IL & WI Senate races: Koch brothers cancel their backing for Johnson

[Heisenberg]

Oh s**t, they're wasting money in New Hampshire. The state is not winnable, while men favor Republicans by small margins, women favor Democrats by margins much higher. And more women are still undecided, so Climbing Maggie still has room to grow. Angry New Hampshire women exist, even if they don't act that way in person, they sure do at the ballots. My guess is Florida and Arizona are absent because the primaries are yet to happen, and could change the dynamics. North Carolina and Iowa are not bad places to spend, either.

[Heisenberg]

If every poll shows Clinton and Hassan winning NH women by landslides, and it's true that these 'angry NH women' (or whatever pathetic little fantasy you're using now to give an excuse for Scott Brown losing) are real, wouldn't they be winning by landslides in the toplines as well?

Uh, because there's a group called men? IIRC, PPP's latest NH poll showed Clinton trailing by 15 points among men.

But if 'angry NH women' and men take up the same percentage of the electorate, with Clinton and Hassan winning women in a landslide but losing men in a landslide, wouldn't it average out to nearly a tie?

While women favor Hassan and men favor Ayotte, women favor Hassan by a larger margin, and more women remain undecided. That equates to a 5 point or so Hassan win.

[Heisenberg]

Ayotte is worth fighting for.

She's toast.

[Heisenberg]

Freedom Partners Action Fund Super PAC (Koch brothers) have cancelled their $2.2 million ad buy for August and September for Johnson

Good, that race is unwinnable. Are they wasting money in New Hampshire? If so they need to get out.

[Heisenberg]

Freedom Partners Action Fund Super PAC (Koch brothers) have cancelled their $2.2 million ad buy for August and September for Johnson

Good, that race is unwinnable. Are they wasting money in New Hampshire? If so they need to get out.

WI is definitely more winnable than NH. Why are they going to waste money in NH when Climbing Maggie is ridiculously safe?

Republicans have a better chance at holding WI than NH, but that's really not saying much. Johnson seems to be saying a lot of stupid things lately, and I think he's hurting himself. If only they could sub in Reid Ribble, Rebecca Kleefisch, JB Van Hollen, or someone competent. If Kirk or Ayotte were running in Wisconsin, I'd say they would even be slightly favored.

[Heisenberg]

They need to put money into Indiana. Bayh is beatable and the senate becomes almost surely lost without the Indiana seat.

Agree. Give Indiana a Young relacement for Coats, and make sure Evan doesn't Bayh his old seat back.