Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An awful lot of things are not yet clear. Other than that the situation is a complete and utter mess.

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I assume the consensus is that if Corby makes it on the ballot he will win.

There's actually real uncertainty as to what might happen. Particularly as there's an ongoing influx of new members, most of which are unlikely to be pro him.

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Why would there be an influx of new members and why on Earth would they be expected to be anti-Corbyn?

Because there is one and because they seem to be.

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SAUCE PLS

Second is just anecdotal. Could be wrong.

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The soft left is where this battle will be one

As indeed has been the case with all leadership elections and deputy leadership elections since the membership was given a vote.

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Can someone well-versed in Labour politics explain to me the difference between the Soft Right and the Soft Left? I think I understand the fault lines between the soft and hard left, and between the soft right and the Kendallesque Blair fanatics, but what's really the barrier between Labour left and right? Is it rooted in specific issues, or is it mostly cultural or identity-based?

The Hard/Soft Left distinction is rooted in the politics of the 1980s; the Soft Left were those who backed Healey against Benn (or abstained) in the Deputy election, the Hard Left were those who (duh) voted for Benn. The leading figure in the Soft Left was Neil Kinnock and he formed an alliance with the Right (which by this point was almost entirely 'workerist'; the middle class element had almost all buggered off to the SDP) in order to cement his personal control over the Party with the aim of making a Labour win in a General Election feasible again. Throughout the 1980s there was a steady drip of defections from the Hard Left to the Soft Left, but the Soft Left never really organised itself as a faction (unlike the Hard Left which was organised at Westminster in the Socialist Campaign Group and in the CLPs in the Campaign for Labour Party Democracy) and has remained more of a tendency than anything else.

And the Soft Left is where you have to start in order to understand the splits on the Right; Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were both on the Soft Left when first elected but moved rightwards in response to the political turmoil (domestic and international) of the late 80s and early 90s. The same was true of most of the other leading figures in New Labour, from Blunkett to Beckett. They came to believe that the market could be used to achieve the old socialist goals and to heal the damage to the social fabric caused by Thatcherism. Because of their background on the Soft Left they were also socially liberal and they soon came to resemble (in one of Labour's greatest historical ironies) the intellectual Right that had been driven/had driven itself out of the Party in the early 80s. Disagreements between Blair and Brown over the direction of domestic and European policy saw this group fracture into the Blairites (who are grouped around the Progress organisation these days) and the technocratic grouping around Brown. The latter has often made common cause (at least at PLP level) with elements of the Soft Left; this is the best way to understand Ed Miliband's positioning. Note that (and very unusually for Labour) these are mostly 'elite' factions; they are comprised almost entirely of people who work in politics or used to. The major part of the Labour Right these days is the same 'workerist' Right (often referred to as the 'traditional Right' or the 'Old Right') as existed back in the 1980s and as has existed since the beginning of the Cold War. We're talking people who are firmly socialist, often as keen on State planning and hostile to the market as those on the Left, and frequently active trade unionists, but who are usually pro NATO, nuclear weapons and so on, and who are primarily political pragmatists. Almost all Labour members on the Right in the CLPs are like this, at least outside London. The traditional Right has always preferred organising behind closed doors which means there isn't the same laundry list of organisations that you'll find on the Hard Left: even 'Labour First' has until recently been a vehicle to get people elected to the NEC with no other real function, although this has changed of late.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently the leadership challenge is being pushed back to next Tuesday-Wednesday..... this is starting to remind of the old Brown coups that well led to nothing.

It's too far gone for that now. Largely because this is not a coup controlled by a small number (even if such a thing was clearly planned!) but an open revolt controlled by no one. Someone at some point will put themselves formally forward. Though the fact that Corbyn is no longer unbeatable amongst the membership might have (already had?) a delaying impact on announcements as it makes things suddenly seem very real.

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As I recall Eagle was brownite and definitely not a Blairite, that's weird

Yeah but Smith is to her left you see.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As I recall Eagle was brownite and definitely not a Blairite, that's weird

Yeah but Smith is to her left you see.

Which is basically irrelevant, seeing as to the Corbyn crowd, anyone who comes forward to stand against Corbyn is a treacherous right wing Blairite who should go join the Conservative party...

THIGMOO

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Didn't most Labour MPs vote for the Iraq War? I thought party discipline was the rule on this kind of stuff.

Yes, although there was a very big rebellion. Eagle was a minister at the time. But (bluntly) all of the people for whom this is a big deal would be voting for the Hard Left candidate anyway.

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I'm a currently inactive member in a hopeless constituency where the CLP is traditionally dominated by tankies so don't attend meetings...

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Today is apparently the day for meetings about meetings.

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It's clear that in terms of actual support within the PLP he's at a much lower number than those that voted against the confidence motion.

To-morrow is Chilcot Day: I suspect that things will be clearer (though Christ knows in what direction) after.

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Grauniad running with a story suggesting a more optimistic tone to the er... peace talks... than had been the case. Perhaps because the receding threat of a snap election takes pressure off all sides. But most rumours about how this is going to play out have turned false so...

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Would avoid reading much into a questionably sourced article in a Labour-hostile paper. This is more interesting...

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Just a hunch but I feel that Owen Smith is getting played by Watson/Unite here.

Angela was suppose to declare last Thursday, then the old Brownite enforces (Bryant, and others) started briefing that Smith had enough nominations so Eagle pushed back her launch. Now Smith is taking advice from Watson, and pushing back the launch even further.

Tom Watson wants to be leader, and that could well be a condition of the Unite Agreement- JC steps down, Watson becomes leader with John Mcdonnell staying as Chancellor.

It's been to quiet for me to think that nothing is being planned by Unite

I've given up even trying to think about trying to work out what's actually going on. It isn't as though public statements will tell us much in certain cases anyway...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What does Labour stand for anyway ?

Different factions have always disagreed about that. That's one reason why the Party has these periodic... episodes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Watson calls off the 'peace talks', says that significant progress made but more impossible due to intransigence by Corbyn.

Eagle to announce on Monday. Probably. Provisionally. Possibly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Owen Smith is going to sit this one out?

Still not clear what he's going to do. Or what a lot others might; suspect we'll really only be sure about anything on Monday. Other than that things are going to remain very messy...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is a huge difference between working class and affluent middle class labour voters.

That might be so but there really aren't very many of the latter. Quite a few people in jobs historically considered to be middle class but who are not at all affluent, but that's really not the same thing at all...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Even as someone who'll most likely work for her campaign I'd rather someone like Dan Jarvis, Chukka Umunna, Caroline Flint etc lead us into the next election.

Hard to be sure of anything with Jarvis but possibly, I like Flint but she's a bit too overtly factional for these days, Umunna... no. No, no, no, no, no.

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It's an old fashioned factional war, he knows where he stands when they happen even if he might have/have had reservations.

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well there are a quite a lot of affluent middle class in north london,

Yeah but they don't form the core of the Labour vote there, which is comprised of people (of whatever ethnicity) on the estates and usually working class minority voters off them. Your stereotypical Grauniad reading suburbs are capable of voting Labour but are not exactly reliable...

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Labour only holds this seat because of the peripheral estates.

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Other than the tiny gentrified bubble in the city centre (which isn't very Labour and has very low turnouts) this is one of the most deprived and working class places in the country...

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The reliably Labour parts of Oxford are (as in Cambridge) the proletarian parts, which are larger in Oxford because of the motor works.

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A depressed postindustrial city. The middle class bits mostly don't vote Labour and in the case of Gosforth (the only truly affluent part) never.

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Where Labour is strongest on the estates and in the various grotty inner city districts.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For those interested I've created a leadership bingo- 5 points every time you hear these words.

+Mandate
+Democratic
+Entyrism
+Blairitie

+Betrayal
+This Great Movement of Ours (or any related phrase)
+Unity
+Working People

It has fallen out of favour but if it does return 10 points for that 1970s classic...

+Middle Class Intellectual (i.e. as a term of abuse)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(Lib Dem never had a large traction for Jews for obvious reasons)

Apart from in local elections (and local elections only) in parts of Barnet but that's dying out (possibly literally).