

They added: "He is losing support of the membership by the day, there is no doubt about that, but they just sign up new members to replace them. He is Teflon in that sense."

Another Labour source admitted that Mr Corbyn has "dug his heels in" and "isn't going anywhere", adding: "It's grim."

MPs had mounted a campaign to remove the Labour leader after he sacked Hilary Benn as shadow foreign secretary following the EU referendum.

In the following week almost every shadow minister in Mr Corbyn's top team resigned and a vote of no confidence in the leader won the support of over 80 per cent of MPs who voted.

However Mr Corbyn and his allies, including John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, have refused to back down and allow a new leader to be appointed, citing the mandate he won from Labour voters in September.

A Labour MP told The Telegraph: "There are more talks planned, but when one side's red line is that Jeremy stays in post and the other side says he has to go, it is impossible to find a compromise. It's done.

"It's no good. It's possible that the PLP would consider some kind of executive role for Jeremy if he were to stand aside as leader but his team just won't consider that option, they know where the power lies."

However another said there was still hope that Ms Eagle could beat Mr Corbyn in a campaign by motivating a "groundswell" of support following the Brexit vote.

They said: "Jeremy and his team don't care about the public, they don't care about opposing this Government. Angela is the best hope now and people are prepared for that fight."

Follow the latest Telegraph News

-0- Jul/06/2016 20:29 GMT

[jaichind]

In a strange way, given the current topic of the Iraq War,  I actually back Corbyn for now.  Even as my positions are on the Far Right and opposite of Corbyn's world view in every way, on the issue of the Iraq War I always saw eye-to-eye with Corbyn and was negative on Blair-Bush on this issue from the start.  Hope he makes it, for now.

[jaichind]

I am confused by

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They added: "He is losing support of the membership by the day, there is no doubt about that, but they just sign up new members to replace them. He is Teflon in that sense."
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Why cannot the anti-Corbyn just bring in their own supporters and sign them up as members so they can vote against Corbyn if it comes to a membership vote?  This argument sounds like an excuse.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Corbyn would beat rivals Angela Eagle and Owen Smith by margins of more than 20 percentage points, a YouGov poll of party members for The Times found.
54% of those surveyed said Corbyn is first choice for leader versus 21% for Eagle and 15% for Smith
55% said Corbyn doing good job, up 4 points in two weeks

[jaichind]

Assuming accuracy then this tells us nothing new; he's vulnerable (55% approval for a party leader amongst members is kind of sh!t) but beating him is not going to be easy. Will depend on who is nominated and how the campaign goes.

Yes.  It seems that Owen and Eagle will most likely make a deal for the stronger of the two to take on Corbyn 1-on-1.  The same poll has  Corbyn 58 Eagle 34 and   Corbyn 56 Smith 34.  It seems like   Corbyn is getting his approval numbers which could go down in a contested battle.  55-56 might be   Corbyn's cap.

[jaichind]

If  Corbyn wins then I think the PLP should just accept that in next election LAB will be led by  Corbyn  which would most likely mean defeat.  But after that  Corbyn will step down and PLP/LAB can start afresh. Anything other attempt to bring down  Corbyn would just mean a post- general election defeat recovery is just that much harder because so much bad blood would have been spilled. 

[jaichind]

According to twitter there are 183,541 registered supporters who signed up. That's a solid £4.6 million for the party.

I assume signed up means paying the one time £25 fee to become a “registered supporter”? Are all of them people who joined before Jan 2016?  I wonder which side this expansion of the electorate will help?

[jaichind]

Poll Boost for Jeremy Corbyn in Labour Leadership Battle
By Jack Maidment
August 31 (Press Association) -- Jeremy Corbyn has a 24 point lead over Owen Smith in the Labour leadership contest, according to a new poll.
A YouGov survey for The Times of those entitled to vote in the contest puts the current Labour leader on 62% with Mr Smith trailing on 38%.
Mr Corbyn received just shy of 60% of the vote when he was elected to the job in September 2015.
The new poll is likely to give Mr Corbyn's campaign a boost as the fight for votes continues.
However, it will do little to assuage the concerns of the 172 Labour MPs who backed a no-confidence motion in Mr Corbyn -a move which ultimately led to Mr Smith's challenge.
The poll puts Mr Corbyn ahead in all three groups of people who are eligible to take part in the vote.
It found that 52% of full members intend to back Mr Corbyn compared to 40% for Mr Smith.
Meanwhile, among registered supporters it was 70% to 25% in favour of Mr Corbyn.
Mr Corbyn also has the backing of the union affiliates by 54% to 33%.
An estimated 640,000 members and supporters have been tasked with choosing between the pair.
Voting in the contest is already under way with a winner to be announced on September 24.

[jaichind]

According to YouGov it seems Corbyn's victory came from those members that joined after May 2015, especially those that joined after Sept 2015 when Corbyn first became leader.  It seem that Corbyn won the battle of signing up new members.

[jaichind]

It seems to me that PLP should just accept that unless May completely messed up LAB will just have to lose the next election and then Corbyn can be go and they can start from scratch.  To have leadership contests every year will only lead to greater splintering at the LAB base and make the next general election defeat even more catastrophic.