Predict the 2020 Republican primaries

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Hillary's the clear favorite now and if the election were held today, she would probably do as well if not better than Obama in 2012.  Obviously a lot can change between now and November, but it's never early to talk about 2020.  So, for the sake of this thread, let's assume Hillary Clinton has just been elected President of the United States.

Post your expectations for candidates, polling, fundraising, etc.  Then in three year's time we can bump this thread and accept our accolades because Atlas is so great at predicting things.

<snicker>


So I expect a lot of early speculation to revolve around Cruz, who would start off with a good war chest (assuming his last campaign didn't kill him financially, which I haven't heard) and top most of the early polls.  Rubio will get a lot of speculation as well, regardless if he loses his Senate seat, because the media's been coddling him since before he won his Senate seat.  Other names I expect to pop up are Joni Ernst, Cory Gardner, Ben Sasse, Tom Cotton, Susana Martinez, Nikki Haley, and some leftovers from this year (Walker, Kasich, etc.).  Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker will also be mentioned and likely included in polls if they're both reelected in 2018, but they will remain consistently at bottom levels of support and decline to run.

Cotton, being ambitious as he is, will declare by mid-summer.  Gardner could be a potential late entry if enough establishment GOPers and donors can't find an alternative.  Rubio might be damaged goods at this point, but he'll be mid-tier in early polls.  He will almost certainly declare assuming he's still in the Senate.  Cotton and Gardner's seats will both be up at this time, as well, and will drop out to focus on holding their own seats if their campaigns see little movement.

Haley and Martinez will at least explore a run.  Ernst will remain mum about speculation until she decides to formally announce.  Sasse will start out with modest poll numbers, but will rise enough for him to stay in through most of the primaries.  Failing expectations, Ernst and Sasse will be pressured to drop out early to focus on their reelection campaigns; Sasse less so because he doesn't hold a competitive seat.

Gun to my head: the final top candidates will be Cruz, Gardner, and Sasse.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

TL;DR - Paul Ryan is the current front-runner.


In order to predict what will happen to the Republican Party, you have to predict what will become of the Democratic Party.  I have to assume the following earth-shaking things will occur in the next four years:

1. Hillary Clinton is elected
2. Bernie Sanders has a major impact on the platform (this is already happening)
3. The SCOTUS balance tilts liberal
4. Democratic control of the Senate

The following could occur:

5. Overturn of part of all of Citizens United
6. Democratic control of the House
7. The $15 minimum wage
8. An attempt at Single-Payer healthcare
9. An attempt at Free/Affordable higher education for all
10. An attempt at Student Loan reform/forgiveness

What this means for 2020 is a GOP in total crisis, one that was shattered by Trump, toothless, lacking (but also liberated from) PAC funding, but with a coalition of forces opposed to everything the New Left Democrats stand for.  Backlash against the leftist reforms mentioned above.  As happens in American politics, the pendulum swings.  Social wedge issues will no longer be a thing, as Millennials will now be a firmly entrenched bloc of voters who accept LGBTQ and women's rights as a given.  However, there will be challenges to the minimum wage, tax structures, regulations, healthcare, entitlements, etc, from a more affluent and older Millennial cohort, and a younger cohort who grew up better off.

I think that by this time, everyone involved in the 2016 clusterf--- will be embarrassed and disqualified in 2020.  Paul Ryan, who was never a candidate, will face a lot of pressure to run, especially if he coordinates opposition to the New Left with grace and aplomb.  From the ashes of the old GOP new leadership will emerge as well.  There will be a lot of people who don't like what the Bernie movement stands for.

Oddly enough, a lot of people in the Trump camp - anti-establishment, pro-reform - may become Democrats in the new alignment.  If it becomes clear that the Democrats are cleaning up corruption, becoming more protectionist, and fighting for their interests, they will attract some folks from the Trump movement.  But those who are Trumpists because they are racist and xenophobic will still be more at home with the Republicans.

[IceSpear]

I think no matter what, these people would run:

Ryan
Cruz
Rubio
Walker
Sasse
Cotton

[libertpaulian]

Ryan- Duh.  He's been acting as the GOP's Voice of Sanity throughout this whole cycle, which foreshadows a run in 2020.

Rubio- I mean, he doesn't have anything better to do.  The only reason he's running for his Senate seat now is because he probably couldn't find a meaningful or productive job in the private sector.

Cruz- Ego.

Walker- Gotta have that bland Midwesterner.

Sasse- The #NeverTrump starter will be viewed as another Party Savior.  If Trump loses, he'll get to say "I toldja so!" endlessly to the GOP.  Same if Trump wins and his Presidency ends up being a disaster.

Cotton- Bushist foreign policy has to continue, right?

Sandoval- The Moderate Hero to replace Kasich and Huntsman.

Amash- Rand Paul will decide to forego a run in 2020 because he feels it's time someone younger and more appealing takes up the libertarian mantle.  Not to mention he probably feels the American public is sick of hearing about the Paul family after three election cycles (not to mention the midterms!).

[Pericles]

Well the runner-up usually wins next time. Rubio is a likely candidate, and Cruz is almost certain. Kasich is also possible. Either Rubio or Cruz I say.

[Kingpoleon]

I stand by this:

Senator John Kasich - 55.6%
Senator Benjamin Sasse- 24.9%*
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich - 19.5%**

*Dropped out May 28, two days after losing Oregon with under 40%
**Dropped out March 24, after losing Utah

The only way the Republicans could lose is by nominating Cruz or someone similar. Even Gingrich could probably beat Hillary in 2020.

[Mike Thick]

Newt Gingrich would be 77 in 2020. Isn't that more than a bit too old?

[Kingpoleon]

Newt Gingrich would be 77 in 2020. Isn't that more than a bit too old?

I think if Gingrich is seriously considering being Vice President for two terms under Trump, he might essentially pledge to serve just one term and space exploration, which would both be very attractive to young voters.

[Mike Thick]

Newt Gingrich would be 77 in 2020. Isn't that more than a bit too old?

I think if Gingrich is seriously considering being Vice President for two terms under Trump, he might essentially pledge to serve just one term and space exploration, which would both be very attractive to young voters.

I suppose, but there's something that just seems off about taking office at an age not much younger than Reagan was when he left office.

[Kingpoleon]

If he thinks Trump will win, why would he even think about being on the ticket for eight years? And if he thinks Trump probably can't but it will be close, then why would he accept it unless he wants a launching pad for 2020?

[Mike Thick]

If he thinks Trump will win, why would he even think about being on the ticket for eight years? And if he thinks Trump probably can't but it will be close, then why would he accept it unless he wants a launching pad for 2020?

Because he craves attention before he finally retires into obscurity, and has nothing to lose.

[Mister Mets]

I think the main candidates will be...

Paul Ryan: Likely frontrunner. He'll have spent his time essentially as the leader of the opposition.

Mike Pence: Will try to be the candidate of christian conservatives, establishment types and Donald Trump voters.

Ted Cruz: He'll continue to run as an uncompromising conservative, and as the runner-up from the 2016 election.

Sarah Palin: If Trump could do it, she could make a go of it as the candidate of less-educated Republicans. It would also be weird to see three former candidates for veep running against each other.

Ben Sasse: I could see him running as a new face. He has the wonkish credentials of Paul Ryan, without ever compromising on Donald Trump.

[hram924]

How do i create that map?

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

I wish I knew how to? It seems Green, Red or Yellow are available

[Figueira]

How do i create that map?

https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php

You can add more colors by changing the "number of independents."

[Simfan34]

Sandoval, Haslam, or Rauner (if still around), could be the inheritors of the Weaver-ite McCain-Huntsman-Kasich tradition come 2020. Either one would almost invariably have my support, but as for their chances of winning...

The legacy of Trump will undoubtedly be a salient, if not the salient issue. Trump himself will ensure as much.

[Medal506]

2020 Republican Primary

Ted Cruz 55.8%
Bruce Rauner 22.4%
Tom Cotton 14.5%

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Pence vs. Sandoval vs. Rauner

It goes to the convention, but Pence wins easily on the 2nd ballot by offering Rauner VP.

If two of the top three Republican candidates are pro-abortion, then I'd probably not be a Republican anymore.  No way that map happens!!

[Seneca]

Trump isn't going to go away. I could see him creating a cable news competitor with Breitbart, Alex Jones, and company. The 2018 midterms may well see another slaughter of incumbents, as the old Tea Party radicals are replace by the new Trumpets. These are the people I expect will matter in 2020.

Donald Trump - All speculation will center around this man. Will he run again? I expect he'll encourage that speculation as much as possible, as having people call on him to give it another go will certain boost his ego. But ultimately he'll decide against running again; there's no way he exposes himself to as much scrutiny as this election. Verdict: Won't run

Paul Ryan - He may be one of the smartest politicians in the GOP stable. Or maybe he just doesn't have a spine. Ryan will not nearly be radical enough for the base in 2020. I expect he'll face a difficult primary fight in 2018. I'm betting he'll survive that, and in the run up to 2020 he'll have all the party leaders calling on him to run, to be the establishment standard bearer. And I think he's afraid that if he runs, he'll suffer the same fate as Jeb Bush. Defeated by the rabid base, made to look a fool, ejected out the bottom of GOP politics. I think he'll demur rather early to give another establishment candidate a chance to consolidate support. Verdict: Won't run

Mike Pence - After defeat in 2016, he won't have a job to go back to. Pence clearly is ambitious, there were rumors he would run for President back in 2012. I can't see him passing up the opportunity provided by his VP nomination. He's naturally an evangelical candidate, and has quite the Tea Party pedigree, but in this new Republican Party I could see him positioning himself as a compromise establishment-evangelical candidate. He'll be a top-tier candidate, but I don't see him going all the way in a Republican Party bearing the stamp of Trump. Verdict: Top-tier candidate

Ted Cruz - What he lacks in smarts, Cruz makes up for with raw ambition. He'll run again in 2020, no doubt about it. He'll be trying to position himself as the evangelical conservative candidate again, though I can see him adopting some Trumpest rhetoric in an attempt to take a slice out of that demographic. He'll announce early and start strong, but ultimately he's a flawed candidate who will be facing more competition for that evangelical vote; I expect he'll do even worse than in 2016. Verdict: Also-ran

John Kasich - Word is he's already got his eye on running again in 2016. He'll emerge from this election as one of the Republican politicians not tainted by supporting Trump. While that may help him with sections of the donor class, it means that he won't stand much of a shot in the actual primary contests. I expect he'll start well in early polling due to name recognition but drop to single digits by the time we get to Iowa. Verdict: Also-ran

Marco Rubio - I expect him to lose the senate race this year. He'll make some noises about running for President in 2020 to stay relevant, a la Sarah Palin, but he's smart enough to know that no one branded as a loser stands a chance in presidential politics. I could see him running for Governor in 2018. He's young enough though that we might see him again in 2024 or even 2028. Verdict: Won't run

Tom Cotton - The youngest member of the senate is clearly itching to be president. Already he's touring the early states, building relationships with local politicians and party leaders in Iowa, South Carolina, and elsewhere. He's going to run, and he's going to pick up quite a lot of support when he does so. I can see him pulling from both the evangelical and trumpet sections of the party. His main hurdle is his own personality; he's no showman but rather stiff and academic in character, not the kind of persona that trumpets gravitate towards. Verdict: Top-tier candidate

Joni Ernst - She'll stand out from the field as the only woman candidate for the Republican nomination. Whether that helps or hinders her in 2020 remains to be seen. I don't expect her to go very far; she'll stake everything on Iowa and drop out after losing it. Verdict: Also-ran

Ben Sasse - The face of the #NeverTrump movement will certainly have people calling for him to run in 2020. And while he's clearly ambitious enough to run for President one day, I expect the 2018 midterms will show him the writing on the wall; no candidate branded as "establishment" will win in 2020. He also is up for reelection to the senate in 2020. Expect him to let the rumors circulate for a while before finally stating he won't run (probably for "family reasons," he has young kids) so as to set himself up for 2024. Verdict: Won't run

Joe Walsh - This Tea Party one-term congressman-turned right-wing talk show host has already declared his intention to run should Clinton be elected. I could see him signing on to the Trump/Breitbart/Alex Jones cable channel and building a national persona for himself that way. If he manages to do so, I expect he'll be a force to be reckoned with when he runs, particularly if he gets Trump's endorsement. However, he's not wealthy like Trump and any attempt to imitate Trump's personality will probably ring hollow. I expect he'll flame out early, like Cruz, and have fallen to single digits by the time the primaries get going. Verdict: Also-ran

Justin Amash - The Libertarian standard-bearer in 2016, Amash ought to out-perform Rand's disastrous showing this past year. While he might do better than the Pauls, he won't win in today's GOP. Verdict: Also-ran

Nikki Haley - There will be speculation around her running after her second term as governor ends in 2018. I think she'll dip a toe in the water, maybe even make an exploratory committee, but eventually decide that the support for her is not there and make the smart decision to stay out of the fray. Verdict: Won't run

Bruce Rauner - This former (by 2020) governor of Illinois will be fighting for the same sliver of votes as John Kasich. As a fresh face he might do a little better than Kasich, but I doubt he'll make much of an impact. Verdict: Also ran

Paul LePage - This Trump-esque governor will be looking for a new gig after his second term as Maine's head honcho expires in 2018. Why not run for President? He'll be 72, but 70 is the new 60. LePage is a question mark for me. He has the bluster to pull the Trumpets, but is that enough? I'll say he flames out, but he could very well win in the 2020 landscape. Verdict: Also-ran

Michael Flynn - The former Lt. General thrust himself into politics with that speech for Trump at the RNC. Fascists love a military man and I expect Flynn will have a lot of frogs whispering in his ear to run. I bet he will, moreover I bet he'll take the primaries by storm and be the GOP's nominee in 2020. Verdict: Nominee

[Enduro]

I see Paul, Ryan, Pence, Cruz, and Amash as the frontrunners right now.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Paul Ryan will probably not run if he remains speaker, as that job rarely makes you popular. If he somehow manages to quit the speakership and remain relevant though, I can see him having a shot.
Ted Cruz, and John Kasich will run for sure. I like to think that Kasich has a chance, but I doubt he would- though I think he will do better than in 2016. Cruz will flame out, the endorsement fiasco will haunt him and make him look even more dishonest.
Tom Cotton will probably run as well, and Rubio as I think he will keep his seat. As will Justin Amash.
We're probably going to get some fringe Trumpist like Paul Le Page, maybe even Rudy Giuliani if he truly went that mad, but I doubt they would go above single digits. Trump was a special person, and can't be imitated.
If Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio aren't in, I could see Nikki Haley running as well.
As for the winner, imo it will be between Tom Cotton and the main establishment standard-bearer, Ryan or Haley.

[Grassroots]

Michael Flynn - The former Lt. General thrust himself into politics with that speech for Trump at the RNC. Fascists love a military man and I expect Flynn will have a lot of frogs whispering in his ear to run. I bet he will, moreover I bet he'll take the primaries by storm and be the GOP's nominee in 2020. Verdict: Nominee

LMAO