The electoral vote maps today in 2008 and 2012

[Tender Branson]

2008:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jun28.html

2012:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Jun28.html

2016 is still a grey map ...

[President Johnson]

They will submit a map after the convention. I don't know why exactly, but we'll have to wait a little more. But this site actually provides the best electoral map.

[Holmes]

Heh, Ras came out with a crappy Connecticut poll around this time in 2008. What a surprise.

[skoods]

I have been following this site since I was a Junior in high school in 2004. Great site.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I have been following this site since I was a Junior in high school in 2004. Great site.

Electoral-vote was an obsession of mine in 2004 and 2008, as was the Atlas.  I was the ripe old age of 27, a newlywed, with only a little bit of gray in my beard .

When I was a junior in high school Hillarycare was being debated in Congress, and Newt was preparing his Contract with America.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nice site, yes. I was following the site four years ago. Hope they come up with a map soon.

[ElectionsGuy]

Connecticut and Oregon 'Barely Dem' in 2008? Oh man, this probably means there some junk polling going on right now as well.

[hurricanehink]

The maps were largely accurate if you remove the shading. 08's map missed Nevada (which swung heavily toward the Democrats after the financial crisis) and North Carolina (which was decided by 14,000 votes), and Florida's tie swinging to Obama. 2012 was even better at this point, only missing Iowa (whose polling remained close until Election Day). Perhaps these early polls are worth more than the experts give them credit for.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

As a Linux user since 1998 it utterly blew me away when the Votemaster revealed himself at Andy Tanenbaum.  Everyone in the geek community knew him from his raging flame wars with Linus Torvalds over kernel architecture.  That came utterly out of left field, because Tanenbaum was a) not a known political analyst of any sort, b) had been an expat for decades and c) was, in fact, a minor celebrity.

[pbrower2a]

The maps were largely accurate if you remove the shading. 08's map missed Nevada (which swung heavily toward the Democrats after the financial crisis) and North Carolina (which was decided by 14,000 votes), and Florida's tie swinging to Obama. 2012 was even better at this point, only missing Iowa (whose polling remained close until Election Day). Perhaps these early polls are worth more than the experts give them credit for.

Early polls can show trends that people from outside the state might not know. In 2008 Obama was often ahead in Indiana, a state which just doesn't ever go for a Democratic nominee for President. But I live near the Indiana line, and I then got some Indiana television... and I got the impression that Republicans were running scared. Virginia? We all knew that Virginia was solidly Republican. If it was the only former Confederate state that Jimmy Carter could not win and if Bill Clinton never won it despite seeming to be an unusually-good fit as a Democratic nominee for the state, then it was never going to go Democratic.

Polls tell us something -- like where some politicians have vulnerabilities. The common wisdom is not enough. Politicians can make more appearances in places that they think might be good for some visits. So if Indiana is within 2% of flipping Democratic, then maybe Hillary Clinton might stop by Indianapolis on the way from Albuquerque to Pittsburgh. Parties can spend resources against vulnerable opponents on the other side or shore up their own in trouble. They can also tell a politician "You're not winning there, so forget it". 

Polls can tell us if campaign pitches work.

[Tender Branson]

It's still grey.

They might as well start their maps now, with all the recent polls out ...