Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[parochial boy]

Robert Peston apparently tweeted that 60% of the 13k new Labour members have done it to support Corbyn, as in, through the Momentum website.

I have to say, I voted for Corbyn back in August, but I won't be voting for him in the upcoming contest. Part of being worth voting for is having some ability to reach out beyond your hard core and actually sell a message.

That, and actually give a sh!t about things I find important.

[parochial boy]

Labour Members Would Back Corbyn in Ballot 50%-47%: YouGov Poll

Of course Corbyn only won around 50% of LAB members back in 2015.  It was Registered supporters   and Affiliated supporters he cleaned up on. This poll seems to indicate he is about where he was back in 2015 when it comes to LAB members.

Well, not entirely, bear in mind that a lot of those registered supporters and other Corbynistas subsequently joined the Labour party, so you would expect the Labour party membership to be a good deal more pro-Corbyn than it was back in August.

Some of the other questions are pretty telling as well, his approval has fallen from +45% to +3%, which is pretty dramatic, and over half of members are now saying he should step down before the next elections.

tabs are here if anyone is interested.

[parochial boy]

As I recall Eagle was brownite and definitely not a Blairite, that's weird

Yeah but Smith is to her left you see.

Which is basically irrelevant, seeing as to the Corbyn crowd, anyone who comes forward to stand against Corbyn is a treacherous right wing Blairite who should go join the Conservative party...

[parochial boy]

Out of interest to other UK posters with connections to the party- how's your feeling about the mood in your CLPs re Corbyn?

I've just been to my first ever Labour party meeting, admittedly a branch rather than CLP one, although I did manage to get nominated as a delegate to the CLP "GC", which apparently gives me the right to vote on CLP matters. Presumably down to me being on of the only people under the age of 70 in the room.

Any way, the mood was fairly mixed, a a few Corbyn loyalists, some who had gone off him and some who opposed him, although it was all fairly good natured.

There was, however, a lot of anger from both supporters and opponents that the CLP had been more or less "forced" into adopting a motion of no confidence in Corbyn, as a result of a last minute resolution being tacked on to the CLP meeting, which was apparently pretty heated.

[parochial boy]

The thing with the current leadership turmoil, though, seems to be between one bunch of social liberal metropolitan types and another. Only Corbyn's crowd are consistently to the left on all issues.

Nobody involved seems genuinely like the person who is going to win back labours core vote. Corbyn's views on immigration and foreign policy are completely out of sorts with disaffected working class voters, and Eagle, in the public perception at least, comes from exactly the same tradition that was responsible for betraying working class voters in the first place.

Clearly, Corbyn has shown that he is either incapable of winners and election, or doesn't even want to, but a lot of the party seems to have misjudged where labour's woes are coming from.

[parochial boy]

So between Labour leadership elections, General elections and referendums, this will be the 5th time I vote in under 18 months. With a potential 6th on the way.

Anybody else feel like Weimar Germany?

[parochial boy]

Theresa is a hell of a lot more beatable than Cameron; that and she could potentially lose all her credibility in the event of a bad Brexit outcome, or prolonged recession.

[parochial boy]

I was impressed by Owen's speech setting out his policies the other day. Lots of things I really support - like a wealth tax and worker's councils. What is sad though, is despite his policies being largely similar to Corbyn's (the difference that Smith has policies, and Corbyn has a protest movement), Smith is still a Blairite, right winger.

I'm starting to wonder what actually counts as left wing for the most hardcore of Corbyn's support.

[parochial boy]

They should see if tony blair wants to make a comeback lol

Far, far more people would support expelling Blair from the party than his return as leader. And I'm referring to the people in the PLP as opposed to the wider membership.

I'm joking but it's funny considering he is the only person to lead labor to victory since the 1970's

Pretty much anyone could have done so in 1997.

Which is what everyone was saying in 1990, about 1992.

Blair's achievement in 1997 wasn't winning- it was winning in Seats that hadn't elected Labour MP's since 1945, and will probably never again.

He was also a major catalyst in both the state the Labour party is in now, and in the massive disillusionment with politics that occurred under his premiership.

I mean, a huge element of Labour struggles with the working classes, possibly even a cause of their major defection to UKIP and to voting to leave the EU, was Blair's liberalism - both economic and social liberalism.

[parochial boy]

I just sent in my ballot, Owen Smith in the end.

And re the train thing, all Corbyn needed to do would be to take any commuter train around London or Manchester at peak hours to have made his point, how hard could it be?

Although uber-parasite branson getting involved in partisan politics in this way, at this particular time, is pretty despicable tbh. The East Coast mainline has become significantly worse since it was re-privatised.

[parochial boy]

May's record at the home office doesn't exactly scream "competent".

And here first major policy being to bring back grammar schools doesn't exactly scream "sane" either.

[parochial boy]

What I don't think the Corbynistas fully realise is even if the Tories do screw up Brexit Labour has an Achilles heel that it is almost impossible to overcome, that is Corbyn's past. Corbyn, McDonnell and the people around them have some very unpleasant skeletons in their closet

The last Prime Minister was once a prick in a tuxedo with his dick inside a dead pig's mouth. I think skeletons in the closet can come and go...

And let's not forget his jaunt to apartheid South Africa

[parochial boy]

*If* those who say that Corbyn's low energy campaign lost Remain the referendum are right and *if* he secretly wanted/voted for Brexit, then he's arguably the most successful and impactful Labour leader ever, with the possible exception of Attlee.

Didn't something like 70% of Labour supporters vote Remain?  How much more could have a stronger pro-EU campaign obtained, realistically?

There was some opinion polling before the election which indicated that 50% of Labour supporters weren't even aware of the Labour party's position.

Anecdotally, I know of at least two people who voted leave because they trusted their MP, who supported the leave campaign. Their MP was Alan Johnson, noted remain campaigner.

Incidentally, it was about 64% of Labour supporters who voted remain, if as many as 70% had, it probably would have swung the result.