Nevada continues to drift away from Republicans
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  Nevada continues to drift away from Republicans
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Author Topic: Nevada continues to drift away from Republicans  (Read 1650 times)
Gass3268
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« on: June 29, 2016, 08:53:58 AM »

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Really hard to see how Trump (or Heck for that matter) overcomes this growing disadvantage.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2016, 12:05:22 PM »

The non-white population is simply growing too fast in Nevada for Republicans to have a shot anymore - Not after Trump. Even if they could have won it this cycle, Trump has absolutely ruined the GOP in the eyes of minorities and by the time a reasonable Republican comes around, perhaps in 2020, it'll be too late. Nevada's electorate will have diversified even further and they will not be hospitable to a Republican presidential candidate after what Trump has done.

The GOP might be better served investing their resources in the rust belt for a long-term electoral strategy.
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Holmes
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« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2016, 12:37:15 PM »

Fwiw, the DCCC has an internal with Clinton up 10% in NV-03.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2016, 12:40:50 PM »

There have been no recent Nevada polls. Indeed the last poll I have of the Presidential race  (from last year) has Trump winning Nevada. But this makes sense.

In any event, many of the casino workers and people in related businesses (like restaurants and hotels) are Hispanic. This may hurt Donald Trump badly.

Nevada was more conservative when ranching interests dominated. That is over. Outside of Clark (Las Vegas), Washoe (Reno), and Carson City, Nevada is about as Republican as Idaho. Of course the population is heavily in Reno-Sparks, Carson City, and Greater Las Vegas. Few states have so much of their populated concentrated in so little of the state as does Nevada. Alaska, maybe. Even Utah has its population spread out along the I-15 corridor. Nevada has no highly-populated corridor.

Ranch areas of Nevada are still very conservative. They no longer dominate statewide politics.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2016, 06:40:00 PM »

I hear some suggestions that Trump might challenge Nevada because of his presumed potential in Clark and Reno, the most populous areas in the state -- after all, Trump's name is nearly synonymous with casinos, and casinos are indelibly connected with Vegas. Still, I never saw the evidence to support this thought.

Trump's hotel in Las Vegas is one of the very few flashy high-rise resorts that isn't actually a casino.  Plus, the only people who would make any such cognitive associations are clearly not Nevada residents, and thus don't matter.
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2016, 07:16:13 PM »

An 8 point lead in NV-3 is probably an 11-12 point lead statewide for HRC
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2016, 07:26:59 PM »

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/748155650979434501
Ralston agrees, high single digit Nevada Clinton lead.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2016, 07:58:37 PM »

Of course. It makes no sense that Hillary spent money in NV, but not in PA. NV will not vote Republican, period. If the polls show it close, it's probably just due to undersampling Hispanics yet again.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2016, 08:01:44 PM »

Highly contested Senate race in Nevada. She's trying to lift all Dem coattails by tarring Trump.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: June 29, 2016, 08:02:35 PM »

Highly contested Senate race in Nevada. She's trying to lift all Dem coattails by tarring Trump.

McGinty needs more help than CCM.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: June 29, 2016, 08:07:20 PM »

Highly contested Senate race in Nevada. She's trying to lift all Dem coattails by tarring Trump.

McGinty needs more help than CCM.

McGinty isn't going to be the 50th or 51st seat though. It's probably the 54th. So if McGinty wins, great. If she loses, who cares? Hillary doesn't need her.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2016, 08:15:03 PM »

Highly contested Senate race in Nevada. She's trying to lift all Dem coattails by tarring Trump.

McGinty needs more help than CCM.

McGinty isn't going to be the 50th or 51st seat though. It's probably the 54th. So if McGinty wins, great. If she loses, who cares? Hillary doesn't need her.

The Democratic establishment has an obligation to put everything they have into this seat after all the crap they pulled in the primary. Unfortunately, it would be just like them to go all in for McGinty for the sake of settling an old grudge, only to throw her under the bus the second her purpose has been fulfilled. *sigh*

I'm honestly starting to believe the national Democrats couldn't care less if Toomey wins re-election or not.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2016, 08:16:55 PM »

Highly contested Senate race in Nevada. She's trying to lift all Dem coattails by tarring Trump.

McGinty needs more help than CCM.

McGinty isn't going to be the 50th or 51st seat though. It's probably the 54th. So if McGinty wins, great. If she loses, who cares? Hillary doesn't need her.

The Democratic establishment has an obligation to put everything they have into this seat after all the crap they pulled in the primary. Unfortunately, it would be just like them to go all in for McGinty for the sake of settling an old grudge, only to throw her under the bus the second her purpose has been fulfilled. *sigh*

I'm honestly starting to believe the national Democrats couldn't care less if Toomey wins re-election or not.

Agreed. Obama, Biden, etc better work their butts off for McGinty.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #13 on: June 29, 2016, 09:15:38 PM »
« Edited: June 29, 2016, 09:25:27 PM by Virginia »

McGinty isn't going to be the 50th or 51st seat though. It's probably the 54th. So if McGinty wins, great. If she loses, who cares? Hillary doesn't need her.

Wulfric, that logic makes no sense. Democrats / Hillary know full well that if they don't pick up as many seats as possible this cycle, then they will be at a much higher risk of losing the Senate again in 2018. How are they supposed to confirm federal judges and fill possible USSC seats if they lose the Senate in 2018? They have every incentive to pick up as many seats as possible, and PA is winnable for them this year, so if something is lacking in that race (funding or support from Clinton), then it won't be due to DNC folks saying "meh, we don't really need it anyway."

And I don't understand what you mean by "isn't going to be the 50th or 51st seat", there is no order to this, unless you want to say that IL and WI are sure things and would definitely count as the 47th and 48th seats. Atlas is really going overboard with this "if they win this state, they've already won"-logic. The combinations of states people are using this logic for is getting quite amusing.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #14 on: June 29, 2016, 09:20:21 PM »

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/us/politics/priorities-usa-hillary-clinton-ad-campaign.html?_r=0

The PAC announced a few days ago it's up in PA.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/06/hillary-clinton-pennsylvania-ads-224949

Politico reported the campaign is up too, though the $ is small now.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2016, 10:02:10 PM »

Nevada's been drifting away from them for years now. Trump's unpopularity among Latinos is only exacerbating the problem.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: June 29, 2016, 11:14:45 PM »
« Edited: June 29, 2016, 11:18:12 PM by Dwarven Dragon »

McGinty isn't going to be the 50th or 51st seat though. It's probably the 54th. So if McGinty wins, great. If she loses, who cares? Hillary doesn't need her.

Wulfric, that logic makes no sense. Democrats / Hillary know full well that if they don't pick up as many seats as possible this cycle, then they will be at a much higher risk of losing the Senate again in 2018. How are they supposed to confirm federal judges and fill possible USSC seats if they lose the Senate in 2018? They have every incentive to pick up as many seats as possible, and PA is winnable for them this year, so if something is lacking in that race (funding or support from Clinton), then it won't be due to DNC folks saying "meh, we don't really need it anyway."

And I don't understand what you mean by "isn't going to be the 50th or 51st seat", there is no order to this, unless you want to say that IL and WI are sure things and would definitely count as the 47th and 48th seats. Atlas is really going overboard with this "if they win this state, they've already won"-logic. The combinations of states people are using this logic for is getting quite amusing.

I'm not saying IL or WI are sure things. I'm saying that if PA flips despite McGinty being a TERRIBLE CANDIDATE (Honestly, she would have placed third in the primary if Obama hadn't bent over backward to make people vote for her), it would be such an accomplishment for Dems that it just wouldn't make sense unless IL, WI, NH, OH, FL, AZ, and NC were flipping too (and Holds for CO/NV of course).

Edit: Oh, and Schumer has said he's open to killing the SCOTUS filibuster. I'm not 100% sure it would get the needed 51 votes because of the 5 romney-staters and the fact that FEINSTEIN had to be whipped into supporting the filibuster elimination for lower courts and the cabinet. But if it goes through, Hillary's fine in terms of SCOTUS. No, she probably wouldn't get a majority for Goodwin Liu or similar. But Garland or Srinivasan would be fine.
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andrew_c
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« Reply #17 on: June 30, 2016, 03:35:02 AM »

Nevada's been drifting away from them for years now. Trump's unpopularity among Latinos is only exacerbating the problem.

Trump's the final nail in the coffin for Nevada Republicans.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #18 on: June 30, 2016, 07:12:53 AM »

It has been over in Nevada since 2006 at the latest, but because Latino voting patterns are so erratic with respect to turnout, the GOP has continued to remain relevant in non-presidential elections all the same. It may be another 10-15 years from Nevada's lean actually shows up to the same degree in midterm elections.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: June 30, 2016, 07:18:48 AM »

It has been over in Nevada since 2006 at the latest, but because Latino voting patterns are so erratic with respect to turnout, the GOP has continued to remain relevant in non-presidential elections all the same. It may be another 10-15 years from Nevada's lean actually shows up to the same degree in midterm elections.

It would also help if the Democrats, you know, actually run a semi-serious campaign for Governor. Probablu would have helped with midterm downballot races.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #20 on: June 30, 2016, 07:25:59 AM »

I'd expect Clinton to win Nevada by double digits, not 5-6 points like Ralston suggests.
Then again when Obama won it by 12 in 2008 no pollster had predicted such a wide margin.
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Holmes
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« Reply #21 on: June 30, 2016, 12:01:49 PM »

I'd expect Clinton to win Nevada by double digits, not 5-6 points like Ralston suggests.
Then again when Obama won it by 12 in 2008 no pollster had predicted such a wide margin.

To be fair, the housing crash really helped Obama in Nevada in 2008. The market had recovered some in 2012, hence the trend against him in 2012, but with demographic changes moving quickly in the state and with Trump, I'd also say a double digit win is probable.
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hopper
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« Reply #22 on: July 01, 2016, 12:57:18 PM »

Nevada have been long gone since 2008, a moderate republican like Kasich could've had a chance,
Yeah with the right Republican Candidate the GOP could make competitive Nevada in a Presidential Race but Trump is not the right candidate.
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hopper
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« Reply #23 on: July 01, 2016, 12:59:03 PM »

Of course. It makes no sense that Hillary spent money in NV, but not in PA. NV will not vote Republican, period. If the polls show it close, it's probably just due to undersampling Hispanics yet again.
What past undersampling of Hispanics are you referring too? The 2010 Senate Race between Reid and Angle?
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Holmes
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« Reply #24 on: July 01, 2016, 01:10:01 PM »

How can people seriously say that NV is drifting away from the GOP while ignoring the much stronger Democratic trend in New Hampshire?! 

Because we're not even discussing New Hampshire.
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