IL & WI Senate races: Koch brothers cancel their backing for Johnson

[Gass3268]

These are the first round of fall TV reservations:

[Xing]

Interesting that AZ, FL, and NC aren't on this list, but MO is.

[Dereich]

Probably waiting for the primary to become clearer in Florida. No point in spending millions on anti-Murphy ads if Grayson wins.

[Gass3268]

Probably waiting for the primary to become clearer in Florida. No point in spending millions on anti-Murphy ads if Grayson wins.

Or if Beruff knocks off Rubio. I wonder why we haven't had any polling on this.

[Gass3268]

Interesting that AZ, FL, and NC aren't on this list, but MO is.

I always told you so, man

LOL@thinking Climbing Maggie is beatable, though.

Not only do they think she's beatable, but they are putting the most money into NH.

[Gass3268]

Interesting that AZ, FL, and NC aren't on this list, but MO is.

I always told you so, man

LOL@thinking Climbing Maggie is beatable, though.

Not only do they think she's beatable, but they are putting the most money into NH.

Which is pretty dumb, considering that Ayotte is definitely more vulnerable than Johnson or Kirk. I'd rate NH Safe D, WI Lean D and IL Tilt D (we really need more polls for this race).

There internal polls must be showing differently.

[This account no longer in use.]

Don't be silly. Facts can never compete with the mythical Angry NH Women.

[This account no longer in use.]

If every poll shows Clinton and Hassan winning NH women by landslides, and it's true that these 'angry NH women' (or whatever pathetic little fantasy you're using now to give an excuse for Scott Brown losing) are real, wouldn't they be winning by landslides in the toplines as well?

[Heisenberg]

Oh s**t, they're wasting money in New Hampshire. The state is not winnable, while men favor Republicans by small margins, women favor Democrats by margins much higher. And more women are still undecided, so Climbing Maggie still has room to grow. Angry New Hampshire women exist, even if they don't act that way in person, they sure do at the ballots. My guess is Florida and Arizona are absent because the primaries are yet to happen, and could change the dynamics. North Carolina and Iowa are not bad places to spend, either.

[This account no longer in use.]

If every poll shows Clinton and Hassan winning NH women by landslides, and it's true that these 'angry NH women' (or whatever pathetic little fantasy you're using now to give an excuse for Scott Brown losing) are real, wouldn't they be winning by landslides in the toplines as well?

Uh, because there's a group called men? IIRC, PPP's latest NH poll showed Clinton trailing by 15 points among men.

But if 'angry NH women' and men take up the same percentage of the electorate, with Clinton and Hassan winning women in a landslide but losing men in a landslide, wouldn't it average out to nearly a tie?

[Heisenberg]

If every poll shows Clinton and Hassan winning NH women by landslides, and it's true that these 'angry NH women' (or whatever pathetic little fantasy you're using now to give an excuse for Scott Brown losing) are real, wouldn't they be winning by landslides in the toplines as well?

Uh, because there's a group called men? IIRC, PPP's latest NH poll showed Clinton trailing by 15 points among men.

But if 'angry NH women' and men take up the same percentage of the electorate, with Clinton and Hassan winning women in a landslide but losing men in a landslide, wouldn't it average out to nearly a tie?

While women favor Hassan and men favor Ayotte, women favor Hassan by a larger margin, and more women remain undecided. That equates to a 5 point or so Hassan win.

[Higgs]

rip mark kirk

[Ljube]

Ayotte is worth fighting for.

[Xing]

Interesting that AZ, FL, and NC aren't on this list, but MO is.

I always told you so, man

LOL@thinking Climbing Maggie is beatable, though.

Maybe Blunt is more vulnerable than I thought, but not spending in the other states is foolish. I guess I can understand them waiting for the primary to be over in Florida, but not bothering to defend Arizona and North Carolina at all? Burr and McCain are favored, but definitely not safe (not to mention McCain still has a primary to deal with...)

[Heisenberg]

Ayotte is worth fighting for.

She's toast.

[IceSpear]

I'm going to guess a certain someone's reply before I read this thread:

"No amount of money can make Climbing Maggie fall. They might as well be throwing it down a sinkhole. It's a bigger waste than donating to Jeb Bush's Super PAC."

[IceSpear]

Well, I was close enough.

In all seriousness, there are some interesting choices here. Not only the fact that they omitted Kirk and Johnson, who we already knew were likely doomed, but the fact that they included MO (a race that has been under the radar for a while but has all the makings of an upset) and NV (we haven't had any idea what's going on here, this suggests it's close.)

I'm guessing NH is because they see it as the tipping point race, and they need to try to put a dent in Hassan's numbers which have recently improved. The omission of AZ is interesting...maybe they don't want to intervene and be seen as supporting McCain? Or maybe they don't want to waste time boosting McCain's image when they might have to prop up Kelli Ward later instead? A lot of interesting possibilities here.

They must not be very worried about Grassley and Burr though, possibly becaue their challengers aren't as strong as in many of these other seats.

[ElectionsGuy]

No money in Florida to rescue Rubio? or McCain in Arizona? But in Missouri? At least they're smart in trying to protect Portman/Toomey/Ayotte.

[Mr. Illini]

I don't have any problem not running ads in IL/WI - but Missouri?

[Ebsy]

I don't have any problem not running ads in IL/WI - but Missouri?

Blunt is (rightly) afraid that he could lose in a wave.

[Mr. Illini]

I don't have any problem not running ads in IL/WI - but Missouri?

Blunt is (rightly) afraid that he could lose in a wave.

DSCC already assuming a wave..?!

[Kingpoleon]

Not donating to Kirk is a good way to lose the Senate. This lark is bad news for Mark.

[Kingpoleon]

Kasich is doing fundraising for Kirk.
http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/gov-kasich-to-boost-illinois-republicans-helping-kirk-durkin/

[Gass3268]

Freedom Partners Action Fund Super PAC (Koch brothers) have cancelled their $2.2 million ad buy for August and September for Johnson

[publicunofficial]

Freedom Partners Action Fund Super PAC (Koch brothers) have cancelled their $2.2 million ad buy for August and September for Johnson

The triage begins.