Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[YL]

If Corbyn actually still has the support of Labour members, he has every right to stay. I hope Labour members know better than that, though.

I would hope they want to actually be able to win a general election at some point in the not too distant future.

[YL]

What do these people think they're doing?  Because what they are doing is helping the Tories remain in power until 2025, if not longer.

I think the best case scenario at the moment is that the NEC allows Corbyn onto the ballot and that he loses fair and square without any court battles.  But I'm not feeling very optimistic.

[YL]

At least this way there's a chance of him losing in a way which only his more moronic supporters will be able to complain about.

[YL]

I can see why they might want to have a cut off date for membership to be allowed to vote (otherwise it was in danger of turning into a contest between "Momentum" and "Saving Labour" to see who could sign up more new members) but 12 January seems very early (I'd be pretty annoyed if I'd joined the party in that period) and it's inconsistent not to also have a cut off date for other ways of getting a vote in the election (i.e. registered supporter status and affiliated organisations).  It makes more sense for me to sign up as a registered supporter in that window than to join the party right now.

Anyway, Owen Smith is launching his challenge this morning, so at the moment there will be two non-Corbyn choices.  I think this might actually help, as it'd mean they have to be more than just "not Corbyn" but it appears like some people are trying to get one of them to drop out.

[YL]

Besides telling the PLP to wait until 2020 is pretty stupid, considering we were/are working under the assumption of a snap general election

Really? While the Tories would probably win, I don't see why they would want to risk it, considering how volatile British Politics are at the moment. The potential gain would be slim, already having a comfortable parliamentary majority and not needing to call a new election for almost four years. (I assume they could get rid of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act easily if they wished).

They don't really have a comfortable parliamentary majority if they started to have trouble with backbench discipline, and there are presumably a number of newly annoyed backbenchers.

I suspect that if it weren't for the Fixed Term Parliaments Act they'd be seriously considering going for it, hoping to take advantage of Labour's problems.  And there are ways round the Act, so it'd be complacent for Labour to assume there won't be an election until 2020.

[YL]

150,000 signed up- netting the party a fair bit of money.

I signed up my sister, and mum but they're probably the only two registered supporters who aren't voting for JC

<waves>

[YL]

I would assume that the new RSs fall into three main groups:

- People who have joined since January and want a vote (assuming they are allowed to do this).  Presumably fairly pro-Corbyn.
- Corbynistas who never got round to joining.  Obviously very pro-Corbyn.
- Left-leaning voters who want a functioning Labour party to oppose the Tories.  Generally anti-Corbyn.

I've no idea what the relative numbers of those would be.

[YL]

Can you still register as RS?

No, the deadline was yesterday.

[YL]

Corbyn is still the overwhelming favorite in the race:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/23/labour-leadership-jeremy-corbyn-more-double-support-owen-smith

What is wrong with Labour voters? Seriously.

A decent proportion of respondents in that poll (which, note, is a subsample of Labour supporters in a national poll) have probably never heard of Owen Smith or at least know very little about him.

[YL]

If it's going to happen, it'll have to involve the Lib Dems "re-splitting" into their Liberal and SDP factions, and the SDP half becoming a safe-space for non-Corbynite Labour...

The Lib Dem factions are not "Liberal" and "SDP".

[YL]

If it's going to happen, it'll have to involve the Lib Dems "re-splitting" into their Liberal and SDP factions, and the SDP half becoming a safe-space for non-Corbynite Labour...

The Lib Dem factions are not "Liberal" and "SDP".

What exactly are their factions these days?

"Labour Can't Win Here. Vote Lib Dem to keep the Tories out" and "The Tories Can't Win Here. Vote Lib Dem to keep Labour out".

More seriously, what Phony Moderate said.  The point is that both sides identify as "liberals" and neither particularly derives from the SDP, whose less "liberal" figures mostly drifted away from the Lib Dems or (in the case of David Owen) never joined the merged party in the first place.