Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[Blair]

It's funny how Jfern sounds even less right when he talks about UK politics; the idea that Corbyn is loyal to the party is shocking, considering he's spend the last 40 years opposing every single labour leader.

John Mcdonnell despite being seen as a more competent leader would be easier to bear in a leadership challenge- he'd need 37 signatures ( a stupid rule saying that you need 50 to trigger a leadership challenge,  but after that you only need 37) However JM is like Ken Livingstone, Dianne Abbott in that he's a acid tongued lefty- called for the Lynching of a tory MP, said he wanted to go back in time and kill Thatcher, praised IRA etc.

I want Tom Watson to challenge, as he is the only person who could beat Corbyn in my view. I'm hearing murmurings that the Trade Unions are not actually behind Corbyn- they're merely supporting him at the moment.

If Corbyn resigns it will be today- the SNP are trying to become the official opposition in the House of Commons ( as Labour don't have a full front bench, and have publicly declared they have no confidence in their leader) If the Whips all resign, trade unions tell him to go and JM team start to push back I expect Corbyn may quit tonight.

[Blair]

What I've heard is that Corbyn wants to leave but his 'team' aka Seamus Milne wants him to stay. The man is human, and he's literally having the entire might of the party smashed against him.

I expect his resignation tonight

[Blair]

This will push me to either alcoholism or being on high blood pressure tablets.

I'm hearing now Owen Smith will run- 2010 intake, from the soft left. 1000% stronger than Eagle

[Blair]

Corbyn is getting really ridiculous, I'm started to regret ever voting for him.
We should've voted for Burnham

The notorious blairite?

[Blair]

Corbyn is getting really ridiculous, I'm started to regret ever voting for him.
We should've voted for Burnham

The notorious blairite?

Burnham was hardly a blairite,
Initially, I thought about voting for him but I liked what Corbyn was saying  

Even as someone who worked for Andy; and who voted for him Andy ran in 2010 as the most right wing candidate.

 http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/06/the-humiliation-that-turned-andy-burnham-from-blairite-to-union-man/

[Blair]

The polling shows there's been a massive shift in the last month alone.

Corbyn has fell from 64-33 in a race, to 50-47. That's not good

[Blair]

At this point, is it fair to say that the Labour base is about as out of touch with the British public than the GOP base is to the American one?

Yes- I've been meaning to write a very long blog post on it for Labourlist. We share the 5 big problems...

+ Needing to run to the far left to win the leadership- namely being anti-war (No air strikes in Syria, Iraq and deffo not supporting 2003 Iraq),
+ A dedicated and loud online media presence of people outside the party calling people 'Blairites' in the same way that RINO was a spitting barb about 8 years ago
+Picking a leader who no-one sees as actually being able to be PM
+ Being convinced that if we just pick a more left wing person then everyone will come out and vote for us
+Being deluded

[Blair]

At this point, is it fair to say that the Labour base is about as out of touch with the British public than the GOP base is to the American one?

Yes- I've been meaning to write a very long blog post on it for Labourlist. We share the 5 big problems...

+ Needing to run to the far left to win the leadership- namely being anti-war (No air strikes in Syria, Iraq and deffo not supporting 2003 Iraq),
+ A dedicated and loud online media presence of people outside the party calling people 'Blairites' in the same way that RINO was a spitting barb about 8 years ago
+Picking a leader who no-one sees as actually being able to be PM
+ Being convinced that if we just pick a more left wing person then everyone will come out and vote for us
+Being deluded

Regardless of whether that assessment is right or wrong, you need to appeal to the centre ground of the Labour membership to win a Labour leadership election. Liz Kendall didn't even attempt to do that, despite her constant ramblings about the need to appeal to the centre ground of the general electorate. Blair, to be fair to him, did make an effort to do that (at least in 1994) and so did GOP relative moderates such as McCain and Romney to the GOP primary electorate.

As is well documented that center ground is now the soft left

[Blair]

Apparently the leadership challenge is being pushed back to next Tuesday-Wednesday..... this is starting to remind of the old Brown coups that well led to nothing.

Hope is that Corbyn will realize how difficult it is to run an entire operation (he needs 150 MP's to run the various shadow departments/Whips office etc) and will give up after his Chilcot statement.

[Blair]

https://twitter.com/Owen4Labour

interesting?

[Blair]

How many British posters here on the left are being bombarded with SAVE CORBYN notifications on facebook?

I just got back from a CLP meeting where our MP was heckled, I was called a racist and Momentum turned up in force... if there is a leadership race this summer (I assume by Owen Jones) then it's going to be very ugly.

Worth noting (I may be optimistic) The YouGov Poll, and the Unite Poll both make for very good reading- considering the media narrative is that Corbyn is extremely popular with members, when in fact he's marginally popular. The only problem is that even if we get the entire 40% anti-Corbyn vote from last year we still need to get 10% of his own base (which is possible) whilst offsetting any loses from the massive turnout he'll cause.

Best hope is that Watson will lead the peace talks this weekend, and Corbyn will go

[Blair]

Sooo the Times had a very good article up (paywalled sadly) saying that Corbyn had a wobble on Wednesday and almost resigned... it's been briefed what his exit plan was making me think his team are starting to negotiate- he wants a Shadow Cabinet Position, John Mcdonnell to stay as Chancellor and a Corbynite on the ballot.... so he basically wants to keep control of the party.

Interesting side aspect- the 'TB-GB's' the name for the Blair/Brownite rivalry very much still exists- the Blairites have gathered around Eagle, and the Brownites around Owen Smith. Does it ever end?

[Blair]

Heard someone in the pub (Craft Beer pub which explains why they're talking up Corbyn) saying it's a Blairite plot to distract from Chilcott.

I still struggle to see how Angela Eagle is going to run against Corbyn with an Iraq war vote hanging over her head, and a rather weak performance last year in the Deputies race (along with her bottling her run since thursday)

However, as I've said 100 times the winds seem to be shifting with this talk of a peace treaty- its like Germany in 1945, they must know that any peace will mean the end of their glorious leader

[Blair]

Eagle has a history of, er, hawkishness (ho ho ho); she was also in the minority of Labour MPs who voted for action in Syria last year. What's her position on Trident btw?

Think she's Pro-Trident- I know her sister Maria got sacked in January for it.

It's remarkable for Labour nerds that Eagle was the 'left wing' choice last year in the deputy leader, who ran with Union Backing and as being anti-austerity. I always wonder how well a hard left candidate could have done last year- although Tom Watson hoovered up the left wing vote (much like Sadiq did in London) Tl;DR... the soft left can win.

I hear JC was going to call Blair a war criminal at a Rally afterwards, but Blair has briefed he'll sue people who say political leaders who say that. Maybe Corbyn will say it in the House?

[Blair]

Out of interest to other UK posters with connections to the party- how's your feeling about the mood in your CLPs re Corbyn?

[Blair]

FTR Corbyn was part of the pacifist left that has existed in the PLP since the 30's. The irony is that Corbyn voted against the whip something like 300 times over his career.

This sums it up

https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/637637615475404800/photo/1

[Blair]

As an outsider looking in I've been following this with interest, but I have a few questions about the PLP strategy.

I'm not sure exactly what they expected to happen. Did the PLP think they could get Corbyn to resign as leader without defeating him in a leadership challenge? From the loyalist point of view, elements of the PLP have been undermining Corbyn since his victory through constant leaks to journalists like George Eaton, etc. Furthermore, resigning before the NEC elections and before they have a chance to implement internal party reforms (along the lines of the Bennite/CLPD agenda) would be a massive lost opportunity for the left faction, possibly consigning them to the fringe of the party for the foreseeable future.

I don't know, it just seems like it should have been obvious to the PLP that Corbyn and his faction have everything to gain (from their point of view) by clinging to power as long as possible. Although, if it was orchestrated in this way to bring down his appeal among the membership that could make sense.

Yes- the assumption in political thinking is that a Shadow Cabinet Walkout of more than 50% will always sink a leader. It was talked about last November with Miliband (with both Burnham and Cooper ready to strike)

The Shadow Cabinet walk out- namely the fact that he lost 50 odd ministers was to show that people who worked with him have no faith in him. The fact that people like Lisa Nandy, Nia Griffiths and Owem Smith resigned showed that even the left of the Party has lost faith in him.

The point is that Corbyn cannot continue as leader- he's got an 81 year with two shadow Cabinet jobs and still lacks an Shadow Attorney General, Business Secretary... (and that's ignoring the 100 odd juniour ministers he needs)

The likes of Hunt, Woodcock and other Progress MP's have been briefing against Corbyn, but that's the game. Corbyn's own team have been briefing some pretty crazy stuff in the last week.

I'm skeptical of reforms, as we saw Conference last year there's still Corbyn supporters (e.g the Unions) who've opposed the measures pushed by the Bennite faction. I'm not at all an expert on the NEC/Internal Party stuff but I honestly think this was the best time for a coup

[Blair]

Well the Milibank Tendency has ruled the party effectively since 1983- despite my own rants about the hard left there's never have had any control over the party (bar for now) I mean the 'milibank' tendency- whatever that is, will always exist in some form- even if the party's intake becomes slightly more left wing ( the next leader will be anti-austerity) they'll still be drawn from the ex-SPAD crew

[Blair]

and why is Andy Burnham of all people still serving in the Shadow Cabinet?

Because he has as much backbone as this lovely animal

[Blair]

Jokes aside he's running for Mayor of Greater Manchester, and is facing a Primary next summer. He's already lost the support of the unions who've backed a local bloke, and wants the support of the Corbynites.

As someone who worked with Andy he places 'the party' first- often when it's clearly not in anyone's interest- such as when he refused to rebel last summer against the Welfare bill which cost us about 10% of the vote.

And of the 36- about 10/15 did it to 'expand the process' and allow a 'token lefty' on the ballot. Some MP's like Neil Coyle, Sadiq Khan, Margret Beckett and others clearly regret that.

From the others who actually supported him (rather than just nominate him) a quick look that people like Sarah Champion, Imhran Hussein and others have resigned from the Shadow Cabinet

[Blair]

On recruiting it's worth noting that Corbyn has the entire left crowd to recruit from- Greens, Socialist Workers, ex- labour voters who left during New Labour, People not Profit, etc theres literally 20 groups that run on the basis of being more left wing that the Labour Party.

These people tend to be inspired by Corbyn, easier to reach on social media, politically active etc. Last sumemr we tried to recruit Hillsborough families to vote for Andy, and we got about 2,000 people signed up for that purpose.

From a campaign point it was impossible for people like Cooper to get people to sign up, when you're running on a rather bland centre left platform. The only chance this Summer is a 'Saving Labour' campaign where we try and recruit.

Corbyn is a Pacifist, him being right on Iraq doesn't make him qualified to be PM

[Blair]

Just a hunch but I feel that Owen Smith is getting played by Watson/Unite here.

Angela was suppose to declare last Thursday, then the old Brownite enforces (Bryant, and others) started briefing that Smith had enough nominations so Eagle pushed back her launch. Now Smith is taking advice from Watson, and pushing back the launch even further.

Tom Watson wants to be leader, and that could well be a condition of the Unite Agreement- JC steps down, Watson becomes leader with John Mcdonnell staying as Chancellor.

It's been to quiet for me to think that nothing is being planned by Unite

[Blair]

Just a hunch but I feel that Owen Smith is getting played by Watson/Unite here.

Angela was suppose to declare last Thursday, then the old Brownite enforces (Bryant, and others) started briefing that Smith had enough nominations so Eagle pushed back her launch. Now Smith is taking advice from Watson, and pushing back the launch even further.

Tom Watson wants to be leader, and that could well be a condition of the Unite Agreement- JC steps down, Watson becomes leader with John Mcdonnell staying as Chancellor.

It's been to quiet for me to think that nothing is being planned by Unite

If the sane wing of Labour keeps playing these stupid little games, Corbyn is probably safe until 2025 at least.

Oh of course- this is the first issue to unite the 'TB-GB's', and they've already started fighting over it

[Blair]

Could it get any worse for Labour at this point? This is just sad to watch.

Always
 

[Blair]

Whilst Eagle has some rather lacking traits  (voting for Iraq, not a big hitter) I reckon that even if Owen Smith ran as Leader as a genuine left winger (which he is) he'd still be labelled a blairite. I just hope, as always that the loud and vocal Corbynistas on social media don't represent the party.

I really don't want the stress of another leadership contest though; although I'll feel responsible to get involved with the Eagle campaign.

Worth noting for all: If Corbyn wins but loses the 'membership' and 'affiliated vote' then we'll be in for a very interesting time. I just don't understand what Corbyn expects to happen- you don't become PM after having a leadership vote trigged against you as  LOTO