How long until a non incumbent out gay man wins statewide office?

[ClimateDem]

Just as the title says.

[BuckeyeNut]

Dunno about when, but Jared Polis seems like the best candidate.

[publicunofficial]

Jim Gray, 2016, obviously.


In all seriousness, I could see Jack Reed retiring in 2020 and being replaced by David Cicilline, who's about to have his district eliminated anyway.

[Kingpoleon]

Pete Buttigieg or Chris Pappas could try in Indiana/New Hampshire in 2020.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm betting some Democrat we haven't heard of will win something in the next set of midterms, heck if it weren't for Cutler, this question wouldn't be one at all.

[ElectionsGuy]

As the above posters have mentioned, Cicilline or Polis could do it in 2020, with Cicilline being more likely if Reed retires (that's no sure bet, he'll *only* be 70). Polis basically has a 50/50 shot against Gardner.

[JMT]

As the above posters have mentioned, Cicilline or Polis could do it in 2020, with Cicilline being more likely if Reed retires (that's no sure bet, he'll *only* be 70). Polis basically has a 50/50 shot against Gardner.

I could also see Polis staying put in the house and gaining seniority and rising in the Democratic House leadership. He basically can hold his house district for as long as he wants it. While he would be a serious candidate against Gardner in 2020, it's no sure bet he wins. Cicilline, on the other hand, I could definitely see running for Senate or for Governor in the future, especially if Rhode Island loses a congressional district after the next census / redistricting and RI becomes an at-large district.

[Heisenberg]

I'm betting some Democrat we haven't heard of will win something in the next set of midterms, heck if it weren't for Cutler, this question wouldn't be one at all.

I think LePage would have still won in 2014 without Cutler. He already got 48% of the vote or so, and polling showed a few Cutler voters would have gone to LePage, and a decent number would have stayed home.

Pete Buttigieg or Chris Pappas could try in Indiana/New Hampshire in 2020.

Can't see that happening in Indiana.

As the above posters have mentioned, Cicilline or Polis could do it in 2020, with Cicilline being more likely if Reed retires (that's no sure bet, he'll *only* be 70). Polis basically has a 50/50 shot against Gardner.

I could also see Polis staying put in the house and gaining seniority and rising in the Democratic House leadership. He basically can hold his house district for as long as he wants it. While he would be a serious candidate against Gardner in 2020, it's no sure bet he wins. Cicilline, on the other hand, I could definitely see running for Senate or for Governor in the future, especially if Rhode Island loses a congressional district after the next census / redistricting and RI becomes an at-large district.

Rhode Island is expected to lose a seat next census, and become an at-large state.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Technically, it already happened, at least in Connecticut.  Kevin Lembo has been State Comptroller since 2011.

[BuckeyeNut]

Buttigieg is a good candidate, the number of Indiana voters that would care about his sexuality is lower than one might think. Lugar, Ballard, and their ilk all hated the RFRA.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

2016, Chrys Kefalas.

Probably not, in reality, but I'd love to see the opportunity for an identity-politics "milestone" like this stolen from the Democrats.

[Heisenberg]

Buttigieg is a good candidate, the number of Indiana voters that would care about his sexuality is lower than one might think. Lugar, Ballard, and their ilk all hated the RFRA.

I'm aware of that, but the reason why I think it's hard for him to win statewide is that the state has gotten more Republican than it used to be. For example, southern Indiana is trending Republican. It used to elect Demcrats like Baron Hill, but now the area (minus certain liberal pockets like Bloomington) is pretty Republican, and in 2012, a Presidential year, Mike Pence still won an open seat against a strong opponent, and Mourdock (who ironically defeated Buttigieg in the 2010 Treasurer race before Buttigieg became South Bend mayor) still got 46% of the vote in his Senate race despite his controversial remarks. An inoffensive moderate Republican should defeat him statewide. I think Ballard will run for governor in 2020 if he doesn't run for Senate in 2018.

2016, Chrys Kefalas.

Probably not, in reality, but I'd love to see the opportunity for an identity-politics "milestone" like this stolen from the Democrats.

If Cardin retires in 2018, and Hillary wins this year, I think Kefalas should run. It would be a midterm year with a Democrat in the White House, and popular Republican Governor Larry Hogan will be on top of the ticket. I know Senate races =/= Governor races, but I think it would be close, and Kefalas would have a real chance. In 2006, the last open Senate race in Maryland, Cardin only won by 10%, just 3 points more than O'Malley defeated incumbent Ehrlich, and that was a terrible year for Republicans.

[BuckeyeNut]

Buttigieg is a good candidate, the number of Indiana voters that would care about his sexuality is lower than one might think. Lugar, Ballard, and their ilk all hated the RFRA.

I'm aware of that, but the reason why I think it's hard for him to win statewide is that the state has gotten more Republican than it used to be. For example, southern Indiana is trending Republican. It used to elect Democrats like Baron Hill, but now the area (minus certain liberal pockets like Bloomington) is pretty Republican, and in 2012, a Presidential year, Mike Pence still won an open seat against a strong opponent, and Mourdock (who ironically defeated Buttigieg in the 2010 Treasurer race before Buttigieg became South Bend mayor) still got 46% of the vote in his Senate race despite his controversial remarks. An inoffensive moderate Republican should defeat him statewide. I think Ballard will run for governor in 2020 if he doesn't run for Senate in 2018.

Hill was never a particularly strong candidate, even if he fit the profile of the 9th. (Which Hill might have actually been able to win back in '12 if the district hadn't gotten significantly more Republican after the latest round of redistricting.) Ballard is a fantastic future candidate, though I'd predict he goes for Governor over Senator. Buttigieg, it's hard to say. I'm sure he will make another run statewide in the future, but which position he seeks is an unknown. He does live in Donnelly's old district, which, like the 9th, has become more Republican, but should still be winnable with a strong candidate.

Mourdock was most likely a blip. Do remember he ousted Richard Lugar in the primary, which would never have happened in any other year. As for Mike Pence, his election was the closest in the last 50 years. It should have been a relatively easy win.

[This account no longer in use.]

2016, Chrys Kefalas.

Probably not, in reality, but I'd love to see the opportunity for an identity-politics "milestone" like this stolen from the Democrats.

But Kefalas lost the primary.

[Bojack Horseman]

Probably this year, when Patrick Murphy kicks Marco Rubio's ass.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

If Mike Michaud runs for governor of Maine again in 2018, it could well be then.

[IceSpear]

Probably this year, when Patrick Murphy kicks Marco Rubio's ass.

Uh...he's not gay.

[Bojack Horseman]

Probably this year, when Patrick Murphy kicks Marco Rubio's ass.

Uh...he's not gay.

He's just closeted. That bar incident was at a gay club.

[IceSpear]

Probably this year, when Patrick Murphy kicks Marco Rubio's ass.

Uh...he's not gay.

He's just closeted. That bar incident was at a gay club.

Even if that's true, read the thread title again.

[This account no longer in use.]

Probably this year, when Patrick Murphy kicks Marco Rubio's ass.

Even if Rubio kicks Murphy's ass, for that matter.

[SATW]

2016, Chrys Kefalas.

Probably not, in reality, but I'd love to see the opportunity for an identity-politics "milestone" like this stolen from the Democrats.

he's gay? didnt know.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The correct answer is obviously 2018.

[President Johnson]

The correct answer is obviously 2018.

You forgot Mike Pence in 2012

[bagelman]

I will never cease to be ashamed that the first gay man we elect to statewide office turns out be someone as nuts as Polis, who supports the pryamid scheme bitcoin and was involved with the Russian mafia in the 1990s.

[Torrain]

I will never cease to be ashamed that the first gay man we elect to statewide office turns out be someone as nuts as Polis, who supports the pryamid scheme bitcoin and was involved with the Russian mafia in the 1990s.

The first woman ever seated in the Senate was Rebecca Latimer Felton (D-GA) a former slave-owning white supremacist.

Glass ceilings are often broken by disappointing (or awful) people. But as a more diverse community of people begin to serve in office, we’ll find more admirable representatives.