Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[politicallefty]

For what its worth I've just seen the internal phone bank data from the Smith Campaign.

Corbyn 45% Smith 39% Dk: 14%

It's never good news when you release your own internals to show you down by a statistically significant margin.

I'm sorry, but I have to ask. What exactly does the Labour membership want right now? I have a pretty basic understanding of British politics, but not so much into the intricacies of leadership elections. I'm not a Blairite at all, but Corbyn seems like he'll be a disaster for Labour come election time. Provided there's no exigencies around the next election, Theresa May stands to be a very formidable leader for the Tories. I generally support Labour, but it's hard to deny that May is the strongest leader.

It also appears that I was right that UKIP's pre-Brexit numbers have at least in part gone to the Conservatives.

[politicallefty]

This election is a national disgrace.

Are you not a supporter of the Conservative Party? If I was, I would be quite excited about the next election. Theresa May will probably lead the Conservative Party to its biggest win since Margaret Thatcher. It's not hard to see how she appeals to the average person. From a political standpoint, she should call an election within the the next few months. I think she'd be a lock in a strong majority mandate for a full five years.

[politicallefty]

This election is a national disgrace.

Are you not a supporter of the Conservative Party? If I was, I would be quite excited about the next election. Theresa May will probably lead the Conservative Party to its biggest win since Margaret Thatcher. It's not hard to see how she appeals to the average person. From a political standpoint, she should call an election within the the next few months. I think she'd be a lock in a strong majority mandate for a full five years.

No, I live in Northern Ireland, and I support the SDLP. Even if I was a Tory, I'd still find this contest utterly shameful, even if it was resulting in better performances from my party.

I apologize. I assumed your signature with Theresa May implied your support.

[politicallefty]

The membership is not a hivemind. It also isn't a constant: people come and come and this changes its political complexion. By this time next year I anticipate absurd nationwide branch stacking by all factions. Joy.

Yeah, I know that, but I was basically referring the general consensus of Labour thought or is the party that divided? To use this country as analogy, in the Democratic primary, I think the fact that Hillary Clinton was a strong establishment and popular figure in the party understated the left-ward shift over the past several years. She was ultimately forced to the left. Against almost anyone else (save Vice President Biden), it's more than likely that Bernie Sanders would have won the nomination. I don't the Democratic electorate was so divided in terms of thought as it was in terms of approach. It seems like the Labour membership is in a similar dilemma. There is no popular and strong establishment type running against the more revolutionary type. I realize that's an oversimplication, but would you say that's a fair analysis?

But 2015 was a bad defeat. And the purpose of the Labour Party is to form Labour governments. Yeah there's no existential threat to the Labour Party but that doesn't mean the present situation isn't absolutely appalling.

Personally, I think perceived existential threats to major parties are almost always nonsense. However, I would say Scottish Independence would be a pretty serious threat to the Labour Party. While it's true that Blair managed to win a majority of seats in England all three times, Labour did lose the popular vote in England in 2005. How many of those Blair seats are nothing but far-fetched dreams today? (Even Tony Blair's own seat almost certainly voted Leave.)

I don't think Labour losing last year was nearly as bad as the fact that the Conservatives won a Majority Government just out of England and their almost complete decimation in Scotland. If the Tories had fell short of a majority with Labour within 20-40 seats, I think the loss could have been tolerated as just the Conservatives having run a superior campaign. I don't know what the answer is, but I'm quite certain it isn't Corbyn.

[politicallefty]

Why didn't Yvette Cooper run for leadership again? She seems like someone that could righted the ship, so to speak.

I disagree lastly about the need for a 'strong establishment' candidate; the only 3/4 I could think of who could run- Hillary Benn, Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Alan Johnson would all have lost for Iraq.

Is Iraq really that more toxic for Labour than it is for Democrats that it would derail winning leadership? That's hard to believe. Even so, none of those really have the establishment power that Hillary Clinton did running for the Democratic nomination. The only real analogy would be a popular figure that served in Blair's Cabinet that wasn't named Gordon Brown. Are they that nonexistent to the point of irrelevance?

[politicallefty]

Now I know how RINO Tom, Vosem and the others feel about the GOP.

You may disagree with her politics as a whole (and at least she's within the mainstream and has some respectable positions), but at least May is competent, sane, and will do her job well within mainstream parameters. Theresa May does seem like the centre-right mirror to a centre-left Hillary Clinton. I don't necessarily think Corbyn is a Trump of the left, but if he shared a bit more of that personality type, I honestly could see myself in the position of the #NeverTrump Republicans in a reverse scenario in the UK. Theresa May is far from the worst Conservative to lose to, but I still wouldn't want to hand a commanding Majority Government to anyone on the right.

Unless there's a big shift in public opinion over the next couple years, the Conservatives will probably be reelected with an expanded Majority. Obviously, a lot can change over the next couple years, but I don't think they change that much short of major exigent circumstances. With a strong Labour Party, it's very possible or even likely that the Tories would be denied a Majority Government. A weak Labour Party will almost certainly mean a strong and expanded Conservative Majority. I really have to wonder how much the Labour Party is underestimating somewhat like Theresa May. I think it's stupidity. I think she's the best leader for the Tories since Margaret Thatcher herself.