Hillary's margin in NY

[President Johnson]

We all know, Big Don won't be anything near a victory in the state of New York. But will he do better than Mitt did? Will he hold the Hill under 60%? I think he'll do pretty well in upstate New York, but still lose by around 57% to 40%.

[SingingAnalyst]

I'd say 60-36 Clinton over Trump in NY.

[ProudModerate2]

We all know, Big Don won't be anything near a victory in the state of New York.

Now how can you say this ?
Big Don and his "Yuge" campaign say otherwise.
You should be ashamed saying such a thing, while displaying your trump banner.
;-)

[President Johnson]

We all know, Big Don won't be anything near a victory in the state of New York.

Now how can you say this ?
Big Don and his "Yuge" campaign say otherwise.
You should be ashamed saying such a thing, while displaying your trump banner.
;-)

LOL. We have to be real. He should use his ressources with efficiency. And I have no doubt he will as a smart businessman. I still think Big Don will win the election, but he doesn't need NY.

[Human]

I think New York will be one of the few states where Donald Trump does better than Mitt Romney in.

[evergreenarbor]

I think New York will be one of the few states where Donald Trump does better than Mitt Romney in.

[skoods]

Romney lost 63-35. I can see Trump doing a bit better but not much better. With 3rd party support I could see something like 58-34 or 57-35

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Something like 60-37.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump will trend about +4% over Clinton from 2012, I predict.  Which means Clinton will still win +20% over the nation average.  If she wins by 5% nationally, that means she wins NY by 25%.  Which would be a 61-36 or 60-35 win.  Just barely over 60%.

[Xing]

Little Donny will probably do better than Romney in upstate NY and Staten Island, but he'll still lose by 20-25%.

[IceSpear]

He'll do better than Romney. Probably around a 20 point loss.

If Cruz was the nominee, we might have seen Hillary cracking 70.

[Ebsy]

I think he will lose New York by an historically large margin.

[Devils30]

Same as Romney in 2012, beats him in Staten Island, parts of western NY. Does worse in the area along the NY/VT border.

[Sir Mohamed]

My predidiction is that Hillary wins with ~61-37%. The Trumpster may do better in upstate NY, but I think that NYC will vote for Hillary in even larger numbers than for Obama.

[Virginiá]

I think he will lose New York by an historically large margin.

This. I don't think people appreciate just how Democratic New York is becoming. Democrats have snagged the youth vote at 70%+ levels since 2004 and even 64% in 2000. Every single age group but 65+ voted 60%+ Democratic, with the 65+ being 59%. There are very real structural reasons why Obama did better in 2012 than 2008 (in NY)

Simply put, New York has become an impenetrable Democratic fortress. Just because Trump does business in and resides in New York doesn't mean he somehow does better in the state. Not with these massive Democratic margins.

[Lincoln Republican]

Since Trump embraces New York values, he will do better than Romney or McCain in New York, but nowhere close to winning. 

[Redban]

I think he will lose New York by an historically large margin.

This. I don't think people appreciate just how Democratic New York is becoming. Democrats have snagged the youth vote at 70%+ levels since 2004 and even 64% in 2000. Every single age group but 65+ voted 60%+ Democratic, with the 65+ being 59%. There are very real structural reasons why Obama did better in 2012 than 2008 (in NY)

Simply put, New York has become an impenetrable Democratic fortress. Just because Trump does business in and resides in New York doesn't mean he somehow does better in the state. Not with these massive Democratic margins.

Hurricane Sandy = "very real structural reasons"?

[Virginiá]

Hurricane Sandy = "very real structural reasons"?

Believe it or not, there are existing trends that create the foundation for these kinds of margins. I'm not saying it was all due to that, of course Sandy had an effect, but it wasn't the sole reason.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Since Trump embraces New York values, he will do better than Romney or McCain in New York, but nowhere close to winning. 

Marginally better, perhaps, but, "New York values" aside, it'll still be a landslide. New York is pretty much turning into a Democratic Utah in presidential election (well, Utah under normal circumstances). The fact we have two candidates calling NY their home state doesn't really matter much, IMO. Just like Harding/Cox.

[anthonyjg]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-york/#plus

[DS0816]

Barack Obama's re-election, in 2012, had him carry New York by +28.

If Hillary Clinton wins by a stronger national margin, and if it really moves to +10 (or better), then there will be "Blue Firewall" states which will also increase Democratic support. But they will start with the Blue Firewall states which need to get past what will eventually be Hillary Clinton's national margin.

There is a suggestive ceiling from Blue Firewall states which had Democratic tilts of +15 or better (compared to Barack Obama's re-election by nearly +4). In 2012 New York, Obama performed +24 above his national margin. I would not necessarily expect Hillary Clinton to do that. But it would be reasonable if she did. If she won nationally by, say, +11 to +13, she may end up carrying her and Donald Trump's home state by +33. (Ditto states like California, Maryland, and Massachusetts.)

[Ljube]

He'll do better than Romney. Probably around a 20 point loss.

If Cruz was the nominee, we might have seen Hillary cracking 70.